律动BlockBeats

TL;DR
· Citi’s July 24 report finds that low inventories of NAND and DRAM still support an upward cycle in memory.
· AI agents are driving up KV cache demand, and CMX and near-GPU SSDs are starting to consume more NAND.
· Samsung and SK hynix remain beneficiaries of the storage market upswing, but weakening consumer demand, capacity expansions, and HBM certification may affect the pace.
In a global semiconductor report released on July 24, Citi concluded that the upcycle for memory has not ended. The most critical basis is not smartphone demand; rather, both NAND and DRAM inventories are clearly below normal levels, and AI servers’ demand for KV cache and near-GPU storage continues to expand.

BlockBeats report: On July 27, Hyperliquid testnet recently introduced a new feature called “stars.” The feature introduces an optional trading address whitelist mechanism for the HIP-3 DEX. Deployers can restrict trading so that only whitelisted addresses can open positions or add to existing positions. The current testnet whitelist size limit is 10,000 addresses. Addresses that have not been authorized can still top up accounts and submit orders that are limited to reducing positions, in order to close positions or lower existing ones.
Community members believe the feature could expand the application scenarios of the HIP-3 DEX. For example, tokenized stocks, real-world assets (RWA), institutional indices, and other regulated products could use an address whitelist to allow trading only by users who have completed identity verification (KYC) or meet access requirements. At the same time, the new market could initially open for testing to market makers, partners, or community members to reduce the risk of garbage trading, wash trading, or malicious manipulation in the early market stage. The design also allows non-whitelisted users to continue reducing positions, which helps prevent users from being unable to exit their holdings due to permission restrictions.

BlockBeats message: On July 27, according to monitoring by Hyperinsight, the whale at 0x004e, which traded heavily over the previous three months, was focused on BTC. Today it made its first move out of the crypto market, shifting to Changxin Technology’s CXMT.
This giant whale began setting up CXMT short positions in batches at noon. As of the time of publication, it holds 500,000 CXMT short contracts per tranche at a 2x ratio, with a position value of approximately $3.533 million, built at an average entry price of $7.47.
As CXMT has fallen to $7.0669, this short position is currently up by about $204,900, with a return rate of approximately 10.96%. The liquidation price is $13.58. This address has allocated about $3.599 million in margin to the per-tranche positions, and there are currently no outstanding unfilled limit orders.

Original title: (Five Years Ago, She Heavily Invested in Changxin)
Original author: Liu Bo, i nvestment community
A milestone moment.
On the evening of July 23, Changxin Technology (688825.SH) announced that it will list on the STAR Market on July 27. The IPO offer price is 8.66 yuan per share, with plans to raise about 58.0 billion yuan—meaning the largest IPO in STAR Market history is about to ring the bell.
What outsiders may not know is that in this narrative of China’s storage industry rising, a female investor has emerged—Dr. Peng Gui’e (Polly), Managing Partner of Hape n Tech. Five years ago, under immense pressure, it was she who placed a near 900-million- RMB-sized investment—the largest single stake—going against the tide to heavily invest in Changxin Technology.

BlockBeats News, July 27: According to Hyperinsight monitoring, after a major whale starting with 0xa314 saw a surge in crude oil prices, it adjusted its positions to go long WTI and short Brent, forming a cross-asset paired trade with a total notional size of about $15 million, or with expectations that WTI would continue its relative strength.
From July 14 to 23, on Hyperliquid, WTI and Brent rose by about 16.4% and 13.1%, respectively; WTI clearly outperformed. The whale then established about 91,000 WTI long contracts and expanded its Brent short position to about 100,000 contracts.
After geopolitical risk cooled, both types of crude oil simultaneously pulled back. WTI fell slightly more than Brent, and the paired trade failed to materialize. Since the cost of establishing the WTI long position was higher, its losses also exceeded Brent short gains.

BlockBeats message: On July 27, economists predict that against the backdrop of renewed fighting in the Middle East and another spike in energy prices, the Bank of England will “take a tough stance” in this week’s meeting, but will keep interest rates unchanged.
Since the June 6 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, the breakdown of the Iran-Iraq ceasefire agreement has pushed global oil prices back to around $100 per barrel, while European natural gas prices have also surged to the highest level since the outbreak of the conflict. If shipping routes in the Gulf region continue to be disrupted, oil prices may rise further. The UK economy performed better than the Monetary Policy Committee had expected in the initial phase of the conflict: within the three months to May, GDP grew by 0.7%. There are currently few signs that the energy shock will trigger more persistent price pressures. CPI has been below expectations for three consecutive months, falling to 2.6% in June. Wage growth, one of the main sources of inflation pressure, has slowed, and price increases for food have also eased.

TL;DR
· Ahead of the July meeting, interest rate futures once priced in more than a 30% probability of a rate hike.
· The disagreement is whether the oil price, employment, and inflation stickiness will force the Fed to abandon the rate-cut narrative.
· Related underlyings: US dollar, US Treasuries, gold, Bitcoin, the Nasdaq index, Brent crude oil, WTI.
The Fed will hold its policy meeting on July 28–29. Before the meeting, the interest rate futures market temporarily priced the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in July at more than 30%.
This pricing does not align with most macroeconomic forecasts. In the June FOMC statement, it reiterated that the target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%. According to related Bloomberg reports and market survey interpretations, most economists still expect no action in July.

A deal involving a GPU usually comes close to the finish line by the time the shipment goes out. The customer places an order, the supplier delivers the chips, and the revenue shows up in the financial statements. But around the latest reports about U.S. AI company OpenAI’s data center in Ohio, what’s being discussed is a different kind of relationship. According to reports by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, NVIDIA is in talks to provide a guarantee to help finance OpenAI’s capacity rental. After the chips are sold, the supplier may also have to vouch for whether the customer can keep paying the rental over the long term.
The reports mention a guarantee amount of about $250 billion and project figures such as 10GW. They have not yet been cross-confirmed by any public documents from NVIDIA, OpenAI, or the project financiers, so they cannot be treated as terms that have already been finalized. But what’s most interesting about this rumor is that it isn’t really about whether any particular number is big enough. A guarantee means that the chip maker may have moved from being “the shovel seller” to taking a seat at the table where the customer raises money to build a mining facility.

TL;DR
· Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating for MiniMax, setting a 12-month target price of HK$860, which is 331.5% higher than the July 23 closing price.
· The bet hinges on M3 call volume, the inference cost of M3 Pro, the launch of new H3 multimodal products, and expectations for the Hong Kong stock connect.
· MiniMax still needs to prove its ARR growth and path to profitability; cash burn, model competition, and content risks are the key constraints.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its “Buy” rating for MiniMax Group (0100.HK) around July 24, with a 12-month target price of HK$860. Based on the July 23 closing price of HK$199.30, this target price implies upside of approximately 331.5%.

BlockBeats message: On July 27, SK hynix’s record-setting listing in the U.S. boosted a strong rebound in the South Korean won. This also provided new impetus for Korean authorities, prompting exporters to bring overseas U.S. dollars back into the country. SK hynix raised $26.5 billion in this listing. Its actions of selling U.S. dollars on the market laid the groundwork for the subsequent strengthening of the won.
At a meeting last week, South Korea’s Deputy Minister of Finance, Heo Chang-don, urged exporters to convert a larger share of their overseas earnings into won and to repatriate funds held abroad back into the country. SK hynix’s decision to sell U.S. dollars shows that the actions of a single company can be enough to influence market direction. This likely further strengthened the authorities’ determination: rather than simply relying on foreign exchange reserves, they should accelerate a plan that has been underway for months—leveraging large exporting companies to bolster the local currency. The core logic of this strategy is that when the cost of direct intervention is too high, capital flows at the corporate level can serve as a substitute.