Bit Round

🚨 Trump is set to appoint the next head of the Fed. According to Polymarket, Kevin Warsh is in pole position. Markets don't like it. Neither do I. And it's no coincidence. Warsh is not a pro-market choice. It's a choice of institutional credibility after fifteen years of monetary drift. Since 2008, the Fed is no longer a central bank. It's an asset insurer. Liquidity at the slightest stress, managed volatility, markets under constant life support. The Fed put has changed everything. Warsh is among those who believe that a market that no longer corrects... is no longer a market. Theoretically, his appointment means: less automatic intervention, less preventive support, a return to a strict mandate. 🟠 For Bitcoin, the message is ambiguous and this is precisely where it gets interesting. In the short term, a less accommodating Fed is not a favorable wind for risky assets, BTC included. Less marginal liquidity, more monetary discipline: this is not the “number go up” scenario. But in the medium/long term, the picture changes. A return of monetary constraint, a Fed less willing to monetize budgetary imbalances, strengthens the thesis of Bitcoin as a non-sovereign, rare, and politically neutral asset. The paradox is here: if Warsh fails and fiscal dominance prevails, BTC benefits from monetary discredit. If he succeeds and imposes credible discipline, BTC suffers in the short term… but gains structural legitimacy. In other words: Bitcoin does not win because the Fed is strong. Bitcoin wins when the system shows its limits. The next 4 years are likely to be anything but linear. #WhoIsNextFedChair