The market is showing a clear split — some names are pushing higher while others are facing sharp selling. $CLO , $CYS and $KII are standing out on the upside, while several others are losing momentum.
This is exactly where I start watching volume, liquidity and follow-through instead of chasing the biggest green candle.
I’m watching the Strait of Hormuz closely because the latest U.S.–Iran signals are keeping energy markets on edge.
Trump says no Iran talks are happening, the naval blockade is active, and the Strait of Hormuz remains open. That means the situation is tense, but it has not yet become a full shipping choke.
Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil flows, so even a partial disruption could push crude and tanker rates sharply higher, feeding into inflation and broader risk markets.
CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a 25bp hike next month at just 30.6%, down from around 40% before the latest data. The Fed holding at 3.50–3.75% remains the clear base case at 65%+.
The data is doing the talking: CPI cooled to 3.4%, July PPI was flat, retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, UMich consumer confidence dropped to 51, and jobless claims moved higher. Mortgage rates also broke their 5-week climb. 📊
Hawks are still pushing back, with Hamaker arguing that policy “isn’t restrictive enough,” but the bond market appears to be leaning the other way.
For risk assets, a dovish September could give BTC and gold more room to move independently. September 2024 and September 2025 cuts also followed softer summer conditions.
Next major watch: FOMC minutes. 30.6% → 25% could materially change the macro setup. 🧊
This is a screenshot of a crypto exchange app showing a tokenized stock perpetual (GDXUSDT — a perp tracking VanEck's GDX gold miners ETF). Trading is currently closed, with a countdown showing it reopens in 8h 45m 20s, and it's flagged "Overnight." The underlying stock ($GDX ) is shown trading at $90.90, +1.12%.
What did you want me to help with here — are you asking me to explain what this screen is showing, or is there something specific you want done with it (like tracking the countdown, analyzing the trade, etc.)? #GDX
$BANK — is showing consolidation near multi-month lows after a sharp rejection from the 0.3750 zone. Buyers/Sellers need to regain control and confirm the structure.
Liquidity has been tested near the 0.0346 low, and the reaction from this zone will be critical. Holding 0.0346 could trigger a recovery toward the previous structure above.
$GMEB — is showing a pullback after tapping resistance near 18.80, cooling off within a tight range. Buyers/Sellers need to regain control and confirm the structure.
EP 18.68–18.75 TP1 18.85 TP2 19.04 TP3 19.28 SL 18.55
Support has been tested near 18.66–18.72, and the reaction from this zone will be critical. Holding 18.66 could trigger a continuation toward the previous structure above.
$VANRY — is showing a prolonged downtrend near fresh lows. Buyers/Sellers need to regain control and confirm the structure.
EP 0.00091–0.00094 TP1 0.00102 TP2 0.00112 TP3 0.00128 SL 0.00087
Liquidity/support has been tested near 0.000901–0.000929, and the reaction from this zone will be critical. Holding 0.000901 could trigger a recovery toward the previous structure above.
$VIC — is showing a rebound from a sharp selloff. Buyers/Sellers need to regain control and confirm the structure.
EP 0.0086–0.0090 TP1 0.0098 TP2 0.0105 TP3 0.0117 SL 0.0081
Liquidity/support has been defended near 0.0073–0.0085, and the reaction from this zone will be critical. Holding 0.0085 could trigger a recovery toward the previous structure above.
$XPL — price is stabilizing near the recent base after holding the 0.07200 support area.
EP.0.07700–0.07850
TP1 0.08000
TP2 0.08400
TP3 0.08950
SL 0.07180
Price is holding above the recent 0.07200 low with short-term recovery candles forming. A move above 0.07964 would strengthen the current recovery structure.
PARTI has bounced from the 0.02166 low and is printing higher short-term candles. Holding above 0.02270 keeps the recovery setup active, while a clean break above 0.02410 could bring stronger momentum.
COW is consolidating near 0.1245 after rejecting 0.1943, with 0.1200–0.1240 acting as the immediate reaction zone. A reclaim of 0.1360 would improve momentum, while losing 0.1140 invalidates the setup.