Pai

Gold and silver are soaring
BTC stays put

Gold jumps 2.3% in a day, silver 3.5%
DXY falls below 100
Risk-off funds are running

BTC has hovered around $64,000 for a week
No one listens to crypto’s story
The bill is tabled, but Warren is still coming after it

Nothing today
Moving is the same as handing it over

Semiconductors are going crazy
SMH 4.2% AVGO 4.3%

But consumer (XLY) is down
The whole market is red, and only it’s green

NVDA is up just 1.6%
The semiconductor leaders aren’t leading anymore
SPY touched 764, a new all-time high—consumption isn’t following

I don’t dare chase this new high

64K is like a barrier
BTC hit three all-out shots and rebounded

Everyone online is saying this wave can’t get through

But if you look closely at where it rebounds each time:
Saturday it tagged 62.2, Monday it tagged 62.3, today it tagged 63.3
The floor is climbing upward

I don’t bet on direction
But when a price level has been hit countless times—when everyone thinks it’s definitely not getting through—
that’s often when it’s almost through

Analysts have united.
FNG 25 Bernstein is shouting for even lower.
Japan and the US team up to intervene—yen carry is back again.
Everyone is pointing at 63K, saying it can’t hold.

But it’s been three days.
BTC hasn’t moved an inch.

Last time the consensus was this unified,
BTC rallied from 25K to 73K.

This time it may not be the same,
but one-sided consensus has never been right.

On Monday, the whole market rallyed: the Dow led the way while semiconductors were sold off; NVDA was the lone bright spot
On Monday, the market picture was off
The whole market was up, and the Dow surged 1.3%
But semiconductors were actually hit—SOXX fell 2.0%
Only NVDA stayed green to hold things up

---

Money is moving out of semiconductors
The Dow is leading in the rotation toward value
It had already weakened last week, and today it accelerated
If NVDA can’t hold up either
Then this sector will likely have to keep searching for a bottom
Annoying

Stayed in cash and watched for a weekend

Last Thursday BTC tapped 65,400
On Friday, a red candle gave it all back
Over the weekend it bounced back to 63,800, thinking it was safe
Today it directly made a new low at 62,300
It can’t rise
It’s basically bleeding downward

The long/short ratio is 2.18, and about 70% are still going long
Price is falling but positions haven’t been reduced
That’s the most dangerous part

The moment last Thursday it touched 65K
was probably when the short-term top was formed
Keep watching from the sidelines; don’t jump in

Didn’t check the market for two days on the weekend — the moment I opened the US stocks on Friday, tech went berserk

SPY up 2.4%, XLK up 5.3% — defensive sectors all down
BTC slid from 65.4K to 62.8K and closed
ETFs saw net outflows of 265M on Thursday and Friday

US stocks rallied, but crypto didn’t follow at all
Let’s see if this week we can get back to 64K

If we can’t, the space below is bigger than the space above

NVDA is up nearly 3% this week, while SOXX is basically unchanged

Same sector: the leader flies and the followers lie down
Last time this kind of divergence happened was in April—after that, the market corrected for two weeks

SPY closed at 747, just one step away from the 760 high
VIX smashed through 16—panic is gone
Trading volume is lower week over week; the rally is on reduced volume

Next week, we’ll see whether SOXX can keep up
Semiconductors are the engine—if it doesn’t move, I don’t dare to go heavy
On Monday’s open we’ll decide again; don’t chase an explosive rally

The cold wallet was stolen for $70 million—yet the BTC didn’t even move.
Coldcard’s vulnerability: without touching the device, transaction signatures leak the private key.
CZ comes out and calls for diversifying wallets.
The design assumptions behind 7 years of hardware wallets are being turned upside down today.

But the market has zero reaction.
Last Monday, BTC was dumped from 65,400 to 63,700, and it moved sideways for a week.
Today it’s still at 63,050.
The daily MACD dead cross is taking shape; all four timeframes are in bearish direction.
Tether made $1.5 billion in Q2—money is still there; people just left.

SPY 747, QQQ 688—the stock market is rising.
BTC doesn’t care, as if it has nothing to do with any of this.

In July, it could have closed at 65K, but the entire last week got given back.
August opened the door: dead cross plus fear plus the cold-wallet vulnerability—all hit at once.
At the 63,000 level, since the bull market began, it’s touched it four times and failed to hold.

An entire 300 billion yuan (RMB) worth of Apple was gone in a day

MSFT rose 1.2%
The overall market only fell 0.3

And yet AAPL alone is still doomed

Positions held as of Friday
If you didn’t hold AAPL, you can sleep tonight

I’ve never seen this screen before
US stock Nasdaq QQQ +3.3% BTC -1.7%
Over the past three years, they moved in the same direction—today they’ve gone their separate ways

Strategy down 8.2 billion Coinbase miss
The institutions talked about the story for three years, but they couldn’t keep it going

BTC has a death cross holding down at 63K
Even when US stocks rally, it can’t lift

Things that don’t follow up
Don’t expect it to withstand a sell-off

US stocks partied hard yesterday: QQQ +3.3%, while the VIX dropped 17%
BTC saw swings of a few dozen dollars

Strategy lost 8.2 billion — Coinbase -5% after-hours
Big money is coming back, but the first stop isn’t crypto

This is what I’m worried about
Risk appetite is back, and money is circling around BTC

If there’s no news by the weekend,
we’ll be stuck here next week

MSFT +14% META -9% on the same day

SOXX +7.8% Semiconductors don’t care whether ad budgets live or die
Chips still ship—AI infrastructure money didn’t stop

Earlier you’d buy AI by blindly sweeping the sector; now you start picking specific names

NVDA +3%, but SMH is up 6.5%—it’s not being pulled by it
The market is pricing them separately

US stocks were beaten up yesterday
Dow fell 2.2%, QQQ fell 2%
I checked BTC—still at 64.5K

A few months ago, when US stocks were -1%, BTC first dropped 3%
Today, US stocks are -2% and BTC is unmoving

About this “decoupling” thing—
I’m kind of starting to believe it

Dow index drops 2% as VIX spikes to 20
U.S. stocks are in a panic
BTC 64K just won’t move

Every time the U.S. stock market crashes, BTC follows
But this time it isn’t
Everything that should be sold has already been sold

The FNG is still at 28 in the fear zone
Fear not dropping is the bottom

Keep watching — it’s not moving

📊 Wednesday Capital Flows | SMH -5.1%

Semiconductors are acting weird today

SMH got hit for 5%
It’s not common for the semiconductor ETF to drop this much in a single day

Healthcare is up, energy is up
Apple is also rising against the trend—up nearly 2%, almost making a new high

VIX jumped 5%, but gold is falling too
Money is leaving semiconductors and going into defense—it's not going into safe-haven assets

This isn’t a breakdown; it’s rebalancing
That big red candle looks a bit unsettling

Raised a hand until 2 a.m.

Citadel is betting on more rate hikes.
No one can move things.

One side is about to get slapped in the face.

BTC 64.5K
Not even budging.
No one wants to act before the decision.

South Korea’s chip stocks crashed today—
the biggest one-day drop in history.
The crypto market is stone still.

Money ran to COTI and it jumped 19%.
Garbage coins pump, but the overall market can’t improve.

Wait until 2 a.m.

Ondo has been walking this path of bringing RWA on-chain for two years.

Now they say, let’s call it quits—private high-speed trading networks are more reliable.

This isn’t just a small team turning around.
Ondo is the biggest banner in the RWA narrative.
BlackRock’s BUIDL followed their path.

They discovered one thing:
Real institutional trading doesn’t care about decentralization.
They want speed, privacy, and certainty.

Blockchain can’t deliver all three.

What’s interesting is that BlackRock and Fidelity just jointly threw their support behind the Clarity Act.
On one side, legislation is pushing for compliance.
On the other, the leading players say an on-chain setup isn’t the optimal solution.

RWA money will come.
But the way it comes will be completely different from what people imagined in 2023.

Everyone is shouting that sectors are rotating

Nasdaq is down, Dow is up
NVDA is getting pushed down
The scene really does look like rotation

But after money leaves tech
Where did it go

Not into banks
Not into energy
It’s cash

VIX is back to 19
The market is tightening up, not switching

It’s just selling a bit after two years of gains
Not much to do with macro narratives

Stay in cash
There’s nothing I want to buy

The coffee wasn't finished; BTC got smashed to 63059 and bounced back to 63428

Yesterday I said de-coupling
I didn’t say it wrong—it happened one day late
NASDAQ dumped BTC on Friday; BTC only followed on Monday

ETH followed too

FNG 29
Last year when BTC fell by this much, FNG was 15–20
Now it’s only at 29

It hit 63K twice
Once in May; now once again
Neither time broke through

A lot of people have left; the price level hasn't moved