Kripto Raporu

Günün Kripto Raporu | 22 Ağustus Bitcoin, birkaç gün içinde yaklaşık %25 yükseldikten sonra 77K bölgesinde konsolide oluyor. 👇 Öne çıkan başlıklar: ▪️ ABD Hazinesi uzun vadeli tahvil geri alımlarını işlem başına $2 milyardan $4 milyara çıkardı. Uzun vadeli faizlerdeki gerileme $BTC rallisinin katalizörlerinden biri oldu. ▪️ ABD spot Bitcoin ve Ethereum ETF'leri haftayı güçlü net girişlerle tamamladı. BTC ETF'lerinde hafta boyunca kurumsal talep belirgin şekilde hızlandı. ▪️ Son rallide $4 milyarın üzerinde kripto short pozisyonu tasfiye edildi. Short squeeze fiyat hareketini önemli ölçüde hızlandırdı. ▪️ AI ajanlarının mikro ödemelerinde stablecoin kullanımı büyüyor. Coinbase x402 ağı 165 milyondan fazla ödeme işlemiş durumda. ▪️ Zcash - $ZEC , Grayscale'in spot ETF dönüşüm sürecindeki gelişmeler ve yoğun vadeli işlem aktivitesiyle $800 seviyesinin üzerine çıktı. ETF henüz SEC tarafından onaylanmış değil.

Crypto Daily Report | August 21. For the second day in a row, strong inflows occurred into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Total daily inflows reached approximately $800 million. 👇 Featured Highlights: • The U.S. Dollar Index fell by about 1% on the week, approaching the lowest levels in three months. • While U.S. index futures remained positive, major indices stayed in negative territory on a weekly basis. • There is no net data confirming a direct shift of capital from stocks to crypto. In the divergence on the crypto side, ETF demand and a weakening dollar stand out. • $XRP outperformed $BTC and $ETH in weekly performance. • The Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to remain in the “Greed” zone.

Daily Crypto Report | August 20 In the FOMC meeting minutes, most members supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Three members wanted a 25 basis point increase. 👇 Key highlights: • The Fed indicated that renewed tightening might be necessary if inflation remains high. Rate cut expectations were not supported. • The U.S. Treasury said it could increase long-term Treasury bond buybacks beyond the previously announced level. • As Treasury yields and the dollar declined, demand strengthened for gold and crypto assets. • There were inflows of $517 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs and $189 million into Ethereum ETFs. • The rise in Bitcoin was supported not only by spot ETF demand, but also by the closing of leveraged short positions. • The Fear & Greed Index moved into the “Greed” zone. • Political statements suggesting the U.S. could directly buy $BTC boosted expectations. No confirmed purchase has been found yet.

Crypto Daily Report | August 19 FOMC minutes will be released at 21:00 Turkey time. The market will focus on inflation and interest rate hike messages. 👇 Key highlights: • The US Treasury supported market liquidity by increasing long-term bond buybacks. • Spot crypto ETF flows remained positive on Tuesday as well. Institutional demand carried over to the second day. • During Bitcoin’s rise, approximately $1.4 billion worth of $BTC short positions were liquidated. • While risk appetite in the stock markets supported crypto, the South Korea KOSPI index fell 5.8%. • Airdrop activities in AI projects picked up again. This move suggests speculative capital is shifting toward AI-themed altcoins, but it has not yet confirmed a lasting altcoin season.

Crypto Daily Report | 18 August The markets focused on the FOMC minutes to be released on Wednesday. 👇 Key headlines: • Spot crypto ETFs started the week with $131.1 million in net inflows. • Global bond yields rose. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than 19 years. • Rising Treasury yields limit liquidity allocated to risk assets while increasing Bitcoin’s opportunity cost. • The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982. • Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed significantly. Not extending the 60-day period between the U.S. and Iran increased the risk premium in energy markets. • BlackRock viewed the recent $BTC pullback as a position-driven move. There is no notable change in the firm’s long-term investment approach.

Crypto Daily Report of the Day | August 14 Main theme in the markets today: Despite growth weakening, inflation and interest-rate risk never fully disappeared. 👇 Highlights: • U.S. producer prices were unchanged month-over-month in July. However, the core gauge, excluding food, energy, and trade, rose by 0.4%. • U.S. retail sales fell by 0.6%, signaling cooling on the consumer side. • Consumer sentiment in Michigan fell short of expectations, coming in at 51.0. • Rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields increased pressure on risk assets. • Fed official Beth Hammack continues to favor a tighter monetary policy. Hammack had voted in favor of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the July meeting. • Strategy objected to the MSCI index approach for companies holding digital assets. A possible exclusion from the index could affect passive fund demand for MSTR. • Crypto ETF flows turning negative suggests that institutional demand has weakened. $BTC

Daily Crypto Report | 12 August Bitcoin rose back to the $64k area after the selloffs at the start of the week. 👇 Featured headlines: • Japanese investment company Metaplanet transferred 3,881 BTC among its own wallets. There is no verified information indicating the transaction was carried out for the purpose of selling. • Today’s focus for markets is the US consumer inflation data to be released. • For the headline CPI: monthly 0.1%, annual 3.4% are expected; for the core CPI: monthly 0.2% and annual 2.5% are expected to rise. • Core inflation above expectations could support the Fed’s tight monetary policy. Softer data could ease risk assets via the dollar and bond yields. • On Monday, $163.1 million left spot crypto ETFs, suggesting that institutional demand weakened at the beginning of the week. $BTC

Crypto Daily Report | 11 August Markets are de-risking ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI data release. 👇 Key highlights: • Spot crypto ETFs began the week with a total net outflow of $163.1 million. • Selling pressure in Bitcoin carried over into the second day after Strategy’s $BTC sale. • Signs that institutional investment interest is shifting from Bitcoin to AI companies are strengthening. • The claim “90 whale wallets are accumulating” is being followed. However, the number of wallets alone does not indicate the number of investors or permanent accumulation. • If inflation exceeds expectations, it could support the Fed’s tight stance. Lower data could provide short-term relief to crypto markets.

📅 Weekly Economic Calendar (10 - 16 August) Save it and let’s follow the week together. The main agenda in the crypto market will be US inflation data.👇 • Tuesday, 11 August: RBA interest rate decision and US existing home sales The expectation is that the RBA will keep its rate unchanged at 4.35%. The direct impact on crypto is expected to be limited; the message the statement provides regarding the global interest-rate outlook will be what to watch. • Wednesday, 12 August: US CPI 💥 The monthly headline inflation is expected to be 0.1%, and core inflation 0.2%. The expected annual CPI is 3.4%. Data above expectations could weigh on crypto by supporting interest-rate increases, the dollar, and bond yields. Cooler-than-expected data could bring relief to risk assets. • Thursday, 13 August: US PPI Producer prices are expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month. PPI reflects companies’ cost pressure and the inflation that could feed through to consumer prices in the future. If CPI comes in low but PPI is high, the market’s first positive reaction may be limited. • Friday, 14 August: US retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment Strong consumption could indicate that the economy remains resilient, but it may also support the Fed’s tight stance. Very weak data, on the other hand, could reduce pressure on rates while creating growth concerns. The most important data of the week: US CPI. ETF inflows support institutional demand, but the direction of $BTC will depend on how inflation data changes interest-rate expectations. The base scenario is that volatility increases mid-week.

Crypto Daily Report | August 8 ETF demand and a technical rebound are positive. Due to low liquidity over the weekend, volume and daily closes will be monitored to confirm the moves. 👇 Key highlights: • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the five trading days of the week in the green. • Weekly $BTC ETF inflows reached approximately $865.3 million. Renewed consistency is being seen in institutional demand. • Claims of a whale accumulation of around 20,000 BTC support market optimism. However, address clusters alone do not indicate the actual number of real investors, so the data should be read with caution. • Bitwise believes that in the long run, trillions of dollars of capital could flow into Bitcoin from institutional channels. This is an expectation of structural adoption rather than a near-term price target. • Bank of America warned that investor optimism in risky assets has reached excessive levels.

Daily Crypto Report | August 7 Weak employment data and positive ETF inflows are supporting risk appetite. Developments on oil and inflation will be decisive in whether the uptrend can persist. 👇 Key highlights: • The U.S. economy lost 23 thousand jobs in July, against expectations of an increase of over 80 thousand. • Weak employment data supported Bitcoin by reducing the likelihood of the Fed raising rates. • The unemployment rate falling to 4.1% showed that the labor market picture has not fully deteriorated. • Bitcoin rose above $65k and retested the 50-day EMA. A daily close above this average could strengthen the technical outlook. • Crypto ETFs also finished Thursday in positive territory. Continued institutional demand was one of the factors supporting the rally. • The U.S. Senate will not vote on the CLARITY Act before the summer recess. The bill’s next evaluation window was pushed to September. • After the Coldcard attack, 210 thousand $BTC was moved from old wallets. This move does not directly mean selling; the amount flowing into exchanges should also be monitored. • Oil prices rising again means energy inflation and Fed expectations remain the main fundamental risk for crypto. Have a great weekend! ❤️

Daily Crypto Report | August 6 $BTC trades around the 65k threshold while maintaining a short-term bullish structure. 👇 Highlights: • On Wednesday, a total of $296.2 million flowed into crypto ETFs. The positive flows over the first three trading days of the week pointed to a recovery in institutional demand. • In the U.S., private payrolls (ADP) came in below expectations at 44k. A cooling labor market could ease pressure for the Fed to raise rates. • The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1, showing that economic growth is continuing. The price index rising to 70.3 suggests that inflation risks remain. • U.S. initial jobless claims stayed near a low level at 199k. The data indicates that the labor market is still resilient. • An increase in oil inventories limited concerns about energy-driven inflation. • Fed officials said that if inflation remains high, rate hikes are still on the table. • Russia advanced its legal framework governing crypto assets. The regulation is seen as positive for long-term institutionalization, while the near-term price impact is considered limited.

Daily Crypto Report | August 5 Bitcoin, after a recovery brought by the new week, lost momentum again in the short-term resistance zone. 👇 Key headlines: • Spot crypto ETFs recorded a net inflow of $263.87 million on August 4. Thus, institutional demand stayed positive for two days in a row. • On Polymarket, the chance that the Fed’s September meeting will keep rates unchanged is being priced at 52%, with a 25-basis-point hike priced at 47%. The market is still split between the two scenarios. • A controlled decline in the JOLTS data suggested the labor market is cooling, but it did not completely eliminate the possibility of a rate increase. • Today, ADP employment, services PMI data, and oil inventories are being watched. Strong services activity and high price pressure could support the Fed’s tight monetary policy. • For $BTC, while short-term momentum is weakening, ETF inflows limit the downside risk. Overall outlook: Institutional demand is positive, macro view is mixed. The market continues to search for direction.

Daily Crypto Report | August 4 Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range around $64,000. 👇 Key highlights: • Monday spot crypto ETFs positive: approximately +$152.4 million • U.S. stock markets closed strong on Monday; Dow hit a record high • Oil prices fell on hopes for a deal for the Strait of Hormuz • Bessent said a deal for the Strait of Hormuz could come between the U.S. and Iran in the near term • On the $BTC side, yen carry trade risk is being monitored again • The JOLTS data will be released today at 17:00 TRT Main read for crypto: - ETF inflows are positive for near-term demand. - Falling oil reduces inflation worries and supports risk assets. - However, BTC has not yet shown a strong trend break. The market is balancing between geopolitical easing and Fed expectations. Today’s critical data will be JOLTS. Strong labor market data could support the Fed’s tight stance. Weak but controlled data could provide near-term relief for BTC.

Today's Crypto Report | August 3. Bitcoin started the new week weakly. 👇 • After selling pressure from the $BTC 65K area, it is trading in the 63K range. • According to CoinDesk, the decline is explained less by panic selling and more by low volume and weak buyer participation. • Strategy sold 1,638 BTC last week. • The sale generated approximately $104.7 million in proceeds. • The company also sold shares worth $290.6 million and repurchased $81.2 million worth of STRC. • Strategy’s BTC holdings fell to 842.138 BTC. • Meanwhile, Bitmine continued buying $ETH and acquired an additional 10,399 ETH last week. • The Crypto Clarity Act was not on the Senate agenda on Monday. • Brent crude dropped sharply as attacks between the US and Iran reportedly halted. • US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in above expectations. Strong data could support the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Weekly Economic Calendar & Crypto Impact (3–9 August) 📅 Don’t forget to save it—let’s follow this week together again. The main crypto topic this week will be US growth and employment data. 👇 Monday • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI • US ISM Manufacturing PMI Why is it important? Strong manufacturing data shows the economy is still resilient. It could support the Fed’s tight stance and put pressure on BTC. Tuesday • US JOLTS Job Openings Why is it important? It indicates the strength of the labor market. If the number of job openings comes in high, concerns about wage/inflation pressure may increase. Wednesday • ADP Private Sector Employment • US Services PMI • ISM Services PMI • US Crude Oil Inventories Why is it important? The services sector is a large part of the US economy. Strong data could increase pressure on the Fed. Oil inventories, meanwhile, will be more closely watched this week due to the Hormuz tensions. Thursday • US Initial Jobless Claims Why is it important? If claims come in low, it creates a strong labor market perception and may support expectations of rate hikes. If they come in high, it could provide short-term relief for BTC. Friday • US Nonfarm Payrolls • US Average Hourly Earnings • US Unemployment Rate • Canada Employment Data • Canada Ivey PMI Friday is the most important day of the week. The main scenario for crypto: Strong employment + strong wage growth: expectations for Fed rate hikes strengthen. Negative for BTC. Weak employment + subdued wage growth: Treasury yields could ease. Short-term positive for BTC. Very weak data: could create recession fears. In this case, even if the first reaction is positive, risk appetite may deteriorate. This week, for $BTC, it won’t be just the chart—macro data will also determine the direction!

Crypto Daily Report | 1 August Bitcoin closed the month of July positively, but it did not signal a strong trend reversal. 👇 • Main theme throughout the month: ETF flows, Fed pressure, oil/geopolitical risks, and weak institutional demand. • $BTC saw a sharp pullback over the weekend. • Friday ETF flows closed negative. • According to CoinDesk, when a wallet linked to Coldcard was accessed, losses rose to 1,082 BTC, about $70 million. • Investigations suggest it occurred via weak seed generation, without direct access to the attacking device. • The remark by Binance founder CZ that “we may be in a bear market, but there’s a lot of money looking for investments” summarizes the market’s uncertainty.

Crypto Daily Report | July 31 Bitcoin fell back to the week’s lowest levels. Three main themes stood out in the decline: 1- A major wallet vulnerability stemming from Coldcard 2- A renewed rise in US Treasury yields 3- Ongoing inflation pressure following the Fed • According to CoinDesk, about $594 BTC was drained in the short term due to a seed-generation flaw in older Coldcard wallets. • This created a loss of confidence more around crypto security and self-custody than from direct market selling. • The US imposed sanctions on the Hormuz insurance structure, which is said to be linked to Iran and to accept Bitcoin payments. • The Bank of Japan kept the rate at 1%. The yen carry trade has not been disrupted for now. • Core PCE remains above the Fed’s 2% target, at 3.3% year-over-year. • The 64.2K level was lost on the BTC side. The market is looking for support again.

Crypto Report | July 30 Bitcoin is holding around $64k after the Fed decision. 👇 Key highlights: • Fed kept the interest rate fixed in the 3.50%-3.75% band. • The decision was 9-3; 3 members wanted a rate hike. • Warsh said the inflation target of 2% will not be compromised. • The market interpreted the decision as a “hawkish hold.” • The US economy grew 1.5% in Q2, below expectations. • Microsoft’s strong AI performance supported tech stocks. • $BTC is struggling to break above the 50 EMA resistance despite a rebound on the equities side. • In the July 29 ETF data, the BTC side came positive, while the $ETH side came negative. • Total ETF flow was only +$2 million.

Bitcoin holds above 64K before the Fed decision. 👇 Key headlines: • $BTC During Asian hours, it rose above $64,000. • The market today is focused on the Fed decision. • The Fed decision is expected on Wednesday, July 29 at 21:00. • Expectations are for the interest rate to remain unchanged. • However, the possibility of a surprise rate hike is being priced in by the market. • Oil prices rose after Iran’s attempted strike on a US base. • The oil increase could pressure crypto through inflation and Fed expectations. • Yesterday’s ETF data was negative; this signaled risk reduction before the decision. • BitMEX and BitMart closing/closures brought consolidation on the exchange side and raised concerns about trust and risk.