BeInCrypto Global

One week could decide what your stocks, your Bitcoin (BTC), and your dollars are worth by Christmas. From Wednesday to Friday, the Federal Reserve meets, inflation data lands, and $11 billion in Bitcoin bets expire.
A month ago, traders thought a rate hike this week was likely. Today, they put the odds below one in 10. Yet almost nobody on Wall Street thinks the Fed is done.
Why Does a Likely Fed Pause Still Matter for December?
In September, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. The Fed’s September hike put its key rate between 3.75% and 4.00%.
That number touches almost everything. It shapes what people pay on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.
It also decides where big money goes. When safe savings pay more, fewer investors want to gamble on tech stocks or crypto.
On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to sit still. CME FedWatch puts the chance of no change at 90.6%. A month ago, a hike was the favorite at 64.2%.
CME FedWatch odds for the October 28 Fed meeting, 90.6% hold and 9.4% hike, Source: CME Group
December is a different story. FedWatch gives a December hike 68% odds, according to CME FedWatch Tool. In a Reuters poll, all 100 economists surveyed expect one.
So why wait? Yardeni Research points to the calendar, not the data.
“We believe the committee should hike on Wednesday but won’t because the midterm elections are so close,” the researchers indicated.
Americans vote in the midterms on November 3. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces reporters at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Can Thursday’s Inflation Data Decide Whether Markets Rally or Retreat?
Thursday morning brings the number the Fed trusts most. The PCE price index tracks how fast prices rise for what Americans buy.
Economists expect prices to be 3.7% higher than a year ago, per MarketWatch. The Fed’s goal is 2%. It is also moving the wrong way, up from 3.4% in August.
Core PCE much cooler than expected, as previewed:PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3%PCE 3.4% YoY, Exp. 3.7%PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%, PCE Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 3.3% https://t.co/vZws3Ik41Q
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026
The economy is not cooling to help. Growth for the July to September quarter is expected at 3.2%, up from 2.2% the quarter before.
Bond markets are already flashing warnings. The 10-year Treasury yield, which steers mortgage rates, closed near 5% on Friday, per Mortgage News Daily. It hit 5.33% on October 14.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield. Source: TradingView
A hotter number would strengthen the case for a December hike. A cooler one would weaken it.
History shows the stakes. In May and June, Bitcoin slid from about $82,000 to the low $60,000s as rate-cut hopes faded, BeInCrypto reported.
Here is the twist. When the Fed finally hiked in September, Bitcoin went up, from about $75,350 to above $76,100 within minutes.
Are Europe and Japan Adding to the Pressure?
Europe’s central bank meets Thursday. In a Reuters poll cited by Admiral Markets, 70 of 73 economists expect it to hold at 2.50%. Most expect a hike in December.
Reuters Poll: All 100 Economists Expect Fed Rate Hike in DecemberA Reuters poll found that 94 of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% at its October m… https://t.co/uaMMeBzh67
— BigBreakingWire (@BigBreakingWire) October 20, 2026
Japan’s central bank decides Friday. Its 1.25% rate is already the highest since 1995.
That matters far beyond Tokyo. Investors have long borrowed cheap yen to buy assets elsewhere, including crypto. As BeInCrypto reported, rising Japanese rate expectations could force those trades to unwind.
How Could Friday’s $11 Billion Options Expiry Move Bitcoin?
Bitcoin traded at $80,472 on Sunday, per BeInCrypto data. That is well short of its early October peak above $86,000.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Then comes Friday. At 4 a.m. ET, Bitcoin options worth $10.97 billion expire on Deribit. Options are contracts that let traders buy or sell at a fixed price by a set date.
It is the biggest expiry on Deribit’s calendar, covering 35% of all open Bitcoin contracts there.
Bets on higher prices (calls) outnumber bets on lower ones (puts) almost two to one.
Bitcoin EXpiring Options. Source: Deribit
The single biggest bet, about 19,950 BTC, targets $95,000. The Bitcoin price today would need to climb about 18% in five days to get there.
Deribit’s data tells a different story. At $78,000, the largest share of these contracts would expire worthless.
By Friday, investors will know far more about December. The Fed meets again December 8 to 9, Europe on December 17, and Japan on December 18.
Markets price a hike at all three above 70%. This week decides whether those bets grow or start to crack.

Three crypto companies release third-quarter earnings reports this week. Analysts expect a profit at Robinhood and a loss at Coinbase. Strategy has already disclosed a $20.91 billion gain on its Bitcoin (BTC).
Share moves and results have not lined up for these companies lately. Coinbase shares rose after two of its three profit misses this year, while Robinhood fell after beating estimates in July.
Robinhood’s Beats Have Not Lifted Its Stock
Robinhood opens the week on Tuesday, October 27, reporting after the market closes.
Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56, against $0.61 a year earlier, according to ChartRow.
Revenue consensus stands at $1.41 billion, up 16% from a year earlier, according to Hudson Labs.
The stock fell 3.6% after its July report, even though EPS of $0.62 beat the $0.44 estimate.
This is also the first quarter for Robinhood Chain, the company’s blockchain for tokenized assets. The network launched on July 1.
ARK Invest estimated that Robinhood Chain generated more revenue than Ethereum over the quarter, at about $51 million against roughly $41 million.
The stock’s reaction to past reports offers some context ahead of Tuesday. Robinhood shares fell between 2.9% and 13.2% after each of its last six reports, even though five of them beat estimates.
Shares also fell 5.25% on Thursday and 1.56% on Friday heading into the report. Overall, in 2026, shares are down nearly 16%.
Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance Coinbase Is Expected to Lose Money for a Third Straight Quarter
Two days later, Coinbase reports after the close on Thursday, October 29. Unlike Robinhood, it heads into the release with a loss forecast.
Analysts expect a loss of $0.18 per share, against a $1.44 profit a year earlier, according to ChartRow.
Revenue consensus is $1.20 billion, down from $1.87 billion a year earlier, according to MarketBeat.
The stock fell 10.6% after its July report, when it lost $0.39 per share against a $0.14 profit estimate.
That revenue estimate implies a drop of about 36% from the third quarter of 2025.
Coinbase posted adjusted losses in the first two quarters of 2026, so a loss now would make three in a row. It has also fallen short of analysts’ profit estimates in each of its last three reports. Second-quarter revenue missed as well, falling 18.5% from a year earlier to $1.22 billion. Analysts had expected $1.29 billion.
Those misses did not always weigh on the stock. Coinbase shares gained 16.5% after its February miss and 4.2% after its May miss.
Shares closed at $164.45 on Friday, leaving the stock down about 27% in 2026.
Coinbase (COIN) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance Strategy Has Already Shown Its Biggest Number
Strategy reports the same evening as Coinbase and hosts a webinar at 5 p.m. Eastern Time (ET). Most of its headline result is already public.
Analysts expect EPS of $21.50, against $8.42 a year earlier, according to ChartRow. Only three analysts contribute to that estimate.
The stock fell 4.6% after its July report, which showed a loss of $24.45 per share against a $52.04 estimate.
In an October 5 filing, Strategy estimated a $20.91 billion gain on its Bitcoin for the quarter. It held 847,666 BTC at the end of September, bought at an average of about $75,437 per coin.
Strategy marks its Bitcoin to market each quarter, so its earnings rise and fall with the coin’s price. With the main gain already disclosed, the call may tell investors more than the EPS figure.
Two recent developments could come up. On October 19, Strategy’s board raised its preferred stock buyback authorization from $2 billion to $3 billion.
Separately, MSCI approved rules on October 15 targeting companies that behave more like investment vehicles than operating businesses. Under those rules, Strategy could lose index spots.
Shares closed at $146.01 on Friday, down 3.9% in 2026, the smallest decline of the three.
Strategy (MSTR) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance
Strategy’s gain came from Bitcoin’s rise during the quarter. Over the same period, analysts expect Coinbase’s revenue to slip below its second-quarter level.
That gap puts the focus on how much each company earned from the move, not on the move itself.
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Bitcoin is struggling around $80,000 as ETF demand swings and rising oil prices complicate the outlook for interest rates. Yet BloFin CEO Matt Hu believes the cryptocurrency’s future crashes could become less severe.
Speaking to BeInCrypto at TOKEN2049 in Singapore earlier this month, Hu explained how traditional investors are changing Bitcoin, what could drive its next rally, and why altcoins may be left behind.
The latest market turmoil is putting those arguments to the test.
Are Bitcoin’s Boom-and-Bust Cycles Becoming Less Severe?
“The biggest change is Bitcoin’s ownership base.”
According to Hu, ETFs and corporate treasuries have brought in investors with longer investment horizons, potentially reducing panic selling during downturns.
“Despite headlines about daily ETF inflows and outflows, the total amount of Bitcoin held by these funds, measured in BTC, remained broadly stable through the bear market,” the BloFin CEO explained.
1/2👀 This week in Whale's Insight:🐋 BTC holds $80K as whales flip to buyingg: 1K to 10K BTC holders’ 60d net flow swung from −62.6K to +5.23K BTC📉 Fresh demand still missing: BTC ETFs saw $635M in outflows on Oct 22, the largest since Jun 25🎯 The two largest short… pic.twitter.com/QaaT2od5Qr
— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) October 23, 2026
BloFin’s Research estimated that US spot ETFs held roughly 1.3 million BTC, broadly unchanged since January.
The research also found that Bitcoin’s latest bear-market decline reached 53%, compared with crashes of approximately 77%–85% in previous cycles. However, that comparison assumes June remains the market bottom.
Bitcoin’s Historical Bear-Market Declines
The theory now faces a difficult test.
Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 over the weekend. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22, following three sessions that attracted more than $1 billion.
Meanwhile, Glassnode estimates that ETF investors and Bitcoin treasury companies have average acquisition costs near $81,500 and $80,200, respectively.
Sustained weakness below those levels would put both groups at a loss on average, potentially testing their willingness to hold.
Hu identified specific conditions that would undermine BloFin’s outlook.
“A sustained decline in ETF Bitcoin holdings, widespread forced selling by Bitcoin treasury companies, and a shrinking long-term holder base, as measured by on-chain metrics, would invalidate our current view.”
For investors, this distinction matters. Daily ETF outflows can move prices, but a sustained reduction in Bitcoin holdings would offer stronger evidence that long-term capital is leaving.
Glassnode identifies 85,000–87,500 as an important resistance area.Analysts warn that losing the 80,000–82,000 support zone could expose Bitcoin to a deeper decline toward 73,000–75,000.
The Bitcoin ETF investor base proved resilient through the downturn. Headlines about large daily inflows and outflows can obscure the broader picture: US spot Bitcoin ETFs held around 1.3 million BTC on October 20, broadly unchanged from the end of January. Even as Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/2mcrGu8dDI
— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) October 21, 2026
What Could Drive Bitcoin’s Next Sustained Rally?
Government debt could eventually become a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin, according to Hu. However, current financial conditions are working against that possibility.
“Higher bond yields currently make bonds attractive and draw capital away from Bitcoin.”
The US 10-year Treasury yield ended October 23 near 5%, while Brent crude climbed above $116 a barrel.
Higher energy costs threaten to keep inflation elevated, limiting the Federal Reserve’s room to ease monetary policy.
Even inflation-protected 10-year US government bonds were yielding around 2.6%. That makes Bitcoin, which generates no income, less attractive to investors seeking predictable returns.
However, Hu believes rising government debt could eventually change that relationship.
“However, as government borrowing costs continue to climb, fiscal sustainability may eventually take priority in policy decisions, leading to financial repression.”
In simple terms, governments facing growing debt burdens could pressure central banks to keep borrowing costs artificially low.
That might involve maintaining interest rates below inflation or purchasing government bonds to suppress yields.
“As financial repression increases, bondholders may still receive high nominal yield, but inflation erodes their real return,” Hu explained.
Bitcoin could benefit if investors increasingly seek assets with limited supply to preserve purchasing power.
Yet that remains a longer-term scenario.
For now, traders face the Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision. Falling inflation-adjusted bond yields and stronger institutional buying would provide more immediate evidence of improving conditions.
Coinbase estimates that ETFs have attracted approximately $6.4 billion in net Bitcoin investment since August, compared with $1.5 billion purchased by corporate treasuries.
Whether those inflows continue could determine how sustainable the next recovery becomes.
1/3 | Crypto & Cross-Market Brief — October 2026The market rally is facing a macro stress test.Renewed Fed tightening expectations, rising Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on risk appetite.But beneath the correction, market fundamentals tell a more… pic.twitter.com/eLPr0yOAw4
— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) October 16, 2026
Will the Next Bitcoin Rally Lift Altcoins?
Hu is less convinced that the traditional altcoin season will return.
“The altcoin market faces a structural change.”
In earlier cycles, Bitcoin rallies often encouraged investors to move into smaller, riskier cryptocurrencies.
Now, tokenized stocks and other real-world assets offer alternatives that could compete for the same speculative capital.
“Companies with strong earnings and cash flow may attract capital that previously flowed into low-quality altcoins,” Hu said.
The current market already shows how uneven crypto investment has become.
CoinGecko’s third-quarter report showed spot trading volumes falling 14.2%, while perpetual futures open interest increased 40.6%.
The figures suggest leverage has been growing faster than underlying trading activity.
Crypto Spot Trading vs. Leverage Growth
Hu believes future investment opportunities will increasingly favor tokens supported by genuine economic activity and mechanisms that return value to holders.
“The traditional altseason pattern may fail if liquidity remains fragmented and tokenized assets offer investors better choice.”
For Bitcoin, the immediate question is whether institutional holders can withstand another selloff.
For the wider crypto market, even a convincing Bitcoin recovery may no longer guarantee the broad rallies investors remember from previous cycles.

An Argentine federal judge has cleared President Javier Milei in the LIBRA case. The ruling found no criminally relevant deception in the meme coin’s promotion and collapse.
However, critics call the decision a cover-up, and some former plaintiffs still seek a path to appeal.
What the Judge Decided in the LIBRA Case
Federal judge Marcelo Martínez de Giorgi dismissed the case against 11 people, including Milei and his sister Karina. The judge also dismissed the case against Hayden Davis, Mauricio Novelli, and Julian Peh.
Prosecutor Eduardo Taiano had requested the decision. As a result, none of the 11 ever faced formal questioning as a suspect.
In his 60-page ruling, the judge wrote that a promotion, a rally, and a crash do not prove fraud alone. He added that an economic loss is not automatically a crime.
He also noted that Milei posted from a personal account, without public resources. Investigators also could not link a note on Novelli’s phone describing $5 million in payments to anyone else.
Similarly, the only direct record tying Karina Milei to Davis was a July 2024 Casa Rosada entry authorization.
Was LIBRA a Scam, and What Happens Next?
Milei promoted LIBRA on X on February 14, 2025. The token’s market value briefly topped $4.5 billion, then fell about 95% within hours.
Meanwhile, on-chain analysts found that eight wallets tied to the team cashed out $107 million. Milei later deleted his post and said he had acted in good faith.
After the ruling, Milei said justice had put things in their place. He also blamed a political and media operation against his government.
However, opposition deputy Maximiliano Ferraro called the decision a judicial cover-up. His congressional commission had found in November 2025 that Milei provided essential collaboration to the project.
$LIBRA: Estamos ante una clara operación judicial planificada de encubrimiento e impunidad para Milei y todos los organizadores de la estafa. pic.twitter.com/zLusGGekWB
— maxi ferraro (@maxiferraro) October 23, 2026
Critics also questioned the July appointment of the judge’s wife to a federal court, which Milei signed by decree.
For now, the court has archived the case. Still, excluded plaintiffs have asked the Federal Cassation Court to reinstate them, which could reopen the door to an appeal.

Bitcoin ETFs lost more than half a billion in just two days last week. Meanwhile, Wall Street investors poured $41.1 million into Zcash. Are they anticipating another rally for ZEC?
Grayscale’s Zcash ETF recorded its strongest weekly inflows since mid-September, raising questions about whether investors are returning to the privacy-focused cryptocurrency ahead of a broader recovery.
Bitcoin funds still finished the week $301.2 million positive, thanks to earlier buying. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, lost $220.7 million.
Why Is Money Returning to Zcash?
Zcash’s recovery follows three difficult weeks. Its ETF lost $143 million during that period before recovering nearly 29% of those withdrawals last week.
After another $10.4 million left on Monday, the fund recorded four consecutive days of inflows. Friday alone brought $20.5 million.
Zcash ETF Weekly Flows Chart. Source: SoSoValue
The return of buyers suggests some investors are willing to bet on a recovery after Zcash’s recent correction.
Its focus on private transactions offers a different investment story, although the fund data cannot establish why buyers returned.
Can Zcash Price Sustain the Recovery?
The immediate test is $1,200. ZEC rebounded after falling to $1,118 last week, but analysts remain divided.
Some analysts see a potential bullish signal if ZEC closes above $1,223. That could lead to a crossover of its short-term moving averages around October 28, suggesting stronger upward momentum.
Whale Factor is less optimistic. The analyst sees ZEC trading in a declining price channel, identifying $597 as a major historical level.
$ZEC next thing im watching is the 1D green cross, current eta is in ~5 days and if price can close above the 1223 levelif ZEC god candles above 1414 it will force the cross but atm its a bulls wet dream. imo the battle for the 1200ish levels will be fought over the next week https://t.co/cytWw82vOp pic.twitter.com/FdWIcayMPm
— that1618guy (@that1618guy) October 23, 2026
September offers a warning. A $98.2 million inflow week was followed by three weeks of withdrawals, while ZEC retreated from its peak near $1,690.
The next ETF flow reports and the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting could help determine whether Zcash’s recovery continues.

Silver has lost more than half its value since January, and traders are increasingly preparing for further losses.
The precious metal closed Friday at $53.83, down nearly 56% from its record high of $121.74. That marks its weakest finish of 2026, as gold also slipped below $4,000.
Silver’s collapse began when January’s speculative rally reversed amid higher futures margin requirements and forced selling. The latest pressure comes from surging oil prices, which threaten more inflation and higher US interest rates.
That makes silver, which pays no interest, less attractive. Concerns about industrial demand add further pressure.
Silver Price Daily Chart, Source: TradingView Why Are Traders Betting Against Silver?
Silver’s three-month put-call skew has climbed 10 points in four weeks to minus 3, its highest reading since early July, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
It means more traders are buying protection against silver falling further. This suggests investors are increasingly worried about another price crash.
Hedge funds and commodity trading advisers have also sold $2.2 billion in silver futures in the three weeks to October 13. These are contracts traders use to bet on future prices.
The selling shows that large investors are reducing their exposure to silver as confidence in a recovery weakens.
How Much Further Could Silver Price Fall?
Technical analyst Kev_Capital_TA identifies $52–$55 as critical support, with a potential rebound toward $63–$72.
“If that support holds, all those crowded shorts become fuel for a bounce,” he wrote.
Losing $52 could expose $39–$45. Michaël van de Poppe sees $40–$45 as a possible trading entry and $22–$26 longer term.
Peter Schiff, meanwhile, considers silver attractive below $54.
When I'm looking at Silver, I don't think we'll see a bull run soon.We've had it. It's shown a rally of 7-8x in a matter of 2-3 years. Quite unusual and the typical price action of Silver is that it will fall back all of this run.I've got two levels marked for potential… pic.twitter.com/pBCN2n304B
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 24, 2026
India’s Silver Demand Raises Another Concern
India has authorized roughly 6,500 metric tons of silver imports ahead of its festive season. However, buyers remain hesitant after recent losses, Reuters reported.
Local premiums have fallen from $2.50 to just 45 cents an ounce, suggesting supply shortages are easing even as demand remains weak.
With the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28, silver’s next direction could depend on whether $52 holds and whether physical buyers return.

President Donald Trump said the US could strike Iran as soon as Sunday, or reach a deal instead. This comes as Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $80,546 after briefly dipping below $80,000 on Saturday.
So what happens to Bitcoin if a strike does come, or if a deal lands instead? Past instances may offer a clue.
What Past Iran Headlines Show
On October 8, Trump pledged to hold off on strikes until the November 3 midterms. Bitcoin dipped to $80,393 that day but closed at $81,754, according to TradingView data for Binance.
On October 22, a report on post-midterm US and Israeli strike plans emerged. Bitcoin fell from an October 21 high of $84,898 to $80,939, closing the day at $81,416.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $635.49 million that day, a day after drawing $528.40 million.
As talk of a weekend strike built, Bitcoin fell to $79,220 on Saturday. It recovered to close the day at $80,888. Escalation headlines cut Bitcoin by 2% to 5% intraday, while the pledge brought no lasting rally.
Bitcoin price chart marking October 2026 US-Iran headlines and the $80,000 level. Source: BeInCrypto Leveraged Longs Took the Hit Near $80,000
CoinGlass data shows $543.68 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $461.19 million.
Crypto Liquidations on October 25. Source: Coinglass
The $80,000 level also matters for institutional holders. Glassnode places the cost basis of ETF and treasury-company investors between $80,000 and $81,500.
According to the firm, a daily close below $80,000 would leave the average holder at a loss. It would also bring the True Market Mean near $77,600 into view.
A weekend strike could test that line quickly.
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What a Strike Could Mean When Markets Reopen
Because Bitcoin trades through the weekend, it would likely absorb the first reaction to any strike.
Past strikes offer a mixed guide. When the war began on February 28, Bitcoin fell to $63,030 but closed the day at $66,973. After the early September strikes, it dipped to $76,264, then jumped 5.08% on September 3.
Gold could also feel pressure when traditional markets reopen. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s correlation with gold set an eight-year record in September and remains near it.
Its dollar correlation is among its most negative, so a rush into the dollar could weigh on both.
Oil adds inflation risk, with Brent at $117.30 on Friday. A strike could push it higher before the Fed decides on October 28.
A deal could cool those worries, though the October 8 pledge showed relief can be modest. Thus, Bitcoin’s response to these headlines is the signal to watch this weekend.
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The AI boom is creating huge demand for training data and the expensive computers that power it. Grayscale has identified three cryptocurrencies targeting these growing needs. Their prices, however, tell very different stories.
In an October 23 research note, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl highlighted DATA Network (DATA), USD.AI (CHIP), and Pearl (PEARL).
Each addresses a different part of AI infrastructure, from supplying training data to financing computer chips and earning revenue from computing power.
Frontier tech and crypto are converging.Crypto projects part of the AI buildout:$DATA → Licensing and verifying AI training data.$CHIP → Financing GPU hardware through onchain loans.$PEARL → Merging proof-of-work with AI compute, letting miners earn rewards while powering… pic.twitter.com/XKdhrNxguN
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) October 23, 2026
1. DATA Network (DATA): Selling the Data AI Needs
AI models learn from images, videos, and voice recordings. DATA aims to collect this material with permission, license it to AI developers, and reward contributors.
On October 12, the Sui Foundation announced a $30 million investment in the network. DATA also plans to migrate to Sui, transferring existing tokens one-for-one.
Yet investors have seen little relief. DATA has fallen 42.07% over 90 days to $0.15243, including a 34.65% decline over the past month.
Data Network Price Chart. Source: BeInCrypto 2. USD.AI (CHIP): Financing Expensive AI Chips
AI requires powerful graphics processors, or GPUs. USD.AI helps computing companies borrow money against this hardware and its future income, using blockchain-based lending pools.
In August, Bullish announced a $100 million financing facility supporting USD.AI’s GPU loans.
CHIP has gained 47.98% over 90 days to $0.04386, although it remains roughly 69% below its April peak.
3. Pearl (PEARL): Making GPUs Earn Twice
Pearl proposes using the same computing capacity for AI workloads and blockchain mining. Providers could earn AI revenue while collecting tokens for securing the network.
PEARL is the standout performer, surging 528.24% in 90 days to $2.00. However, it has retreated about 19% from its October 21 record of $2.46.
Supply also poses a risk. Around 1.2 million new tokens are estimated to enter circulation daily, while its $4.2 billion fully diluted valuation far exceeds its $713 million market cap.
PEARL Gained Over 240% Year-to-Date. Source: CoinGecko
Grayscale sees potential in all three projects, although their success remains uncertain.
“Their long-term relevance will depend on adoption and competitive economics. We are keeping an eye on them,” Pandl said.

Ethereum (ETH) saw roughly 169,770 coins leave exchanges on net, per Santiment. That marked its largest outflow day in over 4 months, a pattern last seen just before June’s rebound.
Fewer coins on exchanges usually means less supply ready for sellers. However, US spot Ethereum funds have bled $1.18 billion in October, so buyers have yet to follow.
Santiment Points Back to Ethereum’s June 5 Rebound
Santiment linked the latest spike to June 5, when about 223,800 ETH left exchanges. That day, ETH sank to its lowest price since April 2025.
That outflow marked a local buy point, with the price recovering quickly. Still, the firm cautioned that history does not guarantee a repeat.
Ethereum exchange net inflow/outflow chart, Source: X/Santiment
If large outflows continue while ETH holds current levels, the firm said supply would increasingly favor buyers. However, fund data suggests many buyers are still waiting.
ETF Money and US Buyers Keep Their Distance
US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows on 14 of 16 trading days in October, perSoSoValue.
Those withdrawals totaled $1.18 billion through October 22. Over the same stretch, total net assets slipped to $14.57 billion, the lowest since August 21.
Ethereum spot ETF daily net flows, Source: SoSoValue
Coinbase buyers look equally hesitant. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index read -0.134 after sliding through most of October.
A negative reading means ETH trades lower on Coinbase than on Binance, often read as weaker US demand.
Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index, Source: CryptoQuant
Exchange-wide cash has thinned too. BeInCrypto reported that stablecoin reserves on major exchanges have drained since April, leaving less fresh money to buy dips.
That gap between tightening supply and hesitant demand leaves analysts divided on where ETH settles.
Where Analysts Expect Ethereum to Find Its Footing
ETH traded at $2,377.29 at press time, down 1.03% over the past 24 hours. That leaves it just below $2,400, which Santiment called the immediate pivot.
Ethereum price performance, Source: BeInCrypto Markets
A sustained reclaim of $2,500 would strengthen the bottoming case, according to the firm. Losing about $2,330 would weaken it.
Analyst Ted Pillows sets a slightly higher bar for a trend change.
$ETH tapped the $2,350-$$2,360 support zone and is now bouncing back.Overall momentum is still weak for Ethereum and it won't change until it reclaims $2,550. pic.twitter.com/5vrQrP8PkZ
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 23, 2026
Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, looks below Santiment’s $2,330 line for an entry. He expects new highs once the correction ends.
“I’d be max bidding everything beneath $2,300 as then I think that we’ll reverse quite quickly,” the analyst said.
Meanwhile, analyst Ash Crypto pointed to a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart. He added that the upside could be significant if the setup plays out.
If outflows continue while ETH holds above $2,330, the June comparison may stay alive. A break lower would put van de Poppe’s sub-$2,300 zone in play.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $80,000 on Saturday as more than $200 million in crypto positions were liquidated within an hour. Traders betting on higher prices accounted for $191.33 million of that total.
Ethereum (ETH) fell alongside the leading crypto. BeInCrypto Markets data shows the total crypto market cap down 4.06% over the past 24 hours, at $2.72 trillion. The liquidation data shows who absorbed most of the losses.
Bullish Traders Absorb the Heaviest Losses
The hourly wave formed part of a larger 24-hour total. Data from Coinglass shows $837.12 million in liquidations over that period, hitting 227,681 traders.
Long positions made up 82.8% of that figure, or $693.05 million. Short sellers lost $144.07 million.
Bitcoin led the tally with $232.55 million, followed by Ethereum at $181.51 million. Longs accounted for more than 93% of each.
Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto liquidations heatmap over 24 hours. Source: Coinglass
Binance recorded the largest single liquidation, an $11.85 million long on the ETHUSDT pair. Price data shows how far the sell-off reached beyond derivatives.
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Bitcoin Slips Under the Price Corporate Treasuries Paid
Bitcoin traded at $79,464 at press time, down 2.48% over 24 hours. This marked its lowest level since September 18.
Bitcoin price daily chart shows BTC below $80,000. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
Altcoins fell harder. Ethereum lost 4.71% over the same period to $2,288.73, its lowest level in about two months. Solana (SOL) dropped 5.20% to $98.92.
Zcash (ZEC) posted the steepest decline in the top 10, sliding 8.39% to $1,124.36.
Bitcoin now sits below $80,000, the average price that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets paid per coin, according to Glassnode estimates. That puts the average corporate treasury position at a loss.
Earlier on Saturday, analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that a weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would support his bearish path. He said the scenario becomes void if Bitcoin climbs back above $83,000 and holds there.
BeInCrypto’s analysis flagged $77,876 as the next downside level. Below that, a support zone sits between roughly $76,700 and $72,500.
The market has tested similar ground this month. On October 8, total crypto market cap fell to $2.69 trillion before a Trump pledge on Iran eased the pressure. Today’s $2.72 trillion sits about 1% above that floor.
$BTC and $ETH are selling off on an illiquid weekend.Is crypto front-running something? pic.twitter.com/vMFLwElNhK
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 24, 2026
Next week brings more tests. The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28, and September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data follows on October 29.
Brent crude also settled at $116.72 on Friday, a level that could keep inflation elevated. Whether buyers defend $77,876 before those events could decide how much room Bitcoin has left.
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Bitcoin has spent October making both bulls and bears look foolish. It slipped below $80,000 last week, recovered toward $84,000 this week, then fell back toward $81,000.
Each bounce has looked promising. Each reversal has exposed how little confidence there is behind it.
The damage is much worse beneath Bitcoin’s price. In its October 17–23 Token Pulse report, Bitunix found that roughly 80% of the 300 largest tokens it tracks lost value.
Their median weekly return was −3.98%, compared with Bitcoin’s relatively modest 0.71% decline. Cardano, NEAR and SUI lost more than 5%. Starknet’s STRK plunged 39.2%.
An overall crypto market recovery becomes harder to sustain when most cryptocurrencies are still falling.
Bitcoin Volatility Between $80,000 and $84,000 in October Why Does Bitcoin Keep Reversing Course?
Expectations for US interest rates have shifted repeatedly. Early-week comments about labor-market weakness encouraged hopes of further Federal Reserve cuts. Bitcoin rose as investors anticipated cheaper money.
Stronger economic data then challenged expectations for rapid easing, sending it lower again, according to Bitunix.
Institutional money has been equally unpredictable.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $526.7 million on October 19 and $524.8 million on October 21. The following day, $635.6 million flowed out.
That represents a remarkable $1.16 billion swing in net flows between consecutive sessions.
Macro Pressure on Crypto Markets
The pressure extends beyond crypto.
In Bitunix’s weekly stock-contract review, Intel fell 10.52% and Micron declined 8.05%. On October 22, the Nasdaq lost 2.6% as investors questioned the enormous cost of the AI boom.
Bitcoin fell alongside technology shares as investors reduced their appetite for risk.
Oil complicates the outlook further. Brent gained 6.8% over Bitunix’s reporting period amid escalating Middle East tensions. More expensive energy could keep inflation elevated, making interest-rate cuts harder to justify.
Even the few crypto winners are struggling. Lighter’s LIT gained 12.19% over seven days, supported by stronger platform activity and plans to seek US derivatives registrations. Yet it dropped more than 11% in the final 24 hours.
Spot weakened. Positioning told a more complicated story.BTC and ETH faced ETF outflows while derivatives longs remained elevated, as TRX showed relative resilience.⬇️ Dive into the full Blue-Chip Reporthttps://t.co/BF4oEvrwkC pic.twitter.com/otOFNV9Z0k
— Bitunix (@BitunixOfficial) October 23, 2026
Will Bitcoin Recover Before October Ends?
The next major test arrives almost immediately.
The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, followed by the September core PCE inflation report on October 29.
Annual core PCE inflation stood at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Cooler inflation or reassuring Fed guidance could help Bitcoin challenge 84,000–85,000 again.
Persistent inflation, further ETF withdrawals or another technology-stock selloff could bring $80,000 back into focus.
For now, repeated recoveries show buyers remain willing to step in near $80,000. The sharp reversals suggest they have yet to establish control.
October’s volatility reflects a market with buyers at lower prices, but limited confidence in a sustained rally.

American Express (Amex) shares closed 3.62% lower on Friday. This came as a surprise, as the credit card giant exceeded Q3 profit estimates.
The company also announced plans to cut about 5% of its 77,000 global workforce to prepare for AI. Amex is also taking a $336 million restructuring charge tied to the plan.
Amex Wants Fewer Layers Before It Hands Work to AI
Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec gave CNBC three reasons for the move.
To make Amex leaner
To make the company more agile
To prepare it for AI
He also explained why the job cuts have to come before the automation.
“You don’t want to automate processes that are not optimally structured. So what we’re doing here is to reduce layers and increase spans of controls, so that we can automate and take advantage of AI in the coming quarters and the coming years,” Le Caillec said.
Amex is not the only lender cutting staff. A day earlier, Barclays confirmed it would cut 5,000 jobs, about 5% of its workforce, in a tech-driven cost push.
Six of the biggest US banks also shed 15,000 employees while lifting first-quarter profits 18% to $47 billion.
At Amex, the restructuring also shows up in the profit forecast. The company is paying for it with part of the one-time gain.
American Express stock price chart on October 23, 2026. Source: Google Finance Why Did Amex Stock Fall Despite Strong Earnings?
The problem was how the company achieved those profits.
Amex’s earnings per share rose 13%, but its underlying pretax profit grew just 1.6%. Much of the earnings growth came from a lower tax bill and share buybacks, rather than stronger business performance.
Revenue also missed Wall Street’s expectations.
Meanwhile, Amex raised its annual profit forecast, but the increase was largely driven by a one-time gain from selling a business stake. Excluding that gain and restructuring costs, its outlook improved only slightly.
For investors, the results suggested Amex’s underlying business was growing more slowly than its headline earnings implied.
That disappointment, combined with uncertainty around its AI restructuring plans and a broader market sell-off, likely contributed to Friday’s decline.
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Arthur Hayes has sold about $22.28 million in crypto from Maelstrom’s directional book. Hayes, the family office’s chief investment officer, confirmed the exit on X and plans to sit out the market.
The post is a shift from his tone earlier this month. On October 15, Hayes urged traders to go long Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and trade an eventual bailout.
What Arthur Hayes Sold, and Why He Says He Left
Lookonchain data shows his biggest sale was 6,400 ETH, worth $15.2 million. Hayes also sold 14 million Ethena (ENA) for $2.76 million and 323,000 Uniswap (UNI) for $2.24 million.
Smaller sales included 1.89 million Ether.fi (ETHFI) and stakes in Aerodrome Finance (AERO), Pendle (PENDLE), and Zama (ZAMA).
Hayes then confirmed the exit in a post, citing macro and geopolitical risks.
I dumped it all. The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins. I think we gotta go down to go up. It looks a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land. Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the all clear signal … Brrrrr
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 24, 2026
Did Hayes Sell at a Profit This Time?
Hayes says he took profits on ETH and ENA. Lookonchain valued his 6,400 ETH at $15.2 million, or about $2,375 per coin, though his cost for those coins is not public.
ENA offers a clearer comparison. In early August, he bought 9.05 million ENA for about $773,000, or roughly $0.085 per token.
Lookonchain valued Saturday’s ENA sale at about $0.20 per token. Still, it is unconfirmed whether the tokens sold are the same ones bought in August.
His newest bets fared worse. In mid-October, he bought Aerodrome, Pendle, and Zama tokens, Lookonchain reported.
Arthur Hayes(@CryptoHayes) bought 546,610 $AERO ($460K), 120,000 $PENDLE ($232K), and 3M $ZAMA ($197K) an hour ago.https://t.co/gau6egd7Vm pic.twitter.com/qzdgCflNf6
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 15, 2026
He paid about $889,000 for them and sold them for about $856,000, based on Lookonchain’s prices at each trade. That leaves a loss of roughly $33,000.
The Slide Goes Beyond Hayes’ Tokens
His exit came during a broader market downturn. Six of the seven tokens he sold are down over the past month, according to BeInCrypto Markets.
Arthur Hayes Sold Tokens’ 1-Month Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
The decline also puts Hayes’ earlier price targets in perspective. His September forecasts of $10,000 for ETH, $0.50 for ENA, and $2 for ETHFI remain well above current prices.
Broader market stress intensified this month. On October 15, crypto liquidations reached $942.1 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 91.6% of the total.
On October 23, another selloff sent the Nasdaq down 2.6% and Bitcoin toward $81,400. Rising oil prices added to inflation concerns, putting monetary policy back in focus.
Why the Fed Is the Next Test
The Federal Reserve’s next decision, due October 28, could shape the outlook for risk assets. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4% on September 16, its first hike since July 2023. CME FedWatch data puts the odds of a hold at 90%.
The longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Minutes from September’s meeting showed most officials expected another hike by year-end. Hayes, by contrast, has argued that an eventual AI bailout would flood markets with new money.
His own trading history offers another reason to watch how he handles the latest exit. In August 2025, Hayes sold ETH near $3,507 and bought back nine days later at about $4,252.
A trader who copied the move would have paid roughly 21% more to reenter. For altcoin holders, the October 28 decision could help determine whether Hayes’ latest exit proves timely or premature.
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Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break weekend. After failing to hold $83,000, the cryptocurrency is now facing a more uncomfortable level at $80,000.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that a weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would strengthen his bearish outlook for the rest of 2026. His warning comes as Bitcoin faces pressure well beyond its own price chart.
Why Bitcoin’s $80,000 Level Matters
The latest failed rally has already punished bullish traders. During one four-hour selloff, long positions accounted for $91.19 million of $95.22 million in crypto liquidations.
More concerning, Glassnode estimates that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets paid about $80,000 per coin on average.
Falling below that level would put the average corporate treasury position into a loss. It would not automatically force companies to sell, but it could weaken confidence.
A plausible path to consider (in order). Becomes void if Bitcoin gets and holds back above $83k-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again)-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25)-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28)-PCE comes in hot (Oct 29)-Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120)-Long end…
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) October 24, 2026
A separate BeInCrypto analysis identifies $77,876 as the next downside level if selling persists, followed by a support zone between roughly $76,700 and $72,500.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs also lost about $322 million on October 22, suggesting institutional buying has weakened.
What Happens to Bitcoin Next Week?
The calendar offers little relief. The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, with Cowen expecting interest rates to stay unchanged. September inflation data follows on October 29.
Oil adds another complication. Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday as Middle East supply fears intensified. Expensive energy could keep inflation elevated, while rising Treasury yields make speculative investments less attractive.
Bitcoin’s Extreme Volatility in October
History also gives bears ammunition. Binance Research puts Bitcoin’s average decline during previous US midterm election years at 56%. But that record covers only three Bitcoin cycles, making it a warning rather than a reliable prediction.
There is also a clear way for Bitcoin to break Cowen’s bearish scenario.
For now, the immediate test is whether buyers defend $80,000. A sustained recovery above $83,000 would weaken the bearish case.
Losing $80,000 could expose Bitcoin to another wave of selling just as November’s US midterm elections approach.

Uniswap (UNI) has lost 25.75% of its value over the past month, sliding to $6.93. On-chain data, however, shows new users arriving at the fastest pace since November 2022.
Santiment counted 2,295 new UNI wallets in a single day. The firm said that influx could firm up a price base, provided wallet creation stays elevated.
Uniswap’s v4 Push Pulls In Fresh Wallets
Santiment’s network growth metric counts addresses interacting with UNI for the first time. The firm said a four-year high signals a large influx of new participants.
UNI Network Growth Hitting its Highest Level Since November 2022. Source: X/Santiment
Santiment credited new Uniswap v4 features, wider liquidity routing, and ongoing work on Unichain, Uniswap’s layer-2 network.
DefiLlama data shows Uniswap v4 now holds about $1.44 billion in total value locked (TVL). That marks a roughly 17% rise over the past month.
So far, however, the activity has not stopped the token’s decline. UNI is down 3.82% over the past 24 hours, adding to its monthly losses, per BeInCrypto Markets data
Uniswap Price Performance Over the Past Month. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
Analyst Phoenix traced the decline to seller pressure after UNI tested the $10 mark. He noted the price has since dropped below the Ichimoku cloud and its moving averages on shrinking volume.
Phoenix warned that a full breakdown of $7 could send UNI toward $6 to $6.50. The token now sits just under that line at $6.93.
Santiment framed the same level in terms of user demand.
“Holding $7 while network growth remains above its recent baseline would favor another test of $8, while losing $7 alongside fading wallet creation would suggest the spike was mostly short-term excitement rather than sustained adoption,” the post read.
UNI Price Outlook
Winning back those losses starts with a move above $7. Santiment named $7.50 as the first meaningful level to reclaim, followed by $8.
On October 21, when UNI traded above $7, analyst Scient flagged bullish four-hour divergences. He floated a possible squeeze similar to Zcash’s (ZEC).
Analyst Defi Rocketeer finds the $7 area more interesting than the rally near $11. He expects a $10 to $12 retest if the broader market stabilizes. Analyst CryptoBullet places major resistance further up, at $13 to $15.
$UNI Macro chartBiggest DEX with a daily trading volume of $1-2 billion, $UNI token is tied to protocol usage through supply burns 🔥🔨 Major Resistance is $13-15🎯 Macro Target 1 – $24-30🎯 Macro Target 2 – $56-71 pic.twitter.com/Db6DITXLt4
— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) October 20, 2026
For holders, the next signals to watch are Santiment’s network growth readings and whether UNI can close above $7. A recovery in both would bring Santiment’s $8 test back into play.
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Swiss blue chips lead euro-area peers by almost 8 percentage points in October, the widest gap since March 2020.
The Swiss Market Index (SMI) is up 4.6% this month, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 3.2%. Bloomberg linked the gap to 3 forces pushing investors to cut risk in Europe.
Rising borrowing costs
Growing doubts about the AI trade
Political turmoil in France and Spain
3 Giants Carry the Swiss Lead
Investors in Europe have favored profitable companies with strong balance sheets, which are less exposed to rising borrowing costs. Bloomberg named the SMI one of the biggest beneficiaries of that shift, and its 3 largest companies produced the entire October gain.
Drugmaker Roche has climbed 12% in October, and rival Novartis has added 6.7%. Food group Nestlé has gained 10%.
Together, the 3 make up almost half the SMI’s value. Buying the index today is largely a bet on those 3 stocks.
SMI vs Euro Stoxx 50 Performance in October 2026. Source: TradingView
Their run coincided with a global selloff in AI shares. CNBC said 20 of the top AI and chip stocks shed over $1 trillion from October 12 to 15.
Investors worried that higher borrowing costs could weigh on AI spending. Global corporate bond spreads have since widened to their highest since May 2025.
Damian Burkhardt of EFG Asset Management tied the Swiss gains to that retreat from AI.
“Investors like the defensiveness of Swiss stocks and are actively looking for alternatives to the crowded AI trades. Healthcare was the funding sector for the AI trade, and that is reversing now,” he said.
Bank of America’s global fund manager survey shows how crowded that trade was before the selloff.
Managers polled from October 2 to 8 held their largest tech allocation since August 2020. BofA’s separate European survey ranked Switzerland joint second at a net 16%, behind Spain’s net 28%.
The rally has also made Swiss shares pricier, which raises the question of how far it can run.
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The world economy is entering a dangerous period, but a Great Depression-style collapse is still a remote possibility.
A prolonged economic slowdown, further stock-market corrections, and a potential recession in some major economies are much more credible risks.
What’s more concerning is a combination of problems developing simultaneously.
Wall Street is questioning whether the enormous investments in AI will generate sufficient profits.
China’s domestic economy remains weak.
The war in the Middle East has pushed oil prices above $117 a barrel.
Inflation is proving stubborn, and governments have less financial flexibility to rescue their economies.
Individually, these problems are manageable. Together, they increase the possibility of a more serious downturn.
What the Latest Economic Data Tells Us
There’s an important distinction between a financial-market crash and an economic crisis. Stocks can fall 30% without producing a global depression.
The situation becomes much more dangerous when declining asset prices trigger defaults, reduce lending, and cause businesses to cut investment and jobs.
We have evidence of the first stage, but it’s much weaker for a worldwide economic breakdown.
However, these forecasts rely on assumptions about energy supplies, financial conditions, and investment that could deteriorate. The IMF’s projections were based on information available through October 1, before the latest market turmoil.
The biggest concern is that the global economy has become unusually dependent on a few sources of growth while its traditional economic safety mechanisms are under pressure.
AI Economy is the Biggest Risk of 2027
AI spending has become a significant contributor to investment growth in the United States. It has also supported exports from Asian chipmakers and generated orders for companies building data centers.
A serious reduction in AI spending would affect a much wider set of industries than technology shares.
The problem is the interconnected financing.
An AI company may receive money from a technology investor and then commit to buying computing services from that investor. Those promised future purchases help justify further infrastructure spending and borrowing.
If the AI company’s revenue disappoints, multiple businesses can suffer simultaneously. The investor’s stake loses value, future service revenue becomes uncertain, and creditors become concerned about repayment.
The IMF explicitly identifies this interconnected financing as a potential channel for wider financial stress.
The most frightening economic scenario is a sequence of AI infrastructure bankruptcies followed by widespread cancellations of data-center projects. That would indicate that the decline had moved beyond stock valuations.
So far, evidence of that industry-wide collapse is lacking.
Oil and Inflation are at the Heart of All Financial Nightmare
The second major risk is the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude reached approximately $116–117 on October 23, while the US 10-year Treasury yield was around 5%.
These two figures create an uncomfortable situation for central banks.
Consider what happens if businesses begin losing customers and unemployment rises.
Ordinarily, a central bank could respond by reducing interest rates. Cheaper financing would help households and businesses.
But if oil prices remain high, inflation may remain elevated. Cutting interest rates aggressively could then intensify inflationary pressures.
President Trump keeps boasting that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that more oil is coming out of the Strait than before the war.If that's true, why is the price SOARING?SOMETHING DOESN'T ADD UP.2+2≠5 pic.twitter.com/rjiEzEJKEY
— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) October 23, 2026
In its October forecast, the IMF estimated that a prolonged Middle East conflict keeping oil above $130 through the first quarter of 2027 could reduce next year’s global growth rate by around 0.5 percentage points.
Can China Trigger a Worldwide Recession?
China’s economic problems are important because it is one of the world’s largest manufacturing economies and a major consumer of raw materials.
Its property crisis has reduced household confidence. Weak spending is holding back business revenue, and companies have been cutting prices to compete for customers.
There are two possible international spillovers.
First, a slowdown in Chinese imports. If China’s construction and manufacturing sectors reduce their purchases, commodity producers and exporters elsewhere may suffer.
Second, more intense export competition. Chinese manufacturers facing weak domestic demand may seek more customers overseas.
Cheaper goods could help contain inflation in importing countries, while putting pressure on competing manufacturers and increasing trade tensions.
🚨 ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH IN GLOBAL MARKETS$10 TRILLION has been wiped out from global stock markets from their yearly highs.🇰🇷 South Korea: -43%, wiped out $1.15T🇮🇩 Indonesia: -42.39%, wiped out $0.40T🇹🇷 Turkey: -29%, wiped out $0.12T🇨🇳 China: -19%, wiped out $2.90T🇭🇰 Hong… pic.twitter.com/ZKxGg5mb3e
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 23, 2026
China’s situation is a persistent drag on world growth. A more dangerous scenario would involve disorderly failures at major financial institutions or a sudden deterioration in credit availability.
China still has substantial state control over its banking system and capacity to intervene, which can reduce immediate financial contagion.
That does not eliminate the cost of prolonged economic weakness.
We Might Not See Another Great Depression, Yet
There are several important signs that the financial system is still functioning.
US unemployment remains relatively low. The September unemployment rate was 4.2%. Hiring is weak, with just 29,000 jobs added, but we have not yet seen the widespread layoffs characteristic of a major economic crisis.
New unemployment claims remain contained. Weekly initial claims fell to 194,000 in the latest report, the lowest level in three months.
Broad corporate credit markets are functioning. US high-yield corporate credit spreads were around 3.27 percentage points on October 21. By comparison, they reached almost 20 points during the 2008 credit crisis. Today’s figure does not indicate a comparable system-wide credit freeze.
The IMF also describes the global banking system as broadly resilient, although it warns of vulnerabilities in private credit and highly leveraged investment strategies.
The important comparison is therefore closer to the early-2000s technology correction, with additional energy and sovereign-debt risks.
A 2008-style crisis would become more plausible if the losses spread through credit markets, major lenders became distressed and access to financing deteriorated sharply.
A 1930s-style depression would require an even more severe and prolonged breakdown in economic activity.
Neither is established by the market evidence available today.
September 2022. Unemployment: 5.7 million.September 2026. Unemployment: 7.1 million.Up 1.4 million. Up 24%.Inflation still high. Rates still rising. Purchasing power still falling.Soft landing confirmed. pic.twitter.com/bp94UZBMjd
— Casey Donaldson (@caseyjdonaldson) October 23, 2026
4 Possible Outcomes for 2027
A broader analysis can divide the next 12–18 months into four scenarios.
These probability estimates are my subjective assessment of the current evidence. They are not outputs from a calibrated forecasting model.
Most Likely: Painful Market Correction, Continued Economic Growth
Technology stocks experience further repricing. AI investment growth slows, oil eventually stabilizes and the world economy continues expanding unevenly.
Stock markets remain volatile, although diversified investors may see recoveries before economic data noticeably improves.
Material Downside Risk: Stagflation and Regional Recessions
High energy prices persist. Consumer spending weakens and businesses reduce investment. One or more major economies enter recession, while global growth remains weak but positive.
Equities could enter a prolonged bear market, and central banks have limited flexibility to stimulate growth.
Severe Downside: Synchronized Global Recession and Financial Stress
AI investment declines sharply, defaults spread through vulnerable borrowers and financial institutions restrict lending. Higher unemployment and falling demand reinforce each other across major economies.
This would resemble aspects of 2008, with substantial losses across risky assets.
What Does This Mean for Crypto Markets?
Crypto investors should pay particular attention because their portfolios can be highly exposed to changes in global liquidity.
Bitcoin was trading around $82,000 on October 23. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $636 million in net outflows on October 22, following three days of strong inflows.
Institutional digital-asset platform Talos estimated Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq at around 0.6 on October 22. That indicates meaningful positive co-movement recently, though the relationship changes over time.
Market environmentLikely implicationsAI-led stock correctionBitcoin may remain volatile, with losses concentrated in speculative altcoinsInflation and high rates persistBorrowing stays expensive; liquidity-sensitive crypto assets face pressureRecession and forced deleveragingBitcoin and altcoins could fall sharply as investors raise cashInflation falls and liquidity improvesConditions may become more supportive for crypto recovery
The important point is that Bitcoin cannot be assumed to protect a portfolio during an immediate financial panic.
An asset can have a long-term scarcity thesis and still fall sharply when investors urgently need liquidity.
Traders should be particularly cautious about altcoins going into 2027. Many have weaker liquidity and depend heavily on speculative demand. Some may not recover even if Bitcoin eventually reaches new highs.
There is a possible positive development for crypto further ahead. If inflation falls enough for central banks to ease monetary policy while financial stability is preserved, Bitcoin could benefit from improved liquidity.
But aggressive rate cuts during a financial crisis would not necessarily produce an immediate crypto rally. Forced selling often comes first.
Bitcoin’s Extreme Volatility in 2026. Source: CoinGecko 5 Warning Signs to Monitor in 2027 IndicatorWhat would make me more concernedAI company earningsMajor firms begin cutting data-center spending because expected returns are disappointingOil pricesBrent remains above $120–130 for an extended periodUS unemploymentA sustained rise from 4.2% toward 5% or higherCorporate credit spreadsUS high-yield spreads widen substantially, especially beyond 5–6 percentage pointsBanking and private creditDefaults accelerate and lenders significantly reduce access to financing
These are monitoring thresholds, not precise recession triggers.
If oil prices decline, credit markets remain stable and corporate earnings hold up, the global outlook could improve substantially.

Oil is climbing toward its yearly high, and the timing could hardly be worse for financial markets. Wall Street is already struggling, Bitcoin has fallen sharply, and investors now face another threat: a renewed US war with Iran after the midterm elections.
Brent crude touched $117.42 per barrel on Friday, October 23, its highest since April. Here are the latest catalysts:
The immediate trigger was fresh attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Aramco evacuated its headquarters as fighting intensified.
An oil spill near the United Arab Emirates added to concerns about shipping security.
The bigger concern comes from Washington. The US and Israel have reportedly prepared plans for renewed strikes against Iran, potentially targeting energy infrastructure after the November 3 elections.
The White House says no attack will happen before the vote. Military planning does not guarantee strikes will follow.
BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $117/barrel for the first time since March 19th amid fears that the US will renew strikes on Iran.Brent crude oil is now $2 away from breaking above its high of the year.Inflation expectations are pushing higher. pic.twitter.com/G625elCiWj
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 23, 2026
Why Are Stocks and Bitcoin Falling?
Thursday offered a warning. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.2%. Bitcoin dropped toward $81,400 as crypto liquidations approached $441 million.
Concerns over enormous AI spending triggered much of the technology selloff. Rising oil prices added another problem.
More expensive energy pushes inflation higher, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive interest rates. That threatens corporate earnings and makes speculative assets such as Bitcoin less attractive.
Friday’s reaction remained mixed, with the Nasdaq recovering slightly while the Dow declined.
Bitcoin Volatility in October Will the Midterms Bring Another Market Crash?
History offers some reassurance. According to MSCI, US stocks gained an average of 12% in the six months following the past 13 midterm elections.
However, this year’s biggest uncertainty could emerge after voting ends.
Renewed strikes against Iran could push oil beyond $120 and toward its yearly peak, raising the risk of another inflation-driven selloff. De-escalation could ease oil prices and support a recovery.
For now, the next direction of stocks and crypto may depend more on what happens in the Middle East than who wins Congress.

Copper fell 2.68% on October 22, breaking an April support trendline that had held through five tests. The drop came two days after BloombergNEF warned of a copper supply deficit reaching 44% of demand by 2050.
Yet the same report rates the 2026 copper market in surplus. Traders appear to be pricing that near-term cushion, not the long-term gap.
Why Is Copper the Odd One Out?
BloombergNEF (BNEF) published its annual Transition Metals Outlook on October 20. Nine of the 10 materials it covers should have enough supply through 2050.
Copper is the exception. BNEF projects a 20 million tonne shortfall by 2050, starting as early as 2028.
Demand is set to climb 61% to nearly 46 million tonnes a year. Electrified transport alone accounts for 11.4 million.
Closing the gap would take $332 billion in new mines. Each one needs about 17 years to start producing, according to BNEF.
Martin Tengler, BNEF’s head of metals and mining, framed it as a timing problem.
“The challenge now is less about whether the world can produce enough metals overall, and more about whether the right materials will be available when and where they are needed.”
The metal exists. The US Geological Survey (USGS) puts global reserves near 980 million tonnes.
Copper needs $ 332bn of new mines.Each one takes about 17 years to build.Bloomberg new outlook sees a deficit starting in 2028 and widening to 20 million tonnes by 2050. That’s about 44% of demand.9 of the 10 transition metals it tracks now look covered. Copper is the odd… pic.twitter.com/fRAzWMLowS
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) October 20, 2026
Why Did Copper Fall Anyway?
BNEF’s own scorecard also holds a sideways 12-month price view for copper.
Physical flows agree. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks rose to 272,950 tonnes, the highest since July 24, Reuters reported.
Most new metal landed in US warehouses. Comex, the main US futures exchange, slipped to a discount against the LME, erasing its tariff-driven premium.
Alastair Munro, senior metals strategist at broker Marex, linked the two.
“…the recent build in LME copper stocks was the result of the COMEX premium shrinking as contract delivery dates draw closer.”
A tech-stock selloff over AI doubts added pressure, dragging LME copper to a five-week low.
Copper Supply Deficit: What’s Next for XCU Price?
The breakdown confirms the risk flagged during copper’s fifth support test this week.
The trendline formed the base of a rising wedge, a pattern that often resolves lower. Volume also rose on the break.
Meanwhile, copper was rejected near $6.70 resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge, lost a support line dating to March.
XCU daily chart / Source: Tradingview
Copper now trades near $6.51 per pound, about 6% below its September record high. Resistance sits at $6.56, then at the broken trendline near $6.64.
On the downside, the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $6.31 could be the first target. Deeper supports lie at $6.11 and $5.91.
However, a daily close back above the trendline would weaken the bearish setup.
For now, copper trades on today’s surplus rather than the 2028 deficit. The bigger question is whether $332 billion in new mines arrives in time.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since August. Meanwhile, Bitcoin volatility keeps compressing ahead of the weekend.
Liquidation clusters, rising leverage, and fresh ETF outflows suggest the month-long range could break soon. Overall, the data tilts toward the downside.
Bitcoin Volatility: The Lose of 50-Day SMA
Bitcoin trades at $81,715, down 0.39% over the past 24 hours. On the daily chart, BTC lost the 50-day SMA (red arrow) after another rejection near $85,000.
The breakdown ends a month of choppy trade between roughly $81,000 and $85,000. During that period, sharp swings liquidated both longs and shorts without establishing a trend.
The Oct. 22 candle printed one of the heaviest selling volumes of the month. As a result, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $82,614 now acts as resistance.
BTC daily chart / Source: Tradingview
At the same time, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to roughly $6,000 wide. In contrast, they spanned about $30,000 during the August expansion.
Earlier this week, the bands hit their tightest reading in about 2.5 years. Historically, such compression precedes a sharp expansion in volatility.
However, Bollinger Bands do not reveal direction on their own. The loss of the 50-day SMA therefore tilts the odds lower.
Liquidation Clusters Set Up the Weekend Move
Coinglass data shows the largest liquidation pool on Binance sits between $82,500 and $82,650. That cluster lies about 1% above the price and overlaps the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Below, leveraged positions cluster near $80,850 and again around $80,000. Earlier this month, BTC slid toward $80,400 as over $1 billion in positions were liquidated.
Bitcoin volatility and Binance liquidation heatmap / Source: Coinglass
Binance accounts for about 20% of total open interest, so the map captures only part of the market. Still, these clusters mark levels where forced orders could accelerate a move.
Leverage also keeps building inside the range. Open interest stands at $54.09 billion, while OI-weighted funding remains positive at 0.0068%. Longs are still paying to hold their positions.
Funding has cooled from roughly 0.010% earlier this week, suggesting some excess leverage already cleared. Even so, positioning has not flipped to the short side that usually fuels a sustained squeeze.
This setup could favor a quick sweep toward $82,600, followed by a flush of late longs. The weekend may amplify that move.
CME futures, holding $9.36 billion in open interest, close for the weekend alongside US spot ETFs. Offshore perpetual markets with thinner liquidity will set the price instead.
ETF Outflows Tilt the Odds Lower
Institutional demand also cooled. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of 3,964 BTC on Oct. 22, worth roughly $322 million, according to Glassnode.
US spot ETF net flows in BTC / Source: Glassnode
The withdrawal followed two strong inflow days that backed the push toward $85,000. Historically, every major rally this year relied on a multi-day inflow streak.
Funds had already posted repeated outflows earlier in October. Without renewed buying, spot demand may struggle to absorb a leverage flush.
Bitcoin Volatility and Price Prediction Points to the Bull Market Support Band
A daily close below $81,000 could open the path to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $77,876. That target sits about 4.6% below the current price.
Below it lies the bull market support band. The range spans from the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $76,700 to the 20-week SMA at $72,500.
The 0.382 Fibonacci level at $73,139 adds confluence near the lower edge. Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council, flagged the same risk.
Bitcoin getting a daily close below the 50D SMA likely sends it to the bull market support band.Note that ETH, MSTR, NDQ, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, etc. are already at the bull market support band. pic.twitter.com/icuP6ZTqZt
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) October 22, 2026
A move into the band would not necessarily end the broader uptrend. However, a weekly close below $72,500 could challenge the bull market structure.
On the other hand, holding above $82,600 could trigger a squeeze toward $85,000. A daily close above $84,000 would invalidate the bearish structure.
For now, the data points to a volatile weekend rather than a calm one, with sellers holding the edge.