巴菲猜

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巴菲猜

勿忘初心，博弈问道

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巴菲猜

Bullish

Big cousin @CZ ’s photo with me, excited 🥳

BTC-0.54%

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巴菲猜

Bullish

Sister @heyi took a photo with me, my shining moment!
$BTC $币安人生 $BNB

Bullish

$AERO 看涨！

AERO-8.42%

巴菲猜

$ARB A lot was traded today, but the rebound hasn’t yet turned strong. As of 19:15, the contract’s trading volume for the day is about 396 million USDT, closing at 0.16543, which is 6.54% lower than the volume-weighted average price from 00:00 of 0.17700. In the afternoon, it rebounded from around 0.16004, but the price is still clearly below the day’s trading average.
This rebound isn’t enough to reverse the weakness. I’m not in a hurry to bottom-buy for now. Only if it can get back above 0.17700 can we say control has shifted back toward the bulls; if it breaks below 0.16004 again, it means the sell pressure hasn’t finished releasing. The volume-weighted average price is just a reference for today’s trading—not everyone’s cost basis. DYOR

ARB-8.59%

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$AKE In this run-up, I’m even less willing to short against the trend. The funding rates settled at 12:00 and 16:00 today were -0.39815% and -0.175706%, respectively—both indicate shorts are paying longs. Yet the price keeps rising. At 18:45, the 15-minute closing price reached 0.017202, surpassing the previous high of 0.017031.
For shorts, as the price moves upward they’re the ones who lose money; if their position carries past the settlement time, they may also have to pay funding. I’m still somewhat bullish in the short term, but I won’t chase a rally just because the funding rate is negative. If the 15-minute close drops below 0.016047, I won’t consider going long for the moment. Don’t just keep adding to shorts just because it’s been going up. DYOR

AKE-0.34%

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$DOOD After this big surge, can the pullback hold? Isn’t it more worth watching than what rank it holds on the gainers list?
The two intraday pullback lows this afternoon were 0.002112 and 0.002126, and the lows are being lifted. At 17:30 it surged again to 0.002333, but it still failed to break above the prior high of 0.002350, suggesting that there is still selling pressure overhead.
I’m temporarily bullish, but this is not yet a breakout. If the 15-minute close holds above 0.002350, then consider going long; if the close falls below 0.002112, then abandon this idea for now.
What you should most avoid now is taking “it’s about to break out” as “it has already broken out.” DYOR

DOOD-7.38%

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Verified

Article

PPI first, CPI as the finale: Don’t rush to chase or cut when going into this week

This week I’m focusing on two U.S. inflation data releases: August PPI will be published on Thursday at 20:30, and August CPI will be published on Friday at 20:30.$BTC I’ll trade as usual tonight, but since the U.S. stock market is closed for Labor Day, I’m only treating this volatility as the market’s action at the start of the data week—I won’t pre-emptively set the direction for the whole week.
First, the PPI provides price signals to the production side; then the CPI is used to gauge consumer-side inflation. The two sets of data are only a day apart. I’ll treat Thursday as the first round of observation, and Friday as the key confirmation. Once the PPI is released, I update my views and positions all at once—essentially answering one piece of information with the next, back-to-back. I don’t do trades like that.

BTC-0.54%

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$NEAR This wave of上涨 has volume support, but the follow-through is already slowing down.
As of 14:00, over the past 24 hours it rose from 2.213 to 2.390, an increase of 8.00%; trading volume was 423 million USDT, 55.0% higher than the previous 24 hours. However, the first 12 hours saw 275 million in volume, while the latter 12 hours had only 147 million, down 46.4%, and the price in the second half only gained a net 0.63%.
I see this as consolidation after a pull-up, so I’m not chasing it for now. Wait until hourly trading volume expands again and price moves up together, then look for an opportunity to go long; if a 1-hour high-volume break falls below the second-half low of 2.345, I’ll drop the idea of following through with a long entry. DYOR

NEAR+7.21%

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$ZEC price has risen, the position value has also increased, but open interest has edged down slightly. From 12:45 yesterday to 12:40 today (Beijing time), the price rose from 1113.98 to 1188.94, while open interest fell from 58.07 million ZEC to 56.80 million ZEC, a decrease of 2.19%; the USDT notional value, on the other hand, increased by 4.50%. This is mainly due to price revaluation and cannot be directly interpreted as new long positions chasing in.
So I would not use a "rise in notional holdings" as a basis for chasing longs. If the price continues to break higher later, I would rather see open interest expand in sync before judging whether there is fresh capital following through; if the divergence continues, I would do less. OI only indicates position size and cannot guarantee direction. DYOR

ZEC+2.93%

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$TAO Not only is it rising today, it is also leaving other AI-sector tokens, $WLD and $FET , far behind. As of 12:00 Beijing time, based on closed candles, over the past 24 hours TAO is up 13.06%, WLD is up 3.58%, and FET is up 3.86%, a gap of about 9 percentage points.
Over the past 12 hours, TAO is up 8.51%, while WLD and FET are only up 1.42% and 0.64% respectively, and the gap is still widening. However, in the last hour, after touching 277.12 it pulled back to 269.78, and there is already selling pressure above.
I will prioritize looking for long opportunities in TAO. On a pullback, first see whether it can hold around 260; if you want to chase the breakout, wait for an hourly close above 277.12. If the hourly close falls below 260, I will first abandon this bullish view. DYOR

$DOGE In the past two hours, trading volume has expanded, but the price has been moving down. I am leaning bearish in the short term.
Between 09:00 and 11:00 Beijing time, the total trading volume was about 89.84 million USDT, and the average hourly volume was 2.39 times that of the previous six hours; however, the price fell from 0.09095 to 0.09010. Volume has come out, but buyers have failed to push the price up, which is more worth noting than looking at trading volume alone.
By 11:39 it had already dropped to 0.08935, and 0.08967 has been broken first. I would rather wait for a rebound; if it cannot get back above that level, I will look for an opportunity to go short. If the 1-hour close rises back above 0.09138, I will drop this bearish view. DYOR

DOGE-4.49%

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$BYD (BYD H shares perpetual) went live on Binance at 10:00 today. In the first 15 minutes, it surged to a high of 12.51, but finally closed at only 10.81, basically giving back the initial spike.
Over the next 45 minutes, the ranges of the three 15-minute candlesticks were all no more than 0.10. Total trading volume was about 750,000 USDT, less than 40% of the first candlestick’s 2.06 million; as of 11:00, it closed at 10.80.
What I care more about is whether trading volume can pick up again later. The new contract has only been live for an hour, and 12.51 is just the opening high, so it cannot yet be treated as a mature resistance level for trading. Wait until quotes and volume stabilize, then look for opportunities to participate. DYOR

BYD-3.05%

巴菲猜

$FIDA has still risen about 8% over the past 24 hours, but on the contract side the premium index has closed in negative territory for 8 consecutive 15-minute candles, with an average of -0.2440%. The latest candle has narrowed to -0.07645%, so the pressure has eased somewhat; as of 10:15, the price closed at 0.02110, still not reclaiming 0.02148.
This set of data only shows that the deviation in the contract order book is improving; it cannot directly be used to conclude a rebound. I will wait for the 15-minute price to reclaim 0.02148 and for the premium index to keep improving before looking for a long opportunity.
If the 15-minute close falls below 0.02102, cancel this rebound watch. DYOR

FIDA-3.61%

巴菲猜

$TIA surged to 0.4808 today from 08:00 to 09:00, but ultimately closed at 0.4403, very close to the hour’s low of 0.4374. The full candle range was 0.0434, and the close was only about 7% from the lower end of the range; afterward, the next three 15-minute candles fell back to 0.4308.
My view is that this is not an ordinary minor pullback; almost all of the intrahour gain was given back. It is still up more than 10% over 24 hours, but focusing only on the gain would ignore the selling pressure above.
0.4471 is the previous hour’s high before the surge; only if it reclaims that level on the 1-hour chart can the pressure be said to have eased. If the 15-minute close falls below 0.4247, the retracement may continue to expand. DYOR

TIA-5.89%

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$ORCA As of 09:15 this morning, it had risen 10.27% over the past 4 hours. I am more focused on changes in the trading direction. In the latest 16 15-minute candlesticks, active buy turnover accounted for 51.85%; in the previous 16, it was only 44.41%. Over the same period, price action also shifted from a 3.22% decline to a 10.27% rise.
This suggests that chase buying is strengthening, but a higher share of active buys does not equal net capital inflow. As of 09:15, the closing price still had not moved above the previous high of 1.5440. I want to wait for a close to confirm it and not treat an intraday acceleration as a breakout directly.
If a 15-minute close later moves above 1.5440 and the active buy share over the most recent 4 hours remains above 50%, then it can be considered a breakout with order flow support; if the close falls below 1.4730, the short-term strength will be invalidated. DYOR

ORCA-1.85%

巴菲猜

$RAYSOL As of this morning at 08:45, over the past 24 hours it has risen by about 40%, and open interest has also increased significantly. From 09:00 yesterday morning to 08:45 this morning, open interest rose from 3.64 million to 8.41 million RAYSOL, an increase of 131%. Although that is 16% below the overnight peak, it is still much higher than yesterday morning.
The funding rate settled at 08:00 was -0.012285%, meaning shorts are paying longs in this round. A negative funding rate does not necessarily mean a short squeeze. What I want to see more is whether new positions follow through on the rebound, rather than just watching the gainers list.
My trading idea is to first look for range repair. 1.2051 is the low after this round of surge; if the 15-minute close breaks below it, I will abandon the rebound expectation. Above, I am watching the previous high at 1.4422. If the rebound only pushes price up while open interest keeps drifting down, I will not rush to chase longs. DYOR

RAYSOL+5.11%

巴菲猜

$JUP After the sharp drop from 0.2833 last night, the low did not continue moving down. At 22:30 it hit 0.2583, and since then until 08:00 this morning it did not break lower again; the price recovered to 0.2756. At 08:15 it returned to 0.2713, and the pullback has already begun. During the three 15-minute candles from 07:15 to 08:00, the trading volumes were 1.16 million, 1.16 million, and 2.30 million USDT, respectively, and the last one was 3.56 times the average of the previous 20 candles. Volume followed through, but the upper wick on the last candle was not short either, so I would not chase long here directly.
My plan is to wait for a pullback to 0.2670—0.2690, and if the 15-minute chart moves back above 0.2690, I will look for a chance to go long, first targeting 0.2833. If a 15-minute close falls below 0.2620, I will cancel the long plan. DYOR

JUP-4.06%

巴菲猜

$HYPE I am bearish in the short term. Bitcoin is holding steady, but it is still lagging behind.
From 23:00 on September 6 to 01:15 on September 7, Beijing time, HYPE fell 1.40%, while Bitcoin instead rose 0.12%, lagging by 1.52 percentage points.
The low of the consolidation range at a high level, 88.043, has also been broken. The 15-minute candlestick at 00:30 hit a low of 87.260. If there is a rebound later, I will prioritize looking for opportunities to short such lagging assets. Past gains cannot replace the current strength or weakness.
The invalidation condition is also clear: if the 15-minute chart reclaims 88.521 and this rally again outperforms Bitcoin, then I will drop the bearish bias on HYPE. DYOR

BTC-0.54%

HYPE-1.88%

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Verified

$LINK I’m taking a more bullish view on this Wyoming collaboration expansion: the same client has gone from cross-chain services to proof of reserves.
In the August 18 announcement, FRNT had already completed its cross-chain migration and also signed a multi-year contract. Then on September 2, it announced the adoption of proof of reserves, putting independently verified reserve data on-chain.
I pay more attention to clients like this, whose usage keeps getting deeper. Next, we need to watch service fees and the newly added LINK in reserves to confirm whether business growth can continue turning into token demand. Secure Mint is still in the adoption process and should not be treated as live yet. As long as usage and revenue keep up, this bullish narrative is worth continuing to track. DYOR

LINK-4.88%

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This week's CPI, I'm focused on core inflation — I can't just look at the headline number.
U.S. August PPI will be released on Thursday, September 10, and August CPI will be released on Friday, September 11, both at 20:30 Beijing time. If you trade U.S. stocks or crypto, make a note of these two evenings.
In July, overall CPI rose 0.1% month over month, while energy prices fell 1.5%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rebounded to 0.2% month over month from 0 in June. The overall reading was mild, but the underlying price pressures did not disappear along with it.
This time, I'll first see whether core month-over-month inflation keeps accelerating, then compare it with market expectations. PPI comes out one day earlier, so it can show changes on the production side, but you can't use it to directly predict CPI. For trades after the data is released, I'll combine U.S. Treasury yields and price action to judge the move, and I won't rush to chase the first spike or drop. DYOR

巴菲猜

PPI first, CPI as the finale: Don’t rush to chase or cut when going into this week

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