阿根战记

Bitcoin continues to fall—just a twitch away from the long/bulls’ lifeline at 76,000!

The market is waiting for a major crash!

Today daytime, global markets have been dropping across the board: gold down, Korean stocks down, Japanese stocks down, Hang Seng and China A-shares also down. It all comes down to how US stocks will perform tonight, doesn’t it?

Right now, the broader situation is the U.S. and Iran—there’s an all-out confrontation over control of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. The U.S. has also issued security warnings for its embassies in multiple Middle Eastern countries, evacuating relevant personnel. Looks like they’re going to escalate the standoff even further!

According to today’s CME data, the probability of the Fed hiking rates on September 17 has already climbed to 68%!

We also said yesterday: once Bitcoin breaks below $76,000, it would look ugly!

Now the wind is coming before the storm, and the whole scene is filled with tension!

Both sides of Iran and Israel cannot stop; if the escalation continues and Bitcoin dips toward 76,000 but can’t hold, this week will likely erase the gains made last month.

The current global financial crisis has triggered a worldwide plunge—it's just missing a spark: the ammunition depot has already been piled up enough!

This spark could be this year’s October IPO of Anthropic. How outrageous is Anthropic’s valuation?

In May 2026, its Series H private placement: $965 billion
Expected valuation at IPO: about $2 trillion or even higher (roughly equal to the total market cap of the crypto market)

This may drain the market of cash. Then, combined with the possibility that the Fed could raise rates, we could see a “Davis 4-kill”: stocks, bonds, FX, and AI.

The starting point of this U.S. tech frenzy is AI, and the final curtain call will also be AI.

So right now, cash is absolutely king!

Don’t go all-in! Don’t go all-in! Don’t go all-in!

When you open positions now, ask yourself one question: after a subsequent massive selloff, will you still have bullets?

After the storm, only those who survive have the right to talk about the future!

#比特币8月上涨23%跑赢黄金股市
August is usually a weak period for Bitcoin seasonality, but this August broke the spell!

However, in history, after August sees double-digit gains, September has typically followed with a pullback, while October often rebounds strongly!

The reasons for the rally were mentioned earlier too: a three-way resonance of macro policy, short-squeeze pressure, and institutional capital.

Right now, momentum is clearly weakening. The daily chart has been chopping at the top for about half a month, sitting at the end of a converging triangle. The only consolation is that volume hasn’t expanded much, so the main force hasn’t distributed aggressively.

But miners and big players such as MicroStrategy are still selling. Even the capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs gets absorbed here.

The current strong resistance zone for Bitcoin is 82,000–85,000. As long as there’s no breakout with volume, whatever rises next will likely fall back to where it came from!

The next key support is at $76,000. If it breaks, watch $72,000. If selling continues further, the bulls will be completely driven out, and $40,000 could be seen in September–October!

September will be eventful:
The Fed + the ECB + the Bank of England—three of the world’s major central banks all have rate-setting meetings;
The U.S. clarity bill, the UK FCA, and the EU MiCA—major developments across all three markets;

Buckle up and get ready for a roller coaster!

9月币圈“大逃杀”前瞻：监管双响炮+加息三重奏，比特币10万 OR 5万？

August still has 4 hours left before it’s over!

Bitcoin surged 24% in August, breaking the record for August gains.

Tomorrow marks the official start of September, and 2026 has already passed two-thirds.

In September, the world’s top three central banks will all hold policy meetings. The US, Europe, and the UK will also take regulatory actions:

1. September 4 at 20:30, the US August nonfarm payroll data
2. September 10 at 20:15, the European Central Bank interest rate decision
3. September 11 at 20:30, the US August CPI
4. September 15, the U.S. Senate procedural vote on CLARITY’s “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act”
5. September 17 at 2:00, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision
6. September 17 at 19:00, the Bank of England interest rate decision
7. September 30, the UK FCA will open the application channel for crypto company licenses, and the EU will solicit public feedback on revisions to the MiCA regulations

Fed Chair Waller went hawkish last week, and after Bitcoin crashed it rebounded again. September is destined to be anything but calm—either a crash or a rally, something has to give!

If Bitcoin can’t reach $100,000, then let it go to $50,000!

9月币圈“大逃杀”前瞻：监管双响炮+加息三重奏，比特币10万 OR 5万？

September this year is destined to be a turbulent autumn:

The world’s three major central banks—the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England—will all hold their interest-rate decision meetings in succession.

Before the Federal Reserve meeting, the Non-Farm Payrolls data and CPI data will be released one after another. As the time for the rate decision approaches, market sensitivity increases, and volatility will also rise.

On the regulatory front: the U.S. CLARITY Act undergoes a procedural vote in the Senate; the UK’s FCA opens an application channel for crypto-asset company licenses; and the EU’s MiCA regulation seeks public consultation on amendments. Regulators at the world’s three most important crypto markets are arriving one after another—will they bring flowers to the market, or swords?

A double regulatory whammy + a triple dose of rate hikes + the usual stream of economic data—September is destined to be a month of blood and thunder!

Bitcoin closes the monthly candle today! Currently up 24% to close out (Binance data)!

Even in a bull market, this kind of gain is top-tier. As a result, the market has shifted from deserted, cold silence straight into greedy anticipation of a bull-run continuation—greed and fear has peaked at 82, which is categorized as extreme greed.

Now the market’s voices are starting to split: bull-run continuation vs. bear-market dead-cat bounce, and both sides are insulting each other as idiots!

So how will September’s行情 (price action) play out next? Let’s first look at how BTC performed historically in September. As shown below:

From 2013 to 2025, in 13 years:
Bitcoin had 5 down months and 8 up months.
In September, the average return rate was about -4.02%.
Largest gain: 2024, +7.25%.
Largest drop: 2014, -18.59%.

Historically, September has long been called one of BTC’s weakest months. But over the past three years (2023, 2024, 2025), there has been consecutive upside, suggesting that the ETF era is changing the traditional “September curse.”

Bitcoin has already surged from over 57,000 to over 81,000—up nearly 40%. So will it jump straight to 100,000, or will it shake out again down to 50,000? It all depends on how the first half of September plays out!

PONS, from the mid-July low to now: it has already reached nearly a 100x-level increase! But its market cap is still around the top 200—there may still be room!

This is one of the hottest projects lately. With gains this big, the main drivers are the Robinhood Chain ecosystem narrative behind it + a top player in Launchpad + real trading revenue + buybacks and token burns.

In simple terms, it’s a Robinhood Chain version of Pump.fun.

So far, about 70% of the supply has already been circulated, with nearly 30% being burned. There’s basically no pressure from the kind of continuous unlock-and-dump that traditional VC tokens have.

If it had been born in a bull market, it would be a scorching project. But in this cold winter, it has already pumped so much—so for now, you can keep an eye on it. Maybe later it will turn into a golden dog!

#xrp现货etf创2026年最大周流入
If BTC can continue to stabilize at high levels, the market may enter a new phase:
BTC stabilizes—capital seeks higher yields—then strong altcoins rotate in sequence.

XRP is nearing a 100% gain, BNB is also up more than 20%, SOL is up 40%, TRUMP is up 170%......

After these popular coins finish running, will other altcoins follow?

Right now, the market isn’t “all altcoins rising together.” Instead, capital is becoming increasingly concentrated—this will likely become the norm in the crypto world going forward.

If BTC enters a period of stable consolidation, the biggest opportunity in the next phase of crypto may not be BTC continuing to surge, but rather the structural rotation of strong altcoins.

The opportunity window is about half a month—up until before the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17. You can look for coins that might skyrocket, but once you’ve made a good gain, take profit. The bear market is still here—no change in the bigger picture at all!

The core of what Fed Chair Powell said last night, and the most impactful meaning for market moves, is: stubborn inflation— the 2% target is unwavering, employment is strong, and there is a refusal to make an early commitment to rate cuts!

So the crypto market chose to bow and fall first: the market’s bets on the Sept 17 2:00 interest rate decision—toward a rate hike—jumped instantly from 35% to nearly 60%!

So next, US economic data before the 17th may matter even more, and its impact on market conditions may be greater than you’d expect. Before and after the data comes out, get ready to take a hit:

Sept 4 at 20:30, US Non-Farm Payrolls data;

Sept 11 at 20:30, US CPI data

After Federal Reserve Chair Powell finished his hawkish remarks, the market watched for a moment, then quickly plunged!
There are also two bad pieces of news:
1. Big brother Maji’s long position in ETH has started to go underwater, while BTC closed its shorts and then opened longs again. Big brother Maji just finished eating meat—now he’s about to be targeted and slaughtered by the main forces again?

2. A $800 million long position in Bitcoin at 76,000 was liquidated!

Next comes the push for time to squeeze longs

It’s a bear market!
First you need to understand this, and then open positions!
Every rise is an opportunity to short. Unless a financial crisis that could come from outside makes it possible—if there’s another deeper pullback, in the fourth quarter, to 38,000–45,000!

After Bitcoin and ETH have already risen and topped, they've been consolidating at the top for a week—why hasn't it dropped yet?
Mainly because the main players haven't finished distributing their holdings, and then the people who missed the move keep buying the dip every time it falls!
Now the greed index at 81 is basically from those sidelined people who are FOMO-ing in. As the early-spring temperatures warm back up, it draws out a whole bunch of new leeks poking their heads out—every one of them the broker’s dream long-term target!

$SNDK.US , I haven’t checked in for more than a week. Now it has fallen to the short-term target level that was mentioned earlier.

The medium-term target at 1320 looks very likely to be reached in the near term—possibly even a spike down to 1250!

It reached a high of $1827, but the resistance zone between $1836–$1850 was never even touched.

Remember this: whenever institutions go crazy shouting buy/sell orders, it’s because they’re trying to get you to take the bag.

No matter how fancy and breathtaking their pitch sounds, and how beautifully the data indicators look!

All financial markets are zero-sum games—if someone profits, someone else loses. If institutions don’t lure retail traders into the market, what would they cut?

Tonight at 10 p.m., Fed Chair Powell makes his debut speech at the Jackson Hole conference!

Markets will look for policy clues ahead of the September 16 FOMC meeting!

Say one thing “hawkish,” and BTC could fall back to 73,000; say one thing “dovish,” and 85,000 could be in sight!

The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 34%-42%. Everyone should fasten your seatbelts before the speech to prevent getting jostled up and down!

Sun Ge and Jing Tian’s meme coins are out—up 13,000%. Is this something Sun Ge himself issued? Are we taking back the money that was lost on Jing Tian?

Every Bitcoin bear market on the daily chart will feature several sudden mega rallies of 10%+!

A bear market is never a steady, one-way grind downward. It’s a turbulent downtrend structure of: drop → violent rebound → drop again → bottoming out. The big surge is precisely the most typical feature of a bear market.

From the perspective of how big players operate, surges in a bear market are also an important method for them to harvest retail traders.

Many retail traders have a very painful cycle memory:
1. In a bear market, prices bleed lower in a long, gloomy downtrend—you can’t stomach the losses, so you cut and exit;
2. Just after you sell, Bitcoin suddenly rockets with a brutal 10%–20% rallying bullish engulfing day. The community instantly boils over, with people spamming “the bull market is back!”
3. You’re afraid of missing out, so you panic-chase at the top. (Retail traders are currently in this stage.)
4. As it turns out, the rally only lasts a few days. The market quickly turns around, breaks down again, and makes a new lower low even below the prior one—trapping the retail traders who just chased higher.

This is the bear market’s most classic “harvest” loop. Big surges in a bear market are not random—they’re part of a recurring harvest script designed by large players, exploiting traders’ psychological weaknesses in bear markets, the derivatives leverage mechanism, and规律 of market sentiment.

In a bear market, retail traders’ emotions run extremely high, and the emotional premium for good-news rumors is enormous.

A surge also serves as the only effective tool to break the retail trader’s “do-nothing/lie-flat” mindset: Retail traders don’t fear a slow decline—but they’re extremely afraid of a rapid big rally that leaves them behind, “thrown off the bull’s train.”

So-called missing out feels even worse than losing money!