阿佛的财经指南

Time flies! The 45-day one-sided uptrend has come to an end. On April 8th, I wrote a detailed piece suggesting a big short around the 80K mark (prior low long strategy before 80K). Now, it's been validated. Looking ahead, I expect high short strategies until the end of July, likely from late May. The market has two groups—one went crazy short in April, and now they're all going wild long. I'm usually opposite to the mainstream market sentiment, and my win rate has been pretty solid. I haven't made any major mistakes in terms of trends and cycles.

Currently, BTC has broken down on the daily chart, and the downtrend is quite evident. I anticipate a major rebound around 76K; my big short outlook remains unchanged. The US stock market is now too high to lift crypto. Talks about Uncle Chuan's visit to China have nothing to do with crypto (I've been bearish recently), and people are still fixated on the Iran situation, which are all lagging trading thoughts. I remember writing an article in March asking why the US wants to strike Iran? Now, with the US stock market rallying for 40 days, these factors combined, take a look back at my previous article. Many think we're just drawing lines... Who said those who draw charts don't consider macroeconomics?

So why am I bearish? I've shared some thoughts before—potential interest rate hikes in Japan in June, the World Cup in July with Canada and Mexico, and potential stock market corrections are all factors to consider. Coupled with the chart, volume, and candlestick structure, it's all pointing bearish. At the end of April, I mentioned not seeing BTC above 83K, which still holds true, determined by volume and gaps.

Now, let's talk about ETH and SOL. These two are really on opposite ends; SOL is catching up, while ETH isn't. ETH at 2600 corresponds to BTC at 81K, but I've mentioned in my livestream that ETH not catching up is a concern. In a bear market, ETH behaves like this—why should it necessarily catch up?

ETH capped at 2480, SOL capped at 98, which aligns with bear market characteristics. There's still downward space for ETH, and I expect it to consolidate around 2150 before a potential upward move. We'll see about the timing.

I’m Afo, a professional trader.
Feel free to like, comment, share, and do the triple click.

Trading: if you do it well, the exchange will pay you; if you do it poorly, you’ll end up paying the exchange every day. In trading, trends rule. Trading psychology. And stop-loss dimensions (price stop-loss, time stop-loss, and logic stop-loss). Among them, logic stop-loss is the most critical. When market conditions and your logical projections don’t match, you must know how to turn your guns around—don’t fight the trend. Without a trading system, no matter how much you earn, you’ll eventually hand it back to the market.

Sun Ge asks AI: Do we give this 50 million or not?
AI: Yes.
Sun Ge: Give me an answer in two words.
AI: No.
I just installed Codex yesterday and plan to learn programming on my own.

The recent crypto market has made me hesitant and careful with my trading. Before July 15, every order I placed would bring at least a profit of over a hundred thousand U. It’s been almost a month now—every time I place an order, I might earn only ten or twenty thousand U. It’s exhausting and a huge strain on my heart; I literally can’t do this anymore. This trade—SanDisk long—was extremely cautious. Back in the day, with that position size, a single order would have made at least a million U in profit. Before SanDisk’s upswing, I also cut half the position around 1270. The AI narrative is still very strong. I hope that over the next month the U.S. stock market will pull back to give me a chance to get on board. I’ve already been eyeing some U.S. stocks.

On April 8, 2025, with BTC at 74,500 and the U.S. stock market in April 2025—so far, BTC is down 50%, and yet there’s still no sign of a top in the U.S. stocks🔝. The difference is just too big. Next, I’ll continue adjusting my position to trade U.S. stocks. Crypto can still rise later, but this capital utilization efficiency is too low. BTC 64,000, ETH 1,850—stalled for a month already. My guess is that over the next dozens of days, BTC and ETH will continue to trade in a range and stay volatile.

《Long Victory》 Author: To invest well, you need five abilities:
First: the ability to see through phenomena and grasp the essence of problems. People with this ability are rare. To invest, you must have the ability to capture the essence of a problem from among many complex phenomena, and to filter out noise—grasp the real trends.

Second: independent thinking ability.

Third: sufficient confidence.

Fourth: open-mindedness and humility; keep an open mindset.
Fifth: resilience.
For investors, resilience is extremely important—you have to be able to withstand blows, not be killed or knocked down.

When others are in despair, you must always have confidence and strength for the future. This confidence and faith are not about blind optimism; it means you firmly believe that this thing’s development has cycles.
No matter how long the night is, it will eventually come when the sun rises.
No matter how cold the winter is, it will eventually come when spring brings warm flowers.

Why is resilience especially important for most investors, especially those who lack resilience to invest?
Because all the knowledge and skills we gain in investing are certainly obtained through reflecting on difficulties and failures. You can’t acquire knowledge and rewards through success alone. After one failure, and then a second, you can still continue to love this industry; you can still have confidence and faith in your future, and you can keep summarizing methodologies.

Trading stocks on-chain in the US—does this count as inviting wolves in?
You’ve achieved success in US stocks, but you’ve sacrificed yourself—it's been a huge decline.
Only a little bit of liquidity remains, and it all got siphoned off by US stocks.

There are also some brothers and sisters who still know how to be grateful.
Lately there hasn’t been much going on, so I won’t share anymore. Crypto is like 💩.

Recently I haven’t explained much either. Human nature is just like that—like some people using ta1000U to trade up to 40,000U. Lately the market hasn’t been good; there have been a few-thousand in drawdowns. Then in all the big groups, people have been all kinds of defamatory talk. I feel wronged inside, but I can’t be bothered to explain anymore. For example, taking 10,000U and trading it up to 300,000U makes me full of gratitude. With my current mindset, I can’t really affect things either. After all, I haven’t shared much going forward. Everything in the world is just a matter of timing and coincidences—go with the flow. Short-term “masters” make money every day, but in reality, what’s going on? For those who keep caring about us every day—thank you. We can’t lose.

Trade with kindness; the heart is the essence.

Quantum Holography: In three-dimensional space, all information can be fully encoded on the lower-dimensional boundary surface. You are not physical flesh and blood—you are a complete hologram projected out of something else.

Your senses, memories, emotions, pain and joy are all information that is projected; there is no truly “material essence.”

The mountains and rivers you can see, other people, and even your own body are all illusions woven out of light.

Your thoughts, desires, and fixations are data streams produced by the holographic system at work. The “self” you think you are is only a light spot in the projection that is observing the projection.

Even though it’s a holographic projection, the experience is real. Even if the carrier is light, the happiness, sorrow, love and hate, and thoughts you feel are entirely real to this projection of you.

The world is just a massive holographic screen, and you are a character on that screen who is truly alive.

Just like people in a movie: the characters themselves don’t know they are images, but their joys and sorrows are unimaginably real to them.

Another way to put it:
If the world is a holographic projection, then what are “you”?
You are not an object that is projected. You are the consciousness that watches the projection. The projection is in flux, all things arise and pass away—while the very awareness that is “you” is not contained within the projection itself.

The point is not the transaction; it’s the brilliant process (if the process is right, the outcome will naturally not be off). The process forms the base tone of a person’s life. Life is not the goal—the process is everything.

I swear—I posted at noon about this stretch of market needing to be prepared for a long fight, that there isn’t much trading opportunity… but how did the comment section blow it up like that?

Encryption is like a pile of 💩💩💩……shit

Next, the investment logic in the B-circle trading market has shifted. US stocks are being put on-chain, and trades are coordinated in tandem with Bitcoin and US stocks. By looking at crypto with a ten-year investment mindset, you can face this stretch of choppy, shitty market conditions more calmly—so I’m more at ease now.

The arrival of the AI era has already shifted from “building recognition” to “building awareness.” Awareness is a state reached by internalizing knowledge and cognition—turning the system-two mode into system-one. It’s going from brain-burning effort to intuitive awareness. Because when we compete by knowledge, humans definitely can’t outdo AI and Doubao. So the future world will definitely not be about competing on knowledge. It will be about people’s inner tension and awakened awareness. And the future of trading will definitely not look like it does today.

The ceiling of trading is mathematics—there is no road that is easy.

Everyone tries, with the strength they have, to bring a faint light into this world—so that the world becomes a better place. This is the meaning of life (not staring at those small, trivial sums; such a life is far too shallow). Your one hundred U might be someone else’s everything. Life is full of hardships; the world is not easy in any way. Do more good deeds. I remember that at the end of June, I was live-streaming with many fellow friends. We held a 65100 empty order and took profit at 58700. In the live stream, I played some Buddhist chants. Some of the friends who listened said they were in tears. Why did they cry? What is the meaning of doing this? Can it help you become a better, more vibrant, living person?

To put it simply, let me talk about the market outlook for the next two months. The reason I shorted near 1850 a few days ago (I got stopped out two days ago) is that ETH’s overall monthly chart structure still suggests I want to see another leg down. Broadly, it’s still the 1400–1500 range. As for the current high-level consolidation, the strategy is basically short-term trades with tight stop losses to participate. Here, I’m not going lower, so I’ll keep waiting for an opportunity. It’s like what I said a few days ago: I wasn’t too willing to take a large position long near 1800. Here, there’s no way to take a trend trade, so I’ve been resting and waiting. What the market is saying now is: if it rises, think it’s bullish; if it falls, think it will go even lower. At 1500, we’ll look at 800; at 1900, we’ll look at 2600. Market sentiment is just like that.

As you go with the flow, there is no road that’s easy. What you need to do is make yourself and what you’re doing become one—so you can achieve yourself, become a trader, become who you are. I mentioned in my live stream earlier the experience from my previous startup, so there is no easy path. Let what you’re doing itself penetrate your body, and then you can find yourself.

The overall profit has recently drawn down by about 14%, meaning I lost ✘✘✘ tens of thousands overnight. But it doesn’t affect the total profit. Trading is like this: if you want to make money, you have to accept that you can also lose money. A few days ago, BTC around 64,000 was ranging. Long positions taken from around July 1 until about July 12. For Big Pie, it was up and down with 3,000-point “needles” poking through in both directions—three times. Every day had millions in fluctuations, which is an extreme test of a trader’s mindset.

We trade trend positions. Here there’s no risk-reward ratio and no large trading range. We generally participate very rarely. In a ranging market, every time there’s a pullback, there is a drawdown. Use a small position to test, stop loss in time. The way of trading—when your capital reaches a certain size, it’s no longer something that can be solved by technique alone. You need to move up to the next level: first-level technique, second-level the way (principles), and third-level mindset. You can see yourself in which level. Which level are you in? Let’s encourage each other.

Let me briefly talk about the market: BTC’s current support is 65,500, and ETH’s support is around 1,900. Here, the 4-hour chart shows a dead cross leading to a pullback, but the 1-hour and 2-hour charts show a bottom divergence. The 3-day K-line golden cross hasn’t finished yet. ETH is even stronger; 2,200 is a strong resistance. For the next short setup, you need the short side to have the dead cross in confluence with the bullish side—only then can you position. For scalping, look for long/short opportunities, and keep knocking the entries back into the pullback; overall, nothing is affected.