Serein1

$SKHYNIX
Foreign investors keep selling off Hynix and Samsung! And I keep buying the dip! I'm such a sucker!

$KORU Korean index has fallen to a new all-time low! If it falls any further, I’ll have to go to Korea and try bungee jumping. $KORUB

Williams revealed two important points:

1️⃣ There may be only one final rate hike left in 2026.

The Fed’s current policy rate is 3.75%–4.00%. Williams thinks another increase may be needed this year, but he hasn’t committed to one.

2️⃣ No more rate hikes in 2027.

He believes inflationary pressures from factors such as tariffs and energy prices are likely to ease, and that the U.S. economy isn’t overheating across the board.

It feels like the Fed may be nearing the end of this rate-hiking cycle. But when it comes to crypto, these are the three things I’m focusing on:

① The U.S. 10-year real yield
A sustained decline is usually more favorable for BTC and ETH.

② Flows into BTC and ETH ETFs
If they return to net inflows for several consecutive days, that would signal improving institutional demand.

③ The ETH/BTC exchange rate
If BTC holds steady while ETH/BTC begins to recover consistently, it could signal that risk appetite is returning to the market.

I’ll be more cautious with some highly volatile assets, especially avoiding adding leverage prematurely just because the rate-hiking cycle is supposedly over. $BTC

$ETH Machi Big Brother has unlimited ammo! After getting liquidated, he opened another ETH long position, with a liquidation price of 2324!

The bear market is over. The Wolfy Wave Index has just officially hit zero.

The corresponding Bitcoin block height is 971,250.

Next comes a bull market phase lasting 3 years.

This bull market phase is expected to end around 2029/09/23. This date is not exact; it is estimated based on Bitcoin’s recent block generation rate, so the actual date could vary by a few days.

Entering a bull market phase doesn’t mean prices will skyrocket immediately. The transition from bear to bull has always been a lengthy process. Looking back at this phase in the previous two cycles, even after entering a bull market, the market may still spend several months forming a bottom.

In the long term, this is a relatively low point, but not necessarily the absolute bottom.

I suggest starting a dollar-cost averaging plan now and continuing it for six months.

View the Wolfy Wave Index in real time: https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/$BTC

BTC Short Plan: The Levels I’m Watching

🔴 Short $BTC : Price is expected to fall
Bias: Short · Slightly bearish

Entry: 81191.75 – 81368.05
TP1: 79811.59 (-1.8%)
TP2: 78832.71 (-3.0%)
TP3: 77364.40 (-4.8%)
Stop-loss: 83237.65 (+2.4%)
Plan: Enter only within the range. Close half the position at TP1, then move the stop-loss to the entry price.
Note: This is a countertrend strategy backed by only 5 signals. Reduce your position size and use a strict stop-loss.

Why short? 5 of 12 signals support it, while 1 opposes it.
• 1-hour trend is down (price is below EMA50 and EMA200)
• Sellers are dominating price action (15-minute ADX is 34.7)
• BTC is falling, with a correlation of 1.00
Risk: Daily trend is up (price is above EMA50 and EMA200)

In simple terms:
The daily trend is bullish, and 5 of 12 signals align with the short direction. The plan is to trade within the 81191.75 – 81368.05 range, close portions at 79811.59 and 78832.71, and patiently wait for the price to reach 77364.40. If the price breaks above 83237.65, this view is wrong and the stop-loss will be triggered. This trade goes against the higher-timeframe trend, so please reduce your position size.

Will BTC hit 79811.59 first, or trigger the stop-loss first?

⚠️ For personal market analysis only. NFA—please manage risk and do your own research. $BTC

Is $SKHYNIX storage going to cool down? Hynix has fallen below 1000!

$SOXL.ETF
3x Semiconductor ETF: Around 100 is a key support level. Last month, it rebounded from 99 to 169 at one point.

Looks like I’m not the only one buying the dip in the Korean index! $KORU

U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, above market expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in October climbed to 43.7%—when news like this breaks, I look at large orders first, then the price.
It’s bearish, but one piece of news isn’t enough to weaken the market. Futures open interest and spot buying should be viewed separately: rallies driven by spot demand are more stable.
$BTC , 24h -1.99%. $BTC

Things have changed again.
Fitch: Inflation data is a red-light warning for the Fed; a rate hike at the end of the month is now under discussion.
Honestly, let's make a note of it for now. No need to rush into action.
$BTC now 82551.39
What do you all think about this?

#BTC

Evernorth partners with Ripple, multiple exchanges, and BitGo to deploy $648 million in XRP…
I usually don't rush to act on news like this. The headline sounds pretty alarming, but I need to read the original article first.
$XRP is now at 1.3805, up 1.48% over 24 hours.
Which number do you pay more attention to?

$SOL Another big order.
Closed a long position of 3.29 million, execution price 106.7112.
You can see what the address is doing, but no one knows the reason behind it.
It’s good to keep an eye on things, but you still have to trade at your own pace.

#SOL

$ARC Funding rate: -0.0605%.
Shorts are paying, and the trade is getting a bit crowded.
If it can't hold, it's still just sentiment.

#ARC

50 million USDC was burned on Ethereum.
Sure enough, a burn could mean an institution redeemed it for dollars, or it could simply have been moved to another chain. Whether stablecoins are minted or burned, the issuer is basically adjusting the total supply. I'm keeping an eye on $BTC too. I'll say more if anything comes of it.

#BTC

Let’s talk about the market.
South Korea plans to announce detailed cryptocurrency tax rules in November, with a maximum tax rate of 22% taking effect in 2027.
News is news; whether prices react is another matter.
I also took a quick look at $BTC : up 1.07% over 24 hours.

#BTC

USDC minted 50 million on Ethereum.
I usually look at weekly changes in the total stablecoin supply; a single day's data doesn't tell you much.
I also took a quick look at $BTC —it’s at 83362 right now.

#BTC

Alpha token on BSC $MAT , up 49.37% in 24 hours, now at 0.08.
If you missed it, you missed it. This isn't the only opportunity. Come back when you have something to show for it.

#MAT

Another big trade just showed up on the tape. Someone closed a long position worth 18.32 million at $BTC .
I’ll keep this in mind and revisit it if anything changes. Don’t go all in. If it can’t hold, it’s still just emotion.