無名先生
262 Posts
無名先生
Cryptocurrency、金融分析師、信息搬運工 、合作DM 、主攻領域、#Airdrops
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🚨 Silver is stepping into the same trap that ruined everyone in 2011.
Almost nobody sees what’s about to happen.
2011:
Silver surged from $18 to $49. Everyone was bullish. “Silver has only just begun.” “There is a massive shortage.” “$100 silver is inevitable.”
Then the trap shut.
$49 → $30, within days. Then → $15.
Now look at 2026:
Gold has already exploded higher. Silver follows. Suddenly, everyone is repeating the same story again: “Silver is still undervalued.” “It has to catch up to gold.” “The real rally hasn’t started yet.”
I’ve seen this script before. This is what people were saying around $40 in 2011.
What they ignore is:
Silver doesn’t need gold to break first. It only needs leverage to become too crowded. When the unwind starts, silver is brutal—small market, thin liquidity, massive leverage.
Almost nobody sees what’s about to happen.
2011:
Silver surged from $18 to $49. Everyone was bullish. “Silver has only just begun.” “There is a massive shortage.” “$100 silver is inevitable.”
Then the trap shut.
$49 → $30, within days. Then → $15.
Now look at 2026:
Gold has already exploded higher. Silver follows. Suddenly, everyone is repeating the same story again: “Silver is still undervalued.” “It has to catch up to gold.” “The real rally hasn’t started yet.”
I’ve seen this script before. This is what people were saying around $40 in 2011.
What they ignore is:
Silver doesn’t need gold to break first. It only needs leverage to become too crowded. When the unwind starts, silver is brutal—small market, thin liquidity, massive leverage.
Whale long positions peaked at a BTC resistance level.
Spot demand has not matched.
Read “Trigger Happy” for the full analysis.
Spot demand has not matched.
Read “Trigger Happy” for the full analysis.
Volatility pricing: the cheapest it’s been in years.
But buyers still aren’t profitable.
Bitcoin’s volatility is lower than the option costs.
But buyers still aren’t profitable.
Bitcoin’s volatility is lower than the option costs.
$BTC plan will remain unchanged.
In the first two weeks of this month, I already laid out the plan to short at the top.
Don't ask me about going long—I have absolutely no plans to go long.
Now I'm just calmly sipping my coffee, waiting for the profits from each previous short plan to come in.
P.S. I will only update trading-related information. If you came here because of X, please unfollow.
Thank you.
In the first two weeks of this month, I already laid out the plan to short at the top.
Don't ask me about going long—I have absolutely no plans to go long.
Now I'm just calmly sipping my coffee, waiting for the profits from each previous short plan to come in.
P.S. I will only update trading-related information. If you came here because of X, please unfollow.
Thank you.
Why will Bitcoin in 2026 be at $63,000... and soon reach $200,000?
Because breaking above $100,000 was the biggest “turnover” in Bitcoin’s history. And almost everyone has it backwards.
Bitcoin has stayed in the six-figure range for 340 days. The price hardly moved—but huge changes happened on-chain.
Over the year, long-term holders’ “coin days destroyed” reached 5.79 billion days—higher than in 2017 and 58% higher than in 2021.
What it means is this: OGs with extremely low costs are selling their coins to new buyers who are willing to take the position at $100,000. This isn’t just ordinary turnover—it’s a full capital reset across the entire network.
Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its ATH, but the network’s “realized price” (the overall cost basis of holdings) has barely retraced, remaining as high as $52,645. And the price—only moved from $101,000 down to $63,000.
Today’s $63,000 looks like “a big drop”—but if you understand who’s holding, the story is completely different.
Because breaking above $100,000 was the biggest “turnover” in Bitcoin’s history. And almost everyone has it backwards.
Bitcoin has stayed in the six-figure range for 340 days. The price hardly moved—but huge changes happened on-chain.
Over the year, long-term holders’ “coin days destroyed” reached 5.79 billion days—higher than in 2017 and 58% higher than in 2021.
What it means is this: OGs with extremely low costs are selling their coins to new buyers who are willing to take the position at $100,000. This isn’t just ordinary turnover—it’s a full capital reset across the entire network.
Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its ATH, but the network’s “realized price” (the overall cost basis of holdings) has barely retraced, remaining as high as $52,645. And the price—only moved from $101,000 down to $63,000.
Today’s $63,000 looks like “a big drop”—but if you understand who’s holding, the story is completely different.
🚨 I won’t short $BTC here.
We’re still in an uptrend channel—the real direction is still upward.
If $BTC reaches the main trendline and is confirmed rejected—that’s the point where I would consider shorting, with a target of a 20%+ drop.
Until then, I’m just observing.
We’re still in an uptrend channel—the real direction is still upward.
If $BTC reaches the main trendline and is confirmed rejected—that’s the point where I would consider shorting, with a target of a 20%+ drop.
Until then, I’m just observing.
See translation
2011: $30 → 未来货币
2012: $5 → 死了
2013: $1,330 → 未来货币
2015: $200 → 死了
2017: $19,000 → 未来货币
2018: $3,300 → 死了
2021: $69,000 → 未来货币
2022: $16,000 → 死了
2025: $126,000 → 未来货币
2026: $60,000 → 死了
同样的剧本，不同的价格。
2012: $5 → 死了
2013: $1,330 → 未来货币
2015: $200 → 死了
2017: $19,000 → 未来货币
2018: $3,300 → 死了
2021: $69,000 → 未来货币
2022: $16,000 → 死了
2025: $126,000 → 未来货币
2026: $60,000 → 死了
同样的剧本，不同的价格。
#Bitcoin $70K or $57.8K?
If BTC can hold above the Tenkan (red line), then the next target is $70K at the Kijun (blue line).
If it can’t hold, the likelihood of a pullback to the year-to-date low at $57.8K increases.
If BTC can hold above the Tenkan (red line), then the next target is $70K at the Kijun (blue line).
If it can’t hold, the likelihood of a pullback to the year-to-date low at $57.8K increases.
October 2023: SOL $20 → RSI bullish divergence → rises to $120.
December 2024: SOL $80 → RSI bullish divergence → rises to $210.
August 2026: SOL $130 → RSI bullish divergence → ?
Same pattern, different price.
December 2024: SOL $80 → RSI bullish divergence → rises to $210.
August 2026: SOL $130 → RSI bullish divergence → ?
Same pattern, different price.
August–November 2018: BTC trades sideways in the $6,000–$6,500 range for 3 months, then falls to $3,200.
August–November 2022: BTC trades sideways in the $20,000–$25,000 range for 3 months, then falls to $15,500.
August 2026: BTC trades sideways in the $62,000–$65,000 range?
After this grueling period, it may be the final drop.
August–November 2022: BTC trades sideways in the $20,000–$25,000 range for 3 months, then falls to $15,500.
August 2026: BTC trades sideways in the $62,000–$65,000 range?
After this grueling period, it may be the final drop.
The Bitcoin bear market has already passed 86%.
Based on historical data:
Average bear market length: 364 days
Elapsed: about 313 days
Remaining: about 51 days
Bottom window: October 2026.
The remaining progress is the hardest part to get through.
Based on historical data:
Average bear market length: 364 days
Elapsed: about 313 days
Remaining: about 51 days
Bottom window: October 2026.
The remaining progress is the hardest part to get through.
🚨 The man who predicted the 2008 crash, Michael Burry, opened a short on $NBIS just 3 days ago!
Since he opened the position, Nebius has surged more than 30%.
He also added to his shorts on MU and MU and ORCL.
Will he be right again like in 2008?
Since he opened the position, Nebius has surged more than 30%.
He also added to his shorts on MU and MU and ORCL.
Will he be right again like in 2008?
🚨 If this happens, Monday could be a bloodbath.
Warning: Tomorrow could be the worst day of 2026!!
Japan has just hit the panic button, and almost nobody understands what that means.
→ Bond losses exceed ¥15.1 trillion
→ Japan government bond yields surge to record highs
To make up for the losses, the Bank of Japan is massively selling U.S. Treasuries. If you hold any assets, read this twice.
Because the biggest carry trade in history is about to be unwound.
For decades, Japan has kept interest rates near zero. That makes the yen the cheapest currency in the world. Investors borrow trillions of yen at almost no cost, then pour it into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, and global cryptocurrencies.
That deal is the underlying infrastructure supporting global asset prices. And now it’s cracking.
Japan is being overwhelmed by debt, an aging population, and massive pension obligations. So policymakers want this money to flow back into Japan at any cost.
Warning: Tomorrow could be the worst day of 2026!!
Japan has just hit the panic button, and almost nobody understands what that means.
→ Bond losses exceed ¥15.1 trillion
→ Japan government bond yields surge to record highs
To make up for the losses, the Bank of Japan is massively selling U.S. Treasuries. If you hold any assets, read this twice.
Because the biggest carry trade in history is about to be unwound.
For decades, Japan has kept interest rates near zero. That makes the yen the cheapest currency in the world. Investors borrow trillions of yen at almost no cost, then pour it into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, and global cryptocurrencies.
That deal is the underlying infrastructure supporting global asset prices. And now it’s cracking.
Japan is being overwhelmed by debt, an aging population, and massive pension obligations. So policymakers want this money to flow back into Japan at any cost.
🚨 Warning: Bitcoin has just been rejected again at $65K.
The next wave of downside will be extremely brutal.
$65K → $55K → $48K → $32K
The real liquidation will come when Bitcoin enters the $30K–$40K range.
I publicly called the bottom at $17K in 2022.
Then I publicly called the top at $126K in 2025.
The next major call will be released here first.
Follow, open the show.
The next wave of downside will be extremely brutal.
$65K → $55K → $48K → $32K
The real liquidation will come when Bitcoin enters the $30K–$40K range.
I publicly called the bottom at $17K in 2022.
Then I publicly called the top at $126K in 2025.
The next major call will be released here first.
Follow, open the show.
$ETH update
My local take on #ETH:
So far, everything is going according to plan:
We broke out of the wedge, and now we’re backtesting (completed)
Sweep liquidity at $1,804 (loading?)
First long zone: $1,720/$1,800
Second long zone: $1,744/$1,680
Conservative target: $2,000
If $BTC hits $70K/72K, then $72K, ETH target $2,100/$2,200
Reminder: I said the probability of reaching the second zone is very low—we may not even reach the first long zone.
ETH looks a lot stronger than BTC, so if you bought #ETH when my target was $1,950/$2,000 on June 30—nice work.
I can’t give you an overly risky long entry, so I’ve marked two long zones. We still might reach these levels.
Within the next 30–90 days, I expect the final adjustment to begin.
If anything changes, I’ll let everyone know! DYOR.
Reminder: I warned you before the 82K bull trap, the summer drop, the 82K bull trap, the summer drop, and the SPCX drop occurred.
My next call will be the biggest one in this cycle.
Turn on notifications. Most people will look after I do.
My local take on #ETH:
So far, everything is going according to plan:
We broke out of the wedge, and now we’re backtesting (completed)
Sweep liquidity at $1,804 (loading?)
First long zone: $1,720/$1,800
Second long zone: $1,744/$1,680
Conservative target: $2,000
If $BTC hits $70K/72K, then $72K, ETH target $2,100/$2,200
Reminder: I said the probability of reaching the second zone is very low—we may not even reach the first long zone.
ETH looks a lot stronger than BTC, so if you bought #ETH when my target was $1,950/$2,000 on June 30—nice work.
I can’t give you an overly risky long entry, so I’ve marked two long zones. We still might reach these levels.
Within the next 30–90 days, I expect the final adjustment to begin.
If anything changes, I’ll let everyone know! DYOR.
Reminder: I warned you before the 82K bull trap, the summer drop, the 82K bull trap, the summer drop, and the SPCX drop occurred.
My next call will be the biggest one in this cycle.
Turn on notifications. Most people will look after I do.
🚨 Something is off with Bitcoin right now.
Saylor is selling again.
Miners dumped 23,000 BTC.
The CLARITY bill has been delayed.
ETF outflows just set a new record.
And Bitcoin is barely moving.
Read that again.
Any one of these headlines should make $BTC crash straight through the floor.
But the market is absorbing everything.
This is the first signal in months that makes me question my bearish stance.
But I haven't flipped to bullish yet.
I still believe the final leg of violent downside is the more likely path.
Saylor is selling again.
Miners dumped 23,000 BTC.
The CLARITY bill has been delayed.
ETF outflows just set a new record.
And Bitcoin is barely moving.
Read that again.
Any one of these headlines should make $BTC crash straight through the floor.
But the market is absorbing everything.
This is the first signal in months that makes me question my bearish stance.
But I haven't flipped to bullish yet.
I still believe the final leg of violent downside is the more likely path.
🚨 Next week could be a decisive one for the markets!
Monday → 🇯🇵 Japan Q2 GDP
Tuesday → 🇺🇸 US Industrial Production
Wednesday → 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Tuesday to Thursday → 🏬 Major US retail earnings
Friday → 🇯🇵 Japan CPI + 🇺🇸 US PMI
All week → 🇮🇷 Uncertainty around Iran ceasefire
Five days. Five major market catalysts.
Monday → 🇯🇵 Japan Q2 GDP
Tuesday → 🇺🇸 US Industrial Production
Wednesday → 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Tuesday to Thursday → 🏬 Major US retail earnings
Friday → 🇯🇵 Japan CPI + 🇺🇸 US PMI
All week → 🇮🇷 Uncertainty around Iran ceasefire
Five days. Five major market catalysts.
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