CryptoQuant Quicktake

The current market phase can be characterized as a post-rebound adjustment within a broader weak trend. At this stage, downside pressure remains conditionally dominant, though not decisive.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, a move that had already been largely priced in. Consequently, the decision did not lead to sustained yen appreciation. Governor Ueda’s remarks emphasized uncertainty around future rate hikes, reinforcing expectations of a cautious tightening path. This macro environment is reflected in Bitcoin’s leverage and regional flow structure.

The Estimated Leverage Ratio indicates a clear decline during the recent downturn, suggesting that excessive speculative positioning has already been unwound. Importantly, leverage has not rebuilt despite ongoing price fluctuations, implying that yen-funded carry trade–driven risk-taking remains contained rather than expanding.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index has recovered from deeply negative levels but has not established a stable move into positive territory. This suggests that strong U.S.-led spot demand is still absent. At the same time, the moderation in negative readings indicates that selling pressure is easing rather than intensifying. Despite continued yen weakness, the lack of sustained spot buying implies that the current recovery does not yet reflect a structural uptrend.

A shift in this assessment would require the Coinbase Premium Index to stabilize in positive territory while prices rise without a renewed increase in leverage. Such a pattern would point to demand-driven accumulation.

At present, the base scenario remains a fragile recovery amid ongoing supply–demand adjustment.

However, if persistent spot inflows emerge, this view would need to be reassessed.

（Analysis Report No.154）

XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Recently, $ETH has repeatedly touched the realized price of the accumulation address. This indicates that it has reached the average price of whales.

Nevertheless, the recent $ETH inflow to accumulation address shows further increases.

Although whale's profits have decrease zero level, they are accelerating their accumualtion.

If they expected a bear market, they would sell their holdings. However, they are buying, they expected a bull market.

Written by CW8900

📰 Daily Market Update

clear shift in short-term dynamics, driven by dual short liquidation events on Bitcoin derivatives, alongside a noticeable slowdown in USDT transfer activity across both TRON and Ethereum networks.

📊 BTC: Binance Liquidation Delta – What Happened?

💥 The chart shows two consecutive short liquidation events targeting late sellers on Bitcoin above the 87.7k level.

💥 Each liquidation wave exceeded $300M, with total short liquidations surpassing $600M

💥 The largest event wiped out around $533M in short positions above ~93.5k

⚠️ Short Squeeze Explained (Quick & Simple)

In derivatives markets, short liquidations occur when:

📉 Too many traders bet on downside

📈 Price moves higher against over-leveraged short positions

≠ Margin requirements are breached

* Positions are forcibly closed by the exchange through market buy orders

* These liquidations converted into aggressive market buy orders, pushing price even higher

📊 [USDT] Transfer Volume Daily Tron / Ethereum

The second chart compares daily USDT transfer volumes on two major networks:

🟢 TRON (TRC20) – Green

🔵 Ethereum (ERC20) – Blue

Key observations:

📆 On November 10, USDT transfers peaked:

💸 $13B on TRON

💸 $35B on Ethereum (cycle high)

📉 Since then, volumes declined steadily

📆 By December 15:

💸TRON dropped to around $1.7B

💸Ethereum fell to roughly $3.7B

🧠 Final Takeaway

Forced short liquidations often turn into short-term resistance zones.

At the same time, the noticeable drop in daily USDT transfer activity hints at fading liquidity momentum, which could limit upside continuation in the near term.

Tracking liquidation clusters and stablecoin flow trends remains essential to anticipate short-term market reactions and potential shifts in trader sentiment.

Written by Amr Taha

While the crypto market remains highly volatile, recent data from Spot Ethereum ETFs presents a concerning outlook for the second-largest cryptocurrency. Significant capital outflows from institutional funds during the week starting December 15, 2025, have added notable selling pressure to Ethereum’s price action.

1. Institutional Capital Flight

According to the available data for the week beginning December 15, 2025, Ethereum ETFs experienced substantial net outflows. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) led this bearish trend, recording a massive outflow of approximately $467 million. Other major funds also saw notable capital exits, with Fidelity (FETH) reporting outflows of around $35 million and Grayscale (ETHE) losing roughly $49 million.

In total, weekly outflows exceeded $600 million, signaling a sharp reduction in institutional risk appetite for Ethereum at current price levels, which are hovering around $2,886.

2. Market Impact

This sustained negative netflow at the very start of the weekly candle significantly weakens buy-side liquidity. When institutional players begin the week by reducing exposure, Ethereum’s ability to defend key support levels diminishes considerably. These ETF flows are consistent with broader weakness across the altcoin market and may act as a catalyst for further downside pressure.

Conclusion

The clear reluctance of institutions to accumulate Ethereum at current prices—most notably reflected in heavy outflows from BlackRock’s ETF—serves as a serious warning signal for traders. Until ETF flows stabilize and turn positive, Ethereum is likely to remain under pressure, with an elevated probability of revisiting lower support levels.

Written by CryptoOnchain

In 2025, Bitcoin alternated between euphoria and correction, with whales, miners, and exchanges setting the pace. As December draws to a close, on-chain data reveals a market that, at first glance, appears to be consolidating. Yet beneath this short-term stability, several indicators expose clear signs of pre-distribution, consistent with the broader bear market context.

INDICATORS

◾Exchanges → Falling reserves (2.76M) reduce structural selling pressure. Exchange Inflows (26.2K) and Exchange Outflows (24.6K) show less aggressive accumulation. Binary CDD (0.42) reinforces the retention of long-term holders, while CDD [60MA] (27.6M) highlights that older coins are being distributed.

◾Miners → Miner Reserves (1.80M) show a slight reduction compared to historical levels, signaling that miners are continuously releasing BTC into the market, characterizing a long-term structural trend of distribution. On the other hand, Miner Outflows (7K) remain low, and the MPI (-0.45), calculated as the ratio between current outflows and the 365-day average, points to short-term accumulation. This combination reveals a divergence: in the immediate term, miners are accumulating and easing selling pressure; however, over the longer horizon, the persistent decline in reserves confirms structural distribution.

◾Whales → The BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio – All Exchanges (30D) is elevated (0.46), showing increased activity and signaling the risk of concentrated selling. CDD [60MA] (27.6M) confirms that older coins are being moved and distributed. The Bitcoin: Unrealized Profit – New Whales vs Old Whales indicator shows new whales at a loss (-18B) and older whales profiting (+147B), with MVRV (1.51) reinforcing profit-taking. Meanwhile, Bitcoin: Total Whale Holdings and Monthly % Change shows a decline (-7.89%), signaling heavy profit-taking and preparation for a new distribution phase.

CONCLUSION

Bear market confirmed: consolidation is superficial, fundamentals reveal distribution.

Written by GugaOnChain

Recent Bitcoin price action has been volatile, with market sentiment turning increasingly unstable. However, when we look beyond price and examine on-chain data—specifically Accumulation vs. Distribution by cohort (60D) alongside the Accumulation Trend Score—a very different picture emerges. The key focus is on the so-called “shark” cohorts: addresses holding 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC.

Even as Bitcoin has corrected from its recent highs, these cohorts have not shifted into clear distribution. Instead, their activity remains around the zero line or slightly positive, indicating continued holding and gradual accumulation rather than aggressive selling. In contrast, smaller holders—particularly those with less than 1 BTC—show more pronounced distribution, reflecting uncertainty and capitulation. The divergence in behavior between cohorts is becoming increasingly clear.

The Accumulation Trend Score reinforces this view. While the broader market is not in a uniform accumulation phase, the shark cohorts show intermittent but persistent improvements in their scores. This suggests a repeated pattern of “buying on weakness,” driven not by headlines or short-term narratives, but by capital flows and supply–demand dynamics.

Why are sharks staying calm? Two main explanations stand out. First, they may be positioning ahead of medium-term demand drivers, including ETF-related flows and broader macro liquidity cycles. Second, they may interpret the current correction not as a trend reversal, but as a time-based consolidation within a larger structure.

When markets become noisy and volatile, stronger hands tend to accumulate quietly. The current on-chain data points to exactly that kind of phase—where price may wobble, but conviction beneath the surface continues to build.

（Analysis Report No.153）

XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

📰 Daily Market Update – Binance Derivatives Insight & On-Chain

📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / Open Interest (24H)

Quick refresher — CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) tracks the net difference between:

🟢 Buy volume (executed at ask)

🔴 Sell volume (executed at bid)

It helps identify whether buyers or sellers are in control, and is often used to spot divergence between price action and real market pressure.

Here’s what the chart shows:

* The chart shows a sharp surge in ETH CVD on Binance, now exceeding $200 million.

* This rise in CVD appears largely independent from Open Interest changes, especially since the beginning of December.

* This behavior usually suggests that market buys are dominating, not just leverage expansion.

🔍 Fluctuations in Open Interest indicate that:

* Newly opened positions are mostly long positions

* Closed positions are largely sell closures, either manual exits or forced liquidations.

In simple terms, buyers are clearly in control, and sellers are being absorbed.

📊 Whales Screener – BTC, ETH, Stablecoin Netflows

The Whales Screener tracks real-time deposits and withdrawals of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Stablecoins from over 100 actively monitored whale wallets — spot market only.

* The majority of inflows to spot exchanges are dominated by BTC and ETH, not stablecoins.

* Deposit activity for both Bitcoin and Ethereum increased noticeably starting from December 15.

* December 17 & 18 recorded the largest BTC deposit activity, reaching nearly $500 million per day.

* Spot inflows often precede profit-taking or distribution

🧠 Final Takeaway

Tracking retail behavior in Binance derivatives alongside whale activity in spot markets provides a powerful edge.

It helps identify shifts in sentiment — from fear to euphoria — and highlights moments when the market may become vulnerable to corrections.

Stay sharp, stay patient, and always manage risk ⚠️📉

Written by Amr Taha

Zoom out for a second.

MVRV Percentile maps where Bitcoin sits in its cycle from 0-100% based on Market Value to Realized Value ratio. When it crashes to 0-10%, the market is in capitulation. Most holders are underwater. Fear is maxed out.

Historically, these zones marked amazing opportunities for risk-seeking buyers.

But here's what it actually felt like:

👉 2015: MVRV hit single digits at $200-$300. Narrative: Mt. Gox killed crypto, it's going to zero, regulators will ban it.

What happened? Buying looked insane. Then Bitcoin ran to $20,000 by 2017.

🔥 2018-2019: MVRV dropped below 10% multiple times at $3,200-$4,000. Narrative: ICO bubble popped, institutional interest was a lie, blockchain has no use case.

What happened? Every bounce got sold. Funding rates stayed negative for months. Then Bitcoin ran to $69,000 by 2021.

🤨 2022-2023: MVRV hit 0-10% at $15,500-$20,000. Narrative: Luna, FTX, Celsius, Three Arrows—crypto is dead.

What happened? Retail capitulated. On-chain showed maximum pain. Then Bitcoin doubled within a year.

♻️ The pattern

The only time retail panics is the only time you should pay attention and possibly even get aggressive if that's your profile.

At 0-10%, you're in a high-opportunity regime. That doesn't mean go all-in. It's a buying opportunity for those thinking medium/long-term - extend timeframes, ignore noise.

If you're looking for risk and opportunity zones for buying, we're most likely in one right now.

Bottoms don't feel like bottoms. They feel like the beginning of something worse.

🥵That's why accumulation zones are surgical in hindsight but terrifying in real-time.

Written by RugaResearch

The correlation between the Bitcoin market’s bull–bear cycle indicator and Bitcoin reserve data on the Binance platform provides a clearer and more accurate picture of the current market environment. Bitcoin remains in the bear zone, with the indicator staying below zero and the short-term moving average falling beneath the long-term average. This positioning reflects a clear weakening of upward momentum and suggests that the market is entering a correction and rebalancing phase within the broader cycle, rather than signaling the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Historically, such signals tend to emerge during periods of heightened caution that often precede a return of genuine liquidity.

At the same time, Binance data shows a notable increase in Bitcoin reserves over recent days, with inflows totaling approximately 21,000 BTC, indicating a short-term movement of coins onto the platform. While this development is significant, it requires proper contextual interpretation. The increase occurred sharply and temporarily following a price decline and has not yet evolved into a sustained upward trend in reserves, nor has it been accompanied by panic selling or a sharp price breakdown. This suggests that weakening momentum and cyclical pressures are driving trader caution, while the reserve inflow remains time-limited and insufficient to confirm a structural bearish shift. A sustained rise in reserves would tilt the outlook toward clearer selling pressure, whereas a renewed decline would strengthen the case for supply absorption and the formation of a new price base.

Written by Arab Chain

Strategy (previously known as MicroStrategy) has become one of the most influential corporate actors in the Bitcoin ecosystem, not only as a large holder but also as a structural driver of demand through continuous accumulation and capital market activity. So, it's important to investigate the performance of its stock (MSTR) in these uncertain times and how it could affect the price action of Bitcoin.

The MSTR Price Bands (Bitcoin Holdings Based) chart shows the stock is currently trading below the lower valuation band for the first time. This indicates that MSTR is trading below to the implied value of its Bitcoin reserves, suggesting that much of the speculative premium seen in prior cycles has already been removed. In the current environment, the market appears increasingly reluctant to price MSTR meaningfully above the value of its underlying Bitcoin exposure.

The Price-to-BTC Reserve Ratio reinforces this view. The ratio has declined to historically low levels, implying that investors are no longer willing to pay a premium for each dollar of Bitcoin held by the company. Despite the stock’s relatively elevated absolute price, the falling ratio points to ongoing valuation compression rather than a temporary pullback.

Taken together, these signals suggest that, for MSTR, any upside now is highly dependent on a strong and sustained Bitcoin rally, while the absence of such a move leaves the stock vulnerable to further underperformance.

For Bitcoin investors, the data suggest a cautious to bearish signal. As Strategy’s valuation premium evaporates, its role as a sentiment-driven demand engine for Bitcoin weakens. If MSTR’s buying power slows more, Bitcoin becomes more reliant on organic demand and liquidity conditions. Giving the current market performance, this increases the likelihood of consolidation or downside for Bitcoin price in the near term.

Written by EgyHash

Bitcoin is trading at $86.7k while their average cost basis is $101.8k.

This creates a pain zone:

🔸 They bought high, now underwater

🔸 Every bounce toward $101k will bring breakeven sellers

🔸 If losses deepen to -20% or -30%, panic selling kicks in

Historically, this level either marks early capitulation or a bottom in the making.

The fight for trend is here. Watch how STHs react.

Written by IT Tech

When we analyze the Binance Inflow-Value Band chart, it becomes clear that the majority of inflows are coming from the 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands. These volumes do not belong to retail investors; they indicate that whales are actively transferring XRP to exchanges. Large transfers to exchanges are typically a preparation for selling.

After each major inflow spike on the chart, price forms a lower high and lower low structure, clearly showing that supply is overwhelming demand. This happens because there is no strong new spot buyer in the market. Even though whales are not aggressively dumping, the continuous increase in available supply keeps pushing the price lower.

Based on the inflow intensity and price reactions, the first major support zone stands at $1.82–$1.87. This area marks where price attempted to stabilize briefly and where small buyers appeared. However, if large inflows continue, the price may retreat further toward the $1.50–$1.66 range. In summary, this chart does not indicate a rally preparation.

In theory, the XRP ETF process was expected to create institutional demand and push prices higher through spot buying. Instead, what we observed was high volume XRP inflows to Binance. The reason is that whales were the first to act when ETF approval expectations increased. XRP accumulated in advance for the ETF narrative was transferred to exchanges and used as sell-side liquidity. In other words, whales sold the ETF approval story to retail investors.

As a result, price faces selling pressure every time it approaches the $1.95 level. Expecting a bullish move before exchange inflows decline would be an unrealistic assumptio

Written by PelinayPA

The XRP funding rates chart on Binance’s platform over recent weeks reflects a delicate market environment characterized by heightened caution and a clear shift in derivatives trading behavior. The data shows funding rates frequently turning negative, reaching as low as -0.0105, a relatively low level that indicates a clear bias toward short positions.

Structurally, negative funding means that traders holding short positions receive funding payments, suggesting that the market anticipates further downside pressure or, at the very least, a lack of strong bullish catalysts in the short term. This coincides with XRP’s decline toward the $1.80 area, confirming that the recent drop was not driven solely by immediate price movements, but was also supported by a clear repositioning within the perpetual futures market.

What is particularly striking in this context is that periods of negative funding were not accompanied by sharp price recoveries. On the contrary, they were associated with weak momentum and a lack of strong rebounds, indicating that selling pressure remains persistent rather than being the result of short-term position liquidation. This pattern often emerges during transitional market phases, when optimism fades, leveraged positions are reduced, and a broader rebalancing process takes place.

However, it is important to note that excessively negative funding can eventually become a supportive factor for price if spot demand improves suddenly or positive catalysts emerge, potentially triggering a short squeeze. At present, however, the data does not clearly point to such a scenario.

Written by Arab Chain

Recent Bitcoin on-chain data shows that the share of Realized Cap held by new whales is approaching 50%. This should not be interpreted as a short-term bullish or bearish signal, but as evidence that the structure of the Bitcoin market itself is changing.

Realized Cap is calculated not at the current market price, but at the price at which each bitcoin last moved on-chain. Therefore, saying that “new whales account for 50%” does not mean they own half of all bitcoins. It means that half of the total capital invested in the network was formed at relatively recent price levels.

In this context, today’s new whales are fundamentally different from those of the past. Long-term holders accumulated bitcoins at very low prices and gradually transferred supply during rising markets. New whales, by contrast, are entering at much higher prices while deploying significantly larger amounts of capital. What is unfolding is not a redistribution of coins, but a restructuring of Bitcoin’s cost base.

In the current cycle, these new whales are primarily corporations (DAT-type accumulators) and institutional capital via ETFs. They allocate capital in a structural and persistent manner, rather than reacting to short-term price movements. As a result, even during corrections, the Realized Cap share of new whales has continued to rise—an outcome with few historical precedents.

Ultimately, this on-chain indicator does not declare Bitcoin to be bullish or bearish. Instead, it shows that Bitcoin is no longer merely a speculative cycle asset, but is entering a transition toward a more mature asset shaped by sustained institutional accumulation. This development fundamentally challenges traditional cycle theories and raises important questions for investors who continue to forecast downside based solely on historical patterns.

A new structure requires a new imagination—and the outcome is increasingly likely to end in a major victory for Wall Street.

Written by CoinCare

The Ethereum derivatives market on Binance is setting new records, signaling a sharp increase in both risk appetite and optimism among traders.

According to recent data, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for Ethereum on Binance has climbed to an unprecedented 0.611. This marks a new All-Time High (ATH) for this metric. A rising ELR indicates that traders are taking on increasingly high leverage relative to the exchange’s reserves. Simply put, market risk exposure has reached a peak.

Simultaneously, on December 19, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio experienced a significant spike, hitting 1.13—a level not seen since September 2023. A ratio above 1 indicates that “taker” buy volume (aggressive buying) is dominating sell volume.

Conclusion:

The convergence of these two metrics sends a clear message: traders are not only highly optimistic about ETH’s price action (strong buying pressure) but are also willing to take on massive risks to back this sentiment (historic leverage).

While this setup can provide the necessary fuel to break through higher price resistance levels, high leverage is a double-edged sword. The accumulation of leveraged positions at historical highs leaves the market vulnerable to extreme volatility and increases the probability of a “Long Squeeze” in the event of even a minor price correction.

Written by CryptoOnchain

In the crypto market, the most important shift is not in prices, but in where capital is choosing to sit. On-chain data shows that this change is already underway globally. The total supply of ERC20-based stablecoins has expanded to around $160 billion, hovering near all-time highs. While supply briefly contracted during the risk-off environment of 2022, it has since resumed a clear upward trend.

This does not indicate capital fleeing the crypto market. Rather, it reflects funds temporarily de-risking while remaining inside the ecosystem, accumulating as “waiting liquidity” in stablecoins ahead of the next investment opportunity. Liquidity has not disappeared — it has simply changed form and is waiting for direction.

This global shift in capital behavior has important implications for Japan’s crypto market. As tax frameworks and investment infrastructure improve, domestic capital that has remained cautious may begin to re-enter the market alongside individual investors. Deeper liquidity would support more stable price discovery and gradually elevate Japan’s presence within the global crypto ecosystem.

Within this context, the role of JPYC, Japan’s yen-denominated stablecoin, becomes increasingly significant. While dollar-based stablecoins dominate globally, a yen-native digital currency offers Japan a unique advantage. Beyond serving as a trading pair on exchanges, JPYC has the potential to underpin real-world use cases such as Web3 services and domestic and cross-border payments.

Going forward, Japan’s crypto market is likely to evolve from a venue focused on price speculation into an environment where capital circulates and is actively used. How Japan absorbs and channels this globally mobile liquidity will define the market’s next phase of growth.

（Analysis Report No.152）

XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The Short-Term Holder (STH) Net Position Change (30d) has reached an All-Time High, signaling a positive daily difference of approximately 100K BTC. This metric tracks the 30-day change in supply held by addresses possessing coins for less than 155 days.

Key Takeaways:

Explosive Demand: A surge of this magnitude (+100K) indicates a massive wave of fresh capital entering the market. Short-Term Holders are absorbing available supply at a record-breaking pace, reflecting extreme buying pressure.

Bullish Momentum: Historically, significant spikes in STH holdings often correlate with parabolic phases of a bull run. This suggests that the current price rally is being fueled by high conviction from new entrants and active traders.

Market Dynamics: While this aggressive accumulation supports upward price action, it is important to note that STHs are generally more sensitive to volatility than Long-Term Holders. However, in the current context, this record high confirms that demand is overwhelmingly outpacing supply.

Conclusion:

The market is witnessing unprecedented interest. The +100K BTC spike in STH Net Position confirms that we are in a high-velocity accumulation phase, serving as a strong fundamental driver for the current trend.

Written by CryptoOnchain

On-chain data reveals that Tether (USDT) on the Ethereum network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in user activity. According to the chart, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of active addresses has breached the 200,000 mark, setting a new historical record.

What are the implications?

Increasing “Dry Powder”: A spike in active stablecoin addresses typically signals fresh liquidity entering the market. Investors are actively moving USDT to deposit onto exchanges or interact with protocols, often indicating readiness to purchase risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Ethereum Network Vitality: Since this metric is specific to the ERC-20 network, this surge reflects growing utilization of the Ethereum blockchain, increased DeFi transactions, and heightened exchange transfer volume.

Historically, when network activity for the market’s largest stablecoin peaks, it often precedes positive volatility and increased demand across the broader crypto market. Crossing the 200K active address threshold (on a monthly average) serves as a strong fundamental signal for healthy liquidity flow within the ecosystem.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Do you remember the Bitcoin whale who shorted the 10/11 market crash and walked away with more than $200 million in profit? That same whale appears to be active again, based on recent stablecoin transfers, trading behavior, and Bitcoin movements. Given the size and past market impact of this address, the activity is worth breaking down.

1. Binance as a High-Liquidity Stablecoin Conversion Layer

On December 1, 2025, at 10:23:11 UTC, the whale sent roughly $110 million USDT (Arbitrum) to Binance across three transactions. Shortly after, approximately $230 million USDC (Arbitrum) was transferred back.

This points to Binance being used as a stablecoin conversion venue (USDT → USDC) and/or a liquidity hub for large-scale balance adjustments. The USDC received ($230M) exceeds the USDT sent ($110M), meaning it has likely re-existing USDC balances on Binance.

2. Bitcoin Movement Alongside ETH Long Exposure

On December 12, 2025, around 07:00 UTC, the whale moved 5,152 BTC to a newly created address.

Past Bitcoin transfers from this entity have often aligned with sharp price moves, and this case was no different. The transfer occurred at a BTC price near $92,350, followed by immediate downside pressure. At the same time, the whale maintained significant long exposure on Ethereum.

3. Current Positions

The combined unrealized PnL across ETH, BTC, and SOL is currently around –$71.2 million. While sizable, the drawdown is minor relative to overall holdings: more than 30,000 BTC, along with large ETH and stablecoin reserves. Liquidation risk appears distant, though the positions are clearly under stress.

Key takeaway:

Binance continues to show up as the go-to venue for whale-scale stablecoin conversions, handling large USDT → USDC flows with minimal friction. In parallel, the whale shifted 5,152 BTC and added ETH long exposure within a tight timeframe. This trader is still active, still aggressive, and still worth monitoring in the coming days-to-weeks.

Written by maartunn

Bitcoin faced extreme volatility, surging from $87,100 to $90,400 before dropping to $86,000 in less than two hours, resulting in over $500 million in liquidations. This move, without fundamental catalysts, reflects excessive leverage and possible market manipulation, amid expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike scheduled for tomorrow, December 19, 2025, which could tighten global liquidity.

LONG LIQUIDATIONS

The on-chain indicator Bitcoin: Long Liquidations – All Exchanges, All Symbol, from CryptoQuant, recorded 1,951.015 on December 17, confirming the intensity of long liquidations and strong selling pressure in the market.

INTEREST RATE HISTORY

Expected hike – December 19, 2025 (0.75%)

◾ Anticipated to be the sharpest monetary tightening in nearly 30 years.

◾ BTC fell below $85,000, with $600M in long liquidations within 24 hours.

◾ BoJ comments triggered an additional $430M in altcoin liquidations.

◾ Risk of yen carry trade reversal, reducing global liquidity.

Previous hikes – July 2024 (0.25%) and January 2025 (0.5%)

◾ July 2024: BTC dropped from $65,000 to $50,000, a 26% decline.

◾ January 2025: hike to 0.5%, calmer reaction, but preceded by nearly 31% declines in earlier moves.

◾ Historical record: 23% drop (March 2024), 26% (July 2024), and 31% (January 2025).

CONCLUSION

The current scenario combines massive liquidations with expectations of a BoJ rate hike, reinforcing immediate stress in the crypto market. Historically, BoJ moves have led to sharp BTC declines, and the December decision could be another trigger for global selling pressure.

Written by GugaOnChain