102btc

If you all want to play with a meme coin—
this coin—I really got it
right before the new year🥹🥹🥹
You can check out this super low level at the bottom.
For the details, head to the comments 👀

Seriously, the script from summer 2022 is being replayed again

On August 17, the $BTC weekly close confirmed a break below the 200-week moving average at 64,320. Last time was the same: first it broke through, then a rebound, and then it was lost again in mid-August—the plot is identical.

So what now? After BTC broke below the 200-week moving average in 2022, it spent 16 months grinding underneath, then pulled back with a 6x rally.

This time the signal is stronger.

The Z-Score has dropped to -2.293, lower than the -1.979 at the bottom in late 2022. K33 says more than 50% of BTC supply is in floating loss, and the Fear & Greed Index is still 34.

But someone is making moves.

Giant whales holding 10,000–100,000 BTC added 30,000 coins 17 days before August. On August 17, ETF net inflows were 298 million, and BlackRock took 160 million.

Retail traders are in panic; whales are snatching up. Retail is cutting losses, and ETFs are catching the selling.

Z-Score lower than in 2022, the 200-week MA has been broken, floating loss over 50%, Fear at 34—four bottom signals appear at the same time. In 2022, once these signals showed up, BTC went from 15k to 126k.

Same script, but this time it’s cheaper.

I’m waiting for the day the 200-week moving average reclaims. When that happens and you look back, 63,000 will all look like a floor.

2022 went the same way—believers accumulated, retail investors sold in panic, and then $BTC ran from 15,000 to 126,000

Glassnode says profit-taking is slowing down; believers are stepping in, and that’s how the bottom is formed

In Q1 2026, the number of BTC held by believers jumped 69% from 2.13 million to 3.6 million. By May, it had already pushed to nearly 4 million—about a 300% increase versus the end of 2025. The current setup is almost identical to what we saw in 2022

Money is also coming back into the ETFs. On August 17, spot ETF single-day net inflows hit 298 million, ending three straight days of outflows

BlackRock took in 160 million, while Fidelity did 112 million. Last week, the combined net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs totaled 1.1 billion, ending the net outflow trend since 2026. The first week of August was even stronger—ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion for eight straight days. And with August not even halfway over, it’s already five times what July saw

The whales haven’t stopped either—since July 29 they’ve cumulatively added more than 20,000 BTC, worth about $1.2 billion

Believers are accumulating, ETFs are seeing net inflows, whales are stocking up, and retail is driven by fear. That’s the same combination as in 2022—then BTC went from 15,000 to 126,000

A 63,000 BTC, placed against the 3.6 million BTC in believers’ hands—just think about it

12-hour timeframe, a strong buy signal—things are looking up

$BTC bounced from 62,500 to 64,500. At the daily level, it has reclaimed the EMA50 and EMA200. The MACD shows a bullish crossover confirmation, and the RSI has broken above the downward trendline and moved above 50.

VanEck also chimed in—market pressure has already hit the top, and a rebound signal is in place. VanEck says multiple indicators suggest BTC has entered an “opportunity zone.”

And—someone is putting real money where their mouth is.

On Monday, after three straight days of outflows, the spot ETF saw a net inflow of $297.5 million in a single day. BlackRock’s IBIT brought in $160 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC added $112 million.

Over the past 60 days, large whales have accumulated an additional 43,000 BTC, worth $2.75 billion.

12-hour signals confirmed + ETF funds returning + whales sweeping $2.75 billion—three things happening at the same time.

This setup isn’t telling you to blindly rush in, but it’s at least worth a second look. At around $64,200 right now, the first hurdle above is $65,000. If it holds, you’re looking at $67,000–$68,000.

For execution, I’m watching $64,000. If it holds, I’ll look for $65,000. Place a stop-loss below $62,500. Don’t go all-in at $64,000, but also don’t wait until everyone starts yelling “bull’s back” before you react.

Oh wow, in a week Solana processed 1.16 billion transactions—everything else combined is only 627 million

On August 10, it hit 171.9 million in a single day, refreshing the all-time record twice in a week

What about the price? Still just hovering around $75

Tokenized stocks did 5.8 billion in Q2—up 114% quarter-over-quarter. Solana alone absorbed 95%-97% of the global share. The ETF saw net inflows of $10.26 million last week, a 70x increase versus the prior week

The most ruthless is SGP-0003—vote ends on August 22. It aims to raise the amount of SOL burned daily from 650 to 9,000. SGP-0002 moved the terminal inflation target from 2032 up to 2029, cutting issuance by 18.9 million SOL over six years

On-chain activity is surging, ETFs are buying, and supply is tightening—yet the price is still hovering around $75

$80 is the watershed. If it holds above, look for 95-100; if it can’t hold, expect 70-72. Breakout with volume—go; if it’s a weak breakout—wait

Don’t chase at $75

$ETH’s candlesticks are almost turning into a straight line🥲

From August till now, it’s been grinding back and forth in the 1,850 to 1,925 range. The 30-day volatility has been compressed to 1.68%. The last time it was this quiet was in 2023.

After that low-volatility period, ETH then crashed by 36%. The sideways move could be building up energy—or it could be the prelude to a slow bleed.

ETFs are running—last week the Ethereum spot ETF saw net outflows of 2.26 million. Even BlackRock’s own ETHA ran out 16.39 million. It was ferocious at the start of the month, but the second week basically fizzled out.

Big whales are moving too.

An address holding ETH for over 3 years sold 7,323 ETH on August 8, worth $13.96 million, with cumulative losses of over $19 million. “Big Brother” Machi Big Brother also cut more than half his positions, reducing from 5,264 ETH to 2,500. Early whales reportedly moved their holdings entirely to Bitstamp—possibly a full exit.

So what if staking has locked up 41.90 million ETH? The price is still stuck under 1,900. Less supply ≠ price must rise.

If it can’t break above 1,900, that’s the ceiling. 1,850–1,860 is the lifeline—if it can’t hold, then it becomes 1,830–1,845. If ETH breaks below 1,803, the liquidation strength of cumulative long positions on major CEXs could reach 6.65 billion.

The longer it chops sideways, the harder it blows. With ETFs moving, whales cutting, technical levels breaking down, and longs waiting to be liquidated—these four things are lining up at once.

Don’t bet on a reversal at 1,900. Wait until it truly breaks down before making a move.

BTC/SPX inverted head and shoulders top—BTC is up 3% today

What does it mean?

In the past three months, this ratio has formed a textbook-level inverted head and shoulders bottom—left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, all complete. In technical analysis, this pattern has only one direction: upward.

$BTC is rising, the US stock market is falling, and capital is flowing from US stocks into the crypto market.

The S&P 500 is down 0.5% today, while BTC is up 2%, pushing straight back above $64,000. This divergence isn’t a coincidence—it’s capital repricing. Stocks are near historical highs, while BTC is about cut in half—so where is the money coming from and where is it going? The answer is already shown in this chart.

Even the ETF flows are cooperating.

In the first week of August, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows were $853 million—its strongest since mid-April. BlackRock’s IBIT alone took a big share. Since Q3 began, ETFs have flipped back to net inflows, while the second half of Q2 saw net outflows of 110,000 BTC. The direction has already changed.

Big whales haven’t been idle either.

In Q2, JPMorgan increased its holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs by 25.5%, and Morgan Stanley added 23%. Wall Street is adding—not retail investors chasing.

The BTC/SPX ratio has already traced an inverted head-and-shoulders top from the bottom. ETF capital has shifted from outflows to inflows, and Wall Street giants are loading up.

When three things happen at the same time, it usually isn’t the time to panic.

My take: Breaking above $64,000 is just step one—$66,000 is the real test.

Don’t get scared and run in the bottom zone.

S&P 500 is celebrating at 7,800 points, while $BTC is lying still at 63,000—how many times have you seen this scene?

The S&P 500 is up about 4% this month. On August 13, it first broke above 7,800 to hit a record high. Wall Street has already raised its year-end target to 8,000. What about BTC? It’s still shuffling around in the 62,000–66,000 range. From the 126,000 peak, it’s already down 50%.

This divergence can’t be explained as “normal” anymore.

In the past, BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 was over 70%. Now it’s negatively correlated—the longest decoupling period since 2020. Risk capital is all moving into U.S. stocks and AI assets, and Bitcoin is being completely left on the sidelines.

Why are U.S. stocks rising?

AI. Palantir jumps 30% in a day; Nvidia and Microsoft are also getting pushed higher. Money is piling into tech stocks. On the BTC side, there’s a pile of problems—last week spot BTC ETF net outflows totaled $390 million, the largest weekly withdrawal since late June. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped below 20%. And MSTR has been selling coins for three consecutive months.

I bet this kind of divergence won’t last forever. The S&P 500 is at historical highs, and Bank of America warns that two major risks could end the bull market. BTC has fallen from 126,000 to 63,000— the most gentle bear market in history, bar none.

Money flows from the top to the bottom—that’s the iron rule. Put a 63,000 BTC on the other side of a historical high in U.S. stocks and think about it.

I’ll wait for the wind. It hasn’t arrived yet, but the direction is already clear.

Grass, three years, dry white spirits

The meme coin market cap hit the lowest weekly close in nearly three years. Years of gains have been wiped out—investment portfolios keep bleeding

$BTC’s market share has pushed above 58%, and the altseason index has fallen to 36—still a long way from the 75 threshold that signals the start of altseason. All the funds are concentrating on Bitcoin; the alts are bleeding continuously

XRP closed at $1, the lowest since November 2024. SOL is down about 40% this year, while XRP is down about 45%. DODO fell 7%, MOVR dropped 8%, and EDEN fell nearly 10%. It’s not a sudden crash—it’s a slow bleed: you lose a little every day; by the end of the month, the account is down a lot

When will altseason come? As long as Bitcoin’s market share doesn’t drop below 58%, the alts will keep getting drained. Institutional money only recognizes Bitcoin; retail investors are cutting their losses in alts, and the big whales are accumulating in BTC

It’s not time to “buy alts” now. Wait until BTC’s market share turns downward and the altseason index returns above 75

Until then, BTC is far safer than alts

Bitcoin at 63,000 has ground on for more than a month, and the market is almost running everyone’s patience out.

Those who have no position are急急，those who do have positions are烦，those who are on the sidelines are waiting for the crash.

But the people who are really taking action are quietly doing one thing—buying.

The ETF hasn’t stopped. In the first week of August, it pulled in $850 million—BlackRock alone ate $694 million. And with August not even halfway over, inflows have already reached five times July’s level. Even the whales haven’t been idle: since mid-June, whale wallets have cumulatively added 54,000 BTC, while retail investors are getting cut, and whales are snatching.

On-chain, signals are also coming through: long-term holders are resuming accumulation, and sellers are getting depleted. VanEck says Bitcoin is nearing the cycle bottom; Fidelity says a potential bottom could be seen by November 2026.

What 63,000 is wearing down is most people’s patience. Some are cutting losses, while others are stepping in to pick up.

I’m bullish. Buy in batches near 63,000—don’t go all-in at once. If it falls below 60,000, that’s “sending money,” not a disaster.

53 can’t hold, 26 is next!

Someone told me that HYPE is going back to 40. I said that’s too optimistic—26 is my target.

Stop talking fundamentals. First, look at who’s moving.

Last week, a huge whale pulled 1.89 million HYPE from Hyperliquid—worth $106 million—then immediately dumped 924,000 into Coinbase Prime and FalconX.

Meanwhile, the HyperLabs team itself redeemed 433,000 HYPE from its staking—worth $24.25 million—and sold them directly through the market maker Flowdesk. The team is selling, the whale is running, retail is catching—this scene is way too familiar to me.

The technicals aren’t pretty either. HYPE hovered around 57 for a few days, and the resistance at 58 was basically welded shut—couldn’t break through. After closing below 53, the next level down is 40. If 40 can’t hold, then 26 isn’t a joke.

Some say the HYPE protocol can make $800 million in a year, so the valuation should be able to hold. But a $1.23 billion market cap corresponds to annualized revenue of roughly $50 million—an earnings multiple of about 24x. In traditional markets that wouldn’t be that outrageous. But in crypto? You already know how insane things get when volatility kicks in. More importantly, there’s the buyback: on August 14, 81.9 million tokens unlock. The buyback is only 11.9 million—just 14.5%. Dilution is, plain and simple, real.

HYPE fell from 76 to 57—a 25% drop. Break 53, and you get 40. Break 40, and you get 26.

Don’t bet on a reversal at 57. Wait until it truly dumps before calling it.

Crazy—someone saw $ETH $22,000

An anonymous analyst, NoName, said that since 2021 ETH has been moving in a expanding wedge pattern. The first four waves are already complete, and the fourth wave found support in the 1,072–1,385 range.

Once the fifth wave starts, the target is $12,000–$22,000. Arthur Hayes also said that over the next six months, the next altcoin narrative will be Ethereum, with a goal of $5,000 by the end of 2026.

But don’t get too excited yet—first, get through the current hurdle.

ETH is currently around 1,863–1,888, with a daily range of $25. The 30-day volatility has been pushed down to 1.68%, the lowest since mid-May. After the last time volatility got this low, ETH went on to experience a one-directional drop of 36%.

Above, 1,890–1,900 is the ceiling; only once it breaks and holds above 1,920–1,950 can it be considered bullish again. Below, 1,850–1,860 is the bulls’ lifeline—if it can’t hold, the move goes to 1,830–1,845.

Meanwhile, institutions are making moves. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $6.71 million yesterday. BlackRock’s ETHA had a net inflow of $7.37 million, bringing the historical total net inflow to $1.819 billion. “Whales” haven’t been idle either—since the end of June they’ve cumulatively bought 79,000 ETH. Another whale bought 50,000 ETH from a Fidelity-linked wallet.

The fifth wave of the expanding wedge—historically, that’s where the big moves happen. But the prerequisite is this: you have to get through this frustrating period of sideways trading first.

People who understand it are already laughing

Damn, BTC.D is still hanging above 58%

History proves it—when BTC.D was dumped in 2017, $ETH rose by 174x. In 2021, BTC.D was pushed down from 70% to 38%, and the total market cap of altcoins multiplied by more than a dozen times. BTC.D rising means money is concentrating into Bitcoin, and altcoins are being bled. When BTC.D falls, funds spill over—altcoins’ spring is here

Institutions were already seated

In the first week of August, the ETFs raked in 850 million, and BlackRock alone took 694 million. In 60 days, the big whales added 46,420 BTC. Retail is cutting losses, while big money is loading up. The CLARITY Act is scheduled to be voted on September 15—passing odds jump from 13% to 21%. CPI is also cooperating; inflation is cooling

BTC.D at 58.86% isn’t the finish line—it’s the starting point. As it moves down, each step is fuel for altcoins. Some people are waiting for BTC to drop to 60k before entering, while others have already started positioning along BTC.D’s downward path. Someone will always be wrong

I’m bullish on altcoins. Don’t wait until everyone yells “It’s altseason!” before charging in—by then, the meat will already be gone

$NEAR consolidated around 1.65 for a week, forming a textbook-level descending wedge

From the June high of 2.7, it has been falling all the way down, with each subsequent peak getting lower. Buyers have stepped in several times in the 1.70–1.75 range. 1.80 is the trigger zone—if volume picks up and it breaks above, first look at 2.20; if it holds, then look at 2.50–3.00

The fundamentals are stacking crazy bullish catalysts

The stablecoin supply jumped 98% in a week, reaching $128 million. Based on stablecoin size, NEAR has already surpassed legacy chains like Cardano and Polkadot. Money is coming in, and it won’t leave right away

The co-founder just made a bold move—set up a protocol sovereignty fund, with an initial 30 million NEAR (about $57 million). The protocol treasury and revenue are held in NEAR, generating returns; the long-term goal is to reduce inflation

Grayscale is also paying attention. On August 11, it released a report saying NEAR is one of four blockchain networks that meet AI demand. In July, it just completed the 2.13 mainnet upgrade; after dynamic sharding goes live, the network can automatically scale without manual intervention

Some people are quietly buying; others are panic-selling

My take: at 1.65 NEAR, in the face of all these fundamentals, it has already fallen out of its value-for-money zone. If it breaks and holds above 1.80, then we’ll see 2.20; if 2.20 holds, then we’ll see 2.50–3.00

Build the position in batches between 1.65–1.70, with a stop loss below 1.50

2.1 trillion USD—gone within a year, wiped out

Crypto total market cap went from $4.2T down to $2.15T, and $BTC fell from 126,000 to 63,000. But this has already been the gentlest bear market in history—down 84% in 2018, down 77% in 2022, and this cycle is only down 50%

Everyone points to the same month—October 2026. Peter Brandt, Jiang Zhuoer, Fidelity, Grayscale, Cantor Fitzgerald— all pointing in the same direction

These people are calling for the bottom while疯狂 (frenetically) buying. Whale holdings climbed to 3.06 million BTC, while retail traders are getting stopped out. In the first week of August, ETFs did $850 million

The $2.1T is gone, but the money didn’t disappear—it just changed hands

With BTC at 63,000, there’s still 30% upside below, but above sit targets at 100,000 and 250,000

No one knows where the absolute low is. But historically, every bottom is formed when it “looks like it’s still going to drop”

Build in batches around 63,000, keep some firepower for 42,000–44,000. Don’t go all-in at once, and don’t stay in cash waiting

Russell 2000 hits a new all-time high again—this is its 27th time this year.

So far this year, it’s up 21.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Mag 7.

This has a lot to do with $ETH—back in 2016 and 2020, after Russell led the breakout, ETH lagged by 6 to 12 months before launching a surge. Now Russell has just set a new all-time high, while ETH is still hovering around 1,890.

The fundamentals are lining up: in the first week of August, net inflows into the spot ETH ETFs were $245 million. BlackRock’s ETHA has accumulated total historical net inflows of $11.634 billion. The staking rate is 34.7%, and exchange supply has dropped to the lowest level in many years.

Three things happen at the same time—historical patterns + ETF inflows + staking lockups.

After Russell broke out in 2016 and 2020, ETH also rose. Will it be different this time? Possibly. But the historical pattern is right there, and the fundamentals are cooperating.

Build positions in batches from 1,850 to 1,900, cut losses at 1,700, and target 2,100 to 2,200.

Wait for the wind to come 🫡

$BTC 66,626 is the shorts’ death line

According to Coinglass data, once BTC breaks 66,626, the liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX accumulated short positions will immediately jump to $1.216 billion. Chain explosions in the tens of billions—when one pops, it triggers the next

Right now BTC is at 63,000, which is less than 6% away from 66,626

The four wallets together hold 5,375 BTC shorts, worth $343 million. The biggest whale, 0x66f8, holds 2,136 BTC shorts worth $136 million, with a liquidation price of 64,595. It’s only about $1,500 away from getting liquidated

But the longs aren’t without cards—ETFs have recorded net inflows for 8 straight days, totaling over $1 billion. BlackRock alone ate 70%-81%

A $136 million short position—just $1,500 away from liquidation

Once 66,626 is broken, the scene is too beautiful for me to watch

The shorts are gambling with their lives, while the longs are waiting for the wind. 66,626 has already been written on the wall

200-week moving average: 63,500-64,000 USD. In 2015, 2018, and 2022—three times it was touched, all were bottoms.

The fourth time is here.

Around 63,000, 515,000 BTC worth of orders have piled up—accounting for 3% of the total supply. If this level breaks, there’s no volume underneath to hold it up—but who would want it to break?

ETFs have had net inflows for 8 straight days totaling over $1 billion. BlackRock alone took 81%. A “whale” added 46,420 BTC over 60 days. Retail is cutting losses, while institutions are accumulating.

Now, BTC bought at 63,000 is in the same category of position as in 2015 when it was at $166, in 2018 at $3,189, and in 2022 at $15,473. Buying near the 200-week moving average has never resulted in losses historically.

No one can guarantee you’ll buy the absolute bottom, but BTC at 63,000, if you hold for a few years, is likely to be a floor.

Let others be fearful; let me be greedy.

When BTC returns to 100,000, you’ll thank yourself for having the nerve to act today.

US stocks hit new highs, $BTC cut in half

S&P 7800, Dow 53000—America added over $2.7 trillion in just one week

BTC is still at 64,000, having fallen from 126,000 and exactly been cut in half

Ash Crypto is right to scold

US stocks rise on AI. BTC falls due to regulation + miners selling—production cost is 74,300; mine one, lose one

This week ETFs saw inflows of 850 million; BlackRock alone took 694 million. Money is flowing in, but the price doesn’t move—someone is buying and someone is selling

The decoupling is underway

In 2018, BTC rose from 3,200 to 69,000. In 2022, from 15,500 to 126,000

This time, starting from 64,000—you figure it out yourself

CZ’s tweets tonight were active, disrupting the prediction market

It directly caused $utility to surge 🚀🚀

Then what?

That led to $MarsCoin #coin having its odds drop