If we calculate based on an IPO starting trading on June 12, 2026, and the first earnings report scheduled to be released on August 4, 2026, then the unlocking schedule corresponding to currently available public information is as follows:
Unlocking date Unlocking details August 6, 2026 (Thursday) First tranche: the 2nd full trading day after the Q2 earnings report, unlocking about 20%; if the stock price meets the continuous trading day price increase conditions, it may also be unlocked early by an additional ~10%. August 21, 2026 Fixed unlock of about 7% (the 70-day milestone). September 10, 2026 Fixed unlock of about 7% (the 90-day milestone). September 25, 2026 Fixed unlock of about 7% (the 105-day milestone). October 10, 2026 Fixed unlock of about 7% (the 120-day milestone). October 25, 2026 Fixed unlock of about 7% (the 135-day milestone). The 2nd full trading day after the Q3 earnings report Unlock about 28% (the exact date will depend on the official Q3 earnings report release date). December 8, 2026 The 180-day lock-up period ends, and all remaining ordinary locked shares are fully unlocked. June 12, 2027 Elon Musk’s shares are unlocked (366-day lock-up period).
Key time points with the biggest impact on the market
If you’re trading, the points usually most worth focusing on are:
1. August 6, 2026 (the first wave of large unlocking) 2. December 8, 2026 (all 180-day lock-ups end) 3. June 12, 2027 (Musk’s share unlocking)
These three milestones are generally considered the time windows with the highest potential selling pressure.
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On May 21, SpaceX officially filed its S-1 prospectus with the SEC, planning to list on NASDAQ under the ticker 'SPCX'. This IPO is expected to raise around $75 billion, targeting a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest stock issuance in history.
According to the timeline disclosed in the prospectus, SpaceX will kick off its investor roadshow the week of June 8, host a retail investor event on June 11, price the shares on the same day, and officially start trading on NASDAQ on June 12. A major highlight of this IPO is the significant increase in the allocation for retail investors. SpaceX's CFO Bret Johnsen clearly stated that retail investors will be a 'key part' of this IPO, accounting for more than any previous IPO. Retail investors can receive up to 30% of the new shares, which is 3 to 6 times the industry norm of 5%-10%. Retail participation will be available through brokers like Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, and Morgan Stanley's E TRADE platform will also provide retail channels. Furthermore, SpaceX may waive the 6-month lock-up period for retail investors, allowing shares to be freely traded on the first day of listing. In addition to the U.S., investors from the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea will also have the opportunity to participate.
It's worth noting that SpaceX warned in the prospectus of expected high retail demand, which could exacerbate stock price volatility post-listing. Analysts suggest that due to the limited allocation of shares for retail at the IPO price, most retail investors are expected to buy in through the secondary market after the opening on June 12. On the risk front, despite SpaceX's strong business growth, with revenues projected to reach $18.67 billion in 2025 and Starlink surpassing 10 million users with a quarterly profit of $1.19 billion, the company is still in a loss position overall, projecting a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 with negative free cash flow.
Additionally, Musk retains 85.1% voting control through super-voting shares, meaning SPCX shareholders will have little say in major decisions. The $1.75 trillion valuation corresponds to 58 to 65 times the expected revenue for 2026, and the market is pricing in perfect execution; any performance below expectations could trigger a significant valuation correction.
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