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Strictly cracking down on #虚拟货币 , why is the asset token allowed?

Yesterday, Chinese regulatory authorities issued two regulatory documents. The first one is a joint effort by eight ministries to strengthen the regulation of virtual currencies, and the second one is the regulatory document released by the Securities Regulatory Commission regarding asset-backed securities tokens issued abroad.

These two documents seem contradictory, but the logic is very clear: strictly crack down on "currencies," and allow "assets."

The document from the eight ministries targets virtual currencies and stablecoins, with the core focus on preventing speculation, preventing capital outflow, and preventing currency sovereignty risks, thus continuing high pressure and even expanding the scope of the crackdown.

The Securities Regulatory Commission allows domestic assets to issue asset-backed securities tokens abroad, which are essentially securitized products supported by real cash flows, not just freely issuing tokens, and certainly not tools for speculating on currencies. The premise is recording, disclosure, and compliance, all within the regulatory framework.

Why open this door?

The core logic has three points:

First, this is "asset securitization on-chain," not "liberalizing virtual currencies."

The regulatory authorities are well aware that the world is promoting RWA, which essentially allows dollar assets to siphon off global liquidity through blockchain. Given this, Chinese assets can also utilize on-chain tools to obtain foreign funds, but the premise is controllable, recordable, and traceable. This is completely different from stablecoins; stablecoins involve currency substitution, while ABS tokens are merely financing tools.

Second, this is an extension of revitalizing existing assets.

China has been promoting REITs, ABS, and infrastructure securitization, all essentially aimed at "bringing future cash flows forward." If securities tokens can be issued abroad, it can attract global liquidity, lower issuance costs, and enhance trading efficiency, then it is merely a technical upgrade of traditional securitization, not a reconstruction of the financial order.

Third, this is a pilot-style refined regulation, not a comprehensive opening.

From the perspective of the recording system, information disclosure, foreign exchange restrictions, etc., the scale will not be too large in the short term, more like a controllable window.

The regulatory stance is very clear: illegal speculation will be resolutely cracked down on, and compliant financing will be moderately experimented with.

Therefore, the statement "Bitcoin surged because China liberalized RWA token issuance" is actually an excessive interpretation of market sentiment. China has not liberalized virtual currencies, nor has it liberalized stablecoins; it has only allowed certain real assets to be securitized on-chain under a strict regulatory framework.

Recently #黄金 #白银 price fluctuations have been severe, and Xiaohongshu has implemented bans on certain fund real-time valuation bloggers.
🧐🧐🧐

The regulatory agency has emphasized that fund sales institutions and third-party online platforms must strengthen self-examination and self-correction, and timely remove functions such as fund real-time valuation, increased holdings lists, and actual trading lists.

However, some self-media accounts have recently continued to act against the wind by developing and spreading fund real-time valuation tools to attract followers.

Currently, some Xiaohongshu blogger accounts have shown that the account has been banned for violating relevant community rules, and multiple recent posts about sharing fund real-time valuation tools have also been deleted.

In addition, some links selling fund real-time valuation software on the platform have also been removed.

The global financial markets are shaking, and recently, the external markets have been quite calm without any tariff threats or geopolitical conflicts!

But such a decline is not normal at all!

Is there an invisible black swan?
🧐

Is today more about $BNB and $BTC crashing? $ETH has hardly gone down? Is this considered a supplementary drop in amplitude or did something else happen?

Vitalik stated that the original vision of L2 as the core expansion of Ethereum is outdated, and he believes that L2 should seek a new path.

At the same time, over the past 3 days, Vitalik has sold a total of 2,779 coins $ETH , worth approximately 6.2 million dollars.

What areas does the "Cybercrime Prevention Law" (Draft for Comments) expand?

1) The scope of OTC is expanded

The common defense in U commercial OTC is: I am just trading, I don't know the other party is dealing with dirty money.

The current change no longer only looks at whether you really know, but it is easier to presume that you should know.

What situations are more easily presumed?

Significantly abnormal prices (high price for buying U, low price for selling U)
Abnormal transaction frequency/amount (large amounts in a short period, splitting orders)
Using encrypted chat software, jargon, evading supervision
Not doing strict KYC (even leaving no trace)
Continuing to trade despite unclear explanations of the other party's source of funds

2) The scope of providing assistance has expanded

Supporting behaviors include

Development
Operation and maintenance
Advertising promotion
Application packaging
Technical support

As long as you know the other party is engaged in illegal activities, providing these may be considered as assistance.

3) Overseas is also not safe

The draft clearly includes two categories of people in the jurisdiction

Chinese citizens abroad

Overseas organizations/individuals providing services to users within China

This means that if you are doing projects overseas, and your service objects include mainland users, you may also be held accountable.

4) Public chain nodes/blockchain services are included in the governance objects

Blockchain service providers are required to have the ability to:

Monitor
Block
Handle illegal information/payment settlement

However, truly permissionless public chains cannot achieve single-point blocking.

In other words, chains/nodes operating within mainland China will face two paths:
Change to consortium chains/auditable chains (with backdoors)
Or be non-compliant (legal risks)

5) Regulatory focus has shifted from financial risks to the chain of cybercrime

Previously, regulation mainly focused on:
Illegal fundraising
Financial order
ICO, exchanges

Now the focus has shifted to:
Fraud
Money laundering
Black industry
Flow of funds in cybercrime

It is no longer just about whether there is speculation on coins.

#美国政府部分停摆结束

Epstein claimed that Israel indirectly controls Bitcoin by controlling 3 of the 5 key developers among #比特币 .

This means that Israel may be able to modify the Bitcoin code.

It can also receive early warning information and even block transactions.

In addition, several entrepreneurs in the crypto industry have died under mysterious circumstances, including one whistleblower who died within 24 hours of revealing the behind-the-scenes situation.

Binance Safu has started buying 1 billion USD reserve address #比特币

The average price is approximately 75000-77000 USD, currently purchased 100 million USD
Address

1BAuq7Vho2CEkVkUxbfU26LhwQjbCmWQkD

At the same time, a new wallet withdrew 252 BTC from Binance, worth about 19.35 million USD

Everything is getting better

Just now, Boss Yi admitted his mistake in words. In the last round, profits were given back, and there is still a certain degree of leverage. Where is the specific liquidation position?

The Binance SAFU fund wallet has started authorizing U to be withdrawn. Is it time to buy the first batch this week?

Let's take stock. Currently, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline on Monday, and $ETH is obviously weaker, dropping almost 7%-8% every day, and it's a straight-line decline. From the 4-hour chart, it's clearer. ETH has slid from about 3100 to 2200 in the past two weeks, with a very exaggerated drop.

The reason the market is smashing ETH so fiercely is a core speculation that funds are rushing to the chain on #易理华 for a large position. His position exceeds 2 billion USD, with a liquidation price around 1880. At the current rate of decline, it may approach this position by Wednesday or Thursday, so he has to add margin to reduce his position and save himself.

Currently, he has already sold 33,000 pieces of $ETH to cut losses, realizing a loss of about 27 million, while there is still about 500 million USD of unrealized floating loss.

For him, the most critical question is whether to be liquidated or endure?

Not being liquidated may lead to a loss of around 500 million. Depending on past profits or repaying debts over a few years, he can still gradually pay it back. But once liquidated, the loss could directly reach 1 billion, and at this level, it's basically very hard to fill the hole. Moreover, the money is likely not his personal funds but that of the fund investors, and the subsequent pressure for accountability will be very high.

So now it depends on whether he can hold on until reaching the other side. However, historical experience tells us that large whales stubbornly holding positions often end up facing liquidation; holding positions is ultimately not a good thing.

If the impact of publicly disclosed orders on mentality is 1, the impact of fully transparent real transactions on mentality is 10, and the flow premium earned does not affect.

Trading itself is a matter that tests mentality. A poor mentality can easily lead to losses. Going public will bring a lot of unnecessary commentary interference; if you make money, you'll receive some admiration and some jealousy hoping for your loss. If you lose, you’ll face ridicule and some people kicking you while you’re down, as well as pressure on what to do next.

This round #银 and #稀土 such key minerals may not follow traditional cyclical logic.

Although the high price of silver may suppress solar energy demand and shift the energy structure towards coal/gas/generators, silver is also a critical material for the military industry.

Military demand is extremely insensitive to price; having a military advantage won't stop purchases just because prices are high. More critically, demands from EVs, autonomous driving, robotics, drones, and military rebuilding are all exploding at the same time, with both the US and Europe replenishing military supplies and ammunition stockpiles being very low.

Therefore, even if these key minerals rise to 125, 200 and then retract to 100, it will be very difficult to see a significant collapse; unless energy prices rise to a level that directly halts AI development, the overall commodities market will not easily crash.

The only thing that has started to show significant impact now is actually #太阳能 this line.

Think about it:

If you didn't plan to sell Bitcoin today, do you actually hope the price is higher or lower?

If your target price is 150,000, 200,000, or even higher, then before reaching your selling point, $BTC at 120,000 or 70,000 makes no difference in the number of holdings you have; the only difference is that the lower the price, the more chips you can buy at a cheaper cost.

Why does Strategy still buy at 117,000? Because they see that it will eventually reach 300,000, 500,000, or even 1,000,000.

Similarly, if you truly believe that dollar-cost averaging will eventually reach 0.5, 0.8, or even higher, then you would obviously prefer to buy at 0.3 USD rather than 3 USD. This is why many people claim to be long-term investors, but in their hearts, they are short-term gamblers, collapsing at the slightest dip; this is the reason most people fail to make money in the long run.

#比特币
#BTC何时反弹？

u finally returned to 7, the only good news recently

In the past few days, many people have been saying that the cryptocurrency market is in such a bad state, but it is actually just mean reversion.

This drop is more like a cleansing of the bubble from the previous cycle. The core reason everyone feels that cryptocurrencies are on the roadside now is that too many people are only focused on short-term prices.

Of course, we must also admit that cryptocurrencies are indeed underperforming: they can't beat the US stock market and they can't outperform gold and silver either.

But fundamentally, it’s all about cycles. Before the recent surge in gold and silver, they also experienced years of volatile cleansing; before A-shares could stand above 4000 points this time, they consolidated for nearly 10 years. Bitcoin has been on a 4-year cycle since its inception.

Liquidity is just rotating between different markets, and this current phase does not belong to cryptocurrencies; we can only wait.

On the positive side, the macro environment is actually gradually improving:

Increased certainty in regulation

The leading effect of the SEC

Possible two interest rate cuts this year

Trump's preparations for the midterm elections

All of these could potentially become factors that stimulate cryptocurrencies again this year.

So what’s more important now is to lower expectations for cryptocurrencies; when the market presents a new narrative, a new consensus, and new liquidity injections, cryptocurrencies will naturally attract global attention again.

#美国PPI数据高于预期

#特朗普 Appoint Kevin Walsh as #美联储 the new chairman

A crypto-friendly Federal Reserve chairman is about to take office

Does this also mean that the spring of crypto is coming?

Grandma who loves buying gold won

Dad who likes trading A-shares won

Mom who loves buying silver won

Even the younger brother who loves playing computer games won

Only you lost because you played in the cryptocurrency circle

#金价再冲高位

Why is the market pulling gold instead of #比特币 ?
#黄金 The second wave of rising began around 2008, the year the global financial crisis (the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis) occurred.

At that time, the financial system experienced a crisis of confidence: banks collapsed, assets exploded, and liquidity dried up.

The #Federal Reserve, in order to save the economy, initiated QE to inject liquidity into the market. This led to a very crucial expectation:

The purchasing power of the dollar would be diluted, and the credit of the dollar would be weakened.

Thus, funds began to seek harder assets to hedge against risks, and #黄金 , as the most traditional hard currency, naturally became the largest recipient.

The final result was that gold rose from about $700 per ounce in 2008 to about $1900 per ounce in 2011.

The third wave of gold's rise has continued since 2024, and the core issue remains the dollar's credit problem. U.S. inflation has been consistently above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (last year's average CPI was about 4.2%).

Although interest rate cuts have alleviated the situation, they have not completely resolved it, while the trend of de-dollarization globally has accelerated, especially as China has been steadily increasing its gold reserves over the past two years, treating gold as a strategic hedging tool at the national level. This also explains why we prefer to reserve gold instead of opening up to Crypto, while the U.S. seems to be incorporating Bitcoin into the financial game.

Of course, from the perspective of supply and demand and cycles, the dollar hegemony has not been immediately shaken (the dollar still accounts for 88% of global foreign exchange trading), but uncertainties such as geopolitical factors, inflation expectations, tariffs, government shutdown risks, and pressures from the Middle East continue to push funds toward safe-haven assets, with gold becoming the strongest recipient.

As for Bitcoin, although it has safe-haven attributes, during true global turmoil, the market will still choose the strongest consensus and the longest history, which is gold.

After Trump's statement allowing the dollar to weaken fermented, no one from the team has come out to deny or correct it, basically indicating that they do not plan to intervene in the dollar's trend in the short term.

Under this expectation, #黄金 rushed ahead, rising about $120 during the day, while the dollar index, although it dropped sharply in the early morning, rebounded afterward and did not continue to weaken, indicating that the market is betting on a "weaker dollar in the future," preemptively incorporating this expectation into gold prices.

Countries have started to control risks; the Shanghai Gold Exchange/Shangqi Exchange and CME have all raised margins or adjusted the price fluctuations, and the Bank of Thailand has even restricted gold short selling.

The core reasons are twofold: prices have risen too quickly, emotions are overheated, and the risk of bubbles is increasing; to prevent the risk premium of gold from spilling over and triggering financial risks from leveraged speculation in other metals.

Facing the current craze in non-ferrous metals, countries have begun to be vigilant, and this vigilance is also due to concerns about the targeted harvesting ability of the dollar.

A weaker dollar stimulating liquidity outflow is originally a good thing, but the premise is that the U.S. has no risks in the short term, while the U.S. still has a high government deficit, high inflation, and risks regarding employment. If the U.S. economy encounters problems that trigger the financial market, the more the financial market has risen, the greater the damage it will suffer. To put it bluntly, the currently overly inflated asset market may all become a blood bag for the U.S. to feed itself.

Examples of dollar assets being inflated and then targeted for harvesting are numerous in recent times, so countries are not foolish, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and Thailand, which have experienced the Asian financial crisis of 97-98, with the tragedy of the king still fresh in memory. Now, even a slight breeze can cause tension, which is understandable.

As for investors, theoretically, I believe that when a market's emotions are overheated, one should choose to reduce holdings or wait and see. However, for non-ferrous metals driven by gold, I am a bit uncertain. If I must buy, I would only consider physical gold/low leverage: the trend is still there, just being forced to accelerate; short-term pullbacks may trap people, but the probability of getting out is higher. At this time, increasing leverage is inappropriate.

#白银 and other non-ferrous metals are more driven by emotions; once gold fluctuates violently, their volatility will be amplified. Increasing leverage equals exposing oneself to high risk. Now is a stage of actively reducing beta and leaning towards defense, lowering exposure and leverage in non-ferrous metals, and remaining cautious without short selling.

CZ states that #加密货币 will make you no longer need to work.

Buy now and hold, retire in a few years.

The recent news is very exciting!

"Rebirth: I Declare War on the Eight-Nation Alliance in America"

#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁

#特朗普事件