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🎙️ 1205 蓄势看涨, 但做市商的镰刀也在前摇.
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251205 Daily Market Analysis
$BTC
After the big pancake surged, it began to oscillate downward for a callback. The smaller level has entered a consolidation structure.
Whether it can make a complete and strong breakthrough, as a potential bullish continuation, pay attention to whether the price around 90,000 can hold.
If it is broken with volume, it only indicates that the bulls are not as strong as expected. The price range in the lower vacuum area is relatively large, making it easier for market makers to manipulate, such as classic liquidity raids. Therefore, the main force is more willing to go to a lower position to gather chips. The bulls are lurking around 86,000.
After breaking down, quick action is needed to take profits.
After the big pancake surged, it began to oscillate downward for a callback. The smaller level has entered a consolidation structure.
Whether it can make a complete and strong breakthrough, as a potential bullish continuation, pay attention to whether the price around 90,000 can hold.
If it is broken with volume, it only indicates that the bulls are not as strong as expected. The price range in the lower vacuum area is relatively large, making it easier for market makers to manipulate, such as classic liquidity raids. Therefore, the main force is more willing to go to a lower position to gather chips. The bulls are lurking around 86,000.
After breaking down, quick action is needed to take profits.
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251204 Daily Market Analysis
$BTC
During the day, Bitcoin has started a narrow range of fluctuations at a high level, which is a clear signal of stagnation on a larger scale.
So there are no additional suggestions. Especially in the daily level where a potential W-bottom reversal structure is being formed, it is only recommended to enter on the right side after a stable breakout. Otherwise, priority should be given to handling it with low-level fluctuations.
Next, we will see if Bitcoin can break through and stabilize around the 93,000-94,000 mark, which will play a key role in the continuation of the bullish trend in the market.
In the evening U.S. stock market session, pay attention to the price performance around the 90,000 mark during the pullback. After a halt in the decline, if there is buying support, it is highly likely to shift to consolidation. The longer the consolidation lasts, the greater the opportunity to form a potential bullish continuation structure. Therefore, the position and extent of the pullback are quite important.
During the day, Bitcoin has started a narrow range of fluctuations at a high level, which is a clear signal of stagnation on a larger scale.
So there are no additional suggestions. Especially in the daily level where a potential W-bottom reversal structure is being formed, it is only recommended to enter on the right side after a stable breakout. Otherwise, priority should be given to handling it with low-level fluctuations.
Next, we will see if Bitcoin can break through and stabilize around the 93,000-94,000 mark, which will play a key role in the continuation of the bullish trend in the market.
In the evening U.S. stock market session, pay attention to the price performance around the 90,000 mark during the pullback. After a halt in the decline, if there is buying support, it is highly likely to shift to consolidation. The longer the consolidation lasts, the greater the opportunity to form a potential bullish continuation structure. Therefore, the position and extent of the pullback are quite important.
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This month's impact of the Japanese yen interest rate hike on U.S. stocks and global liquidity raises the question: can Bitcoin once again become a release valve for risk aversion sentiment?
The reversal of carry trades and capital outflows from the yen carry trade is a key transmission channel. Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates (even negative rates) for a long time, allowing investors to borrow low-cost yen and invest in high-yield U.S. stocks, bonds, or emerging markets, amplifying liquidity in U.S. stocks. In the first half of 2024, Japanese overseas investments bought more than 67 trillion yen, with a significant portion flowing into U.S. stocks. After the interest rate hike, the yen appreciates (the USD/JPY exchange rate falls), the cost of borrowing yen increases, and investors are forced to close positions to avoid liquidation: selling U.S. stock assets and repurchasing yen. This has led to a surge in selling pressure on U.S. stocks and tightening liquidity. At the same time, the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential narrows (Japanese rates rise from 0% to 0.25%, while the Federal Reserve's rates are above 5%), weakening the dollar and further diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. stocks. Quantitative impact: analysis indicates that if the USD/JPY falls from 150 to 130, closing carry trades could trigger a 10%-20% adjustment in U.S. stocks.
$BTC
The reversal of carry trades and capital outflows from the yen carry trade is a key transmission channel. Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates (even negative rates) for a long time, allowing investors to borrow low-cost yen and invest in high-yield U.S. stocks, bonds, or emerging markets, amplifying liquidity in U.S. stocks. In the first half of 2024, Japanese overseas investments bought more than 67 trillion yen, with a significant portion flowing into U.S. stocks. After the interest rate hike, the yen appreciates (the USD/JPY exchange rate falls), the cost of borrowing yen increases, and investors are forced to close positions to avoid liquidation: selling U.S. stock assets and repurchasing yen. This has led to a surge in selling pressure on U.S. stocks and tightening liquidity. At the same time, the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential narrows (Japanese rates rise from 0% to 0.25%, while the Federal Reserve's rates are above 5%), weakening the dollar and further diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. stocks. Quantitative impact: analysis indicates that if the USD/JPY falls from 150 to 130, closing carry trades could trigger a 10%-20% adjustment in U.S. stocks.
$BTC
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9:30 PM. Small non-farm data released. Little impact on this month's interest rate cut expectations. There may be spikes at lower levels, it is recommended to avoid.
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251203 Daily Market Analysis - Wide Range Consolidation
$BTC
The pancake, after completing the downward test again, starts a small-scale violent rebound.
The hourly level is establishing a new bullish framework, as the market seems to return to the rhythm of [bull return].
The bullish strength during the day has not been sustained, shifting to a narrow range oscillation. The current position is at the upper edge of a large-scale wide range oscillation, suitable for reducing bullish positions in hand. Be cautious about aggressively chasing more.
As it is near the upper edge of a wide-ranging consolidation structure, there is selling pressure in the potential selling area. Small-level pullbacks can attempt to catch a segment of bullish rebound, aiming for a continuation of the bullish rebound.
During the evening U.S. stock market session, pay attention to small-level pullback positions, especially the price performance around 8w8.
The pancake, after completing the downward test again, starts a small-scale violent rebound.
The hourly level is establishing a new bullish framework, as the market seems to return to the rhythm of [bull return].
The bullish strength during the day has not been sustained, shifting to a narrow range oscillation. The current position is at the upper edge of a large-scale wide range oscillation, suitable for reducing bullish positions in hand. Be cautious about aggressively chasing more.
As it is near the upper edge of a wide-ranging consolidation structure, there is selling pressure in the potential selling area. Small-level pullbacks can attempt to catch a segment of bullish rebound, aiming for a continuation of the bullish rebound.
During the evening U.S. stock market session, pay attention to small-level pullback positions, especially the price performance around 8w8.
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The blue area of the rainbow chart
is the "Special Sale" area.
$BTC
is the "Special Sale" area.
$BTC
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251202 Daily Market Analysis
$BTC
Bitcoin continues to decline during U.S. stock market hours. The smaller levels continue to fall without rising, and the rebound only starts after the afternoon session.
Slight rebound during the day. Back to the support and resistance level of the previous fluctuation range around 8w6.
Daily level wide fluctuation expectation, consolidation range 9w3-8w.
Hourly level rebound focuses on the price performance around 905. If the rebound fails to hold, the downward fluctuation will continue, and this will also apply to the 4H level's downward fluctuation, with a second retracement. Observe the price performance around 8w1 below and consider trying to catch a long position.
In the evening, focus on the rebound pressure test at 9w1. If the rebound test fails to hold, short positions can be set up around this level.
Bitcoin continues to decline during U.S. stock market hours. The smaller levels continue to fall without rising, and the rebound only starts after the afternoon session.
Slight rebound during the day. Back to the support and resistance level of the previous fluctuation range around 8w6.
Daily level wide fluctuation expectation, consolidation range 9w3-8w.
Hourly level rebound focuses on the price performance around 905. If the rebound fails to hold, the downward fluctuation will continue, and this will also apply to the 4H level's downward fluctuation, with a second retracement. Observe the price performance around 8w1 below and consider trying to catch a long position.
In the evening, focus on the rebound pressure test at 9w1. If the rebound test fails to hold, short positions can be set up around this level.
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251201 Daily Market Analysis - Opening Thunder Strike
$BTC
After the big coin closed the weekly and monthly lines, it slightly dropped first after the opening of the U.S. stock futures in the morning. Subsequently, the market began to decline rapidly with increased volume.
The weekend's shrinking rebound, at the tail end of the sideways fluctuation, ultimately leads to the large-scale rebound's upward channel being broken with volume. Overall, it is quite in line with last week's bearish flag expectation.
Since the choice is to break downwards, and there is no obvious bullish force intervening during the day. Especially under the premise of weakness during the Asian and European sessions.
After breaking below 90,000, the 4-hour level rebound ends, and the subsequent treatment is to regard it as a low-level consolidation structure. Pay attention to the price performance at previous low points.
After the big coin closed the weekly and monthly lines, it slightly dropped first after the opening of the U.S. stock futures in the morning. Subsequently, the market began to decline rapidly with increased volume.
The weekend's shrinking rebound, at the tail end of the sideways fluctuation, ultimately leads to the large-scale rebound's upward channel being broken with volume. Overall, it is quite in line with last week's bearish flag expectation.
Since the choice is to break downwards, and there is no obvious bullish force intervening during the day. Especially under the premise of weakness during the Asian and European sessions.
After breaking below 90,000, the 4-hour level rebound ends, and the subsequent treatment is to regard it as a low-level consolidation structure. Pay attention to the price performance at previous low points.
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251130 Daily Market Analysis - The Bid Must Be Matured
$BTC
First, let's review last week. After completing the 80,000 test, Bitcoin's weekly level experienced a 10% rebound. The strength and rhythm of the rebound can only be described as sluggish.
The good news is that after the weekly close tomorrow morning, we are about to welcome a bullish engulfing pattern, which signifies a rebound after a downtrend.
In the future, with the interest rate meeting in December approaching, I hope Bitcoin can bounce higher.
The inflow into ETFs has finally decreased significantly from a week of massive outflows, and there is now a net inflow. This is another good thing for a market with scarce liquidity.
The open interest in the futures market has significantly decreased as prices rebounded. This is largely due to the liquidation of most long positions and the reduction of short positions.
First, let's review last week. After completing the 80,000 test, Bitcoin's weekly level experienced a 10% rebound. The strength and rhythm of the rebound can only be described as sluggish.
The good news is that after the weekly close tomorrow morning, we are about to welcome a bullish engulfing pattern, which signifies a rebound after a downtrend.
In the future, with the interest rate meeting in December approaching, I hope Bitcoin can bounce higher.
The inflow into ETFs has finally decreased significantly from a week of massive outflows, and there is now a net inflow. This is another good thing for a market with scarce liquidity.
The open interest in the futures market has significantly decreased as prices rebounded. This is largely due to the liquidation of most long positions and the reduction of short positions.
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251127 Daily Market Analysis - Short Squeeze Reappears
$BTC
The U.S. stock market has violently rebounded, showing a short squeeze trend again. Bitcoin continues to follow the U.S. stock market upward. The rebound magnitude is still somewhat far compared to the U.S. stock market.
The good news is that the hourly bullish framework continues and has stabilized above 89,000. The rebound of the dispute is running along the upward channel.
The current position is cautious about pursuing more. Pay attention to whether it synchronizes with the U.S. stock market for a pullback in the evening. If it stabilizes around 89,000, then the rebound of the dispute has not yet completed. Consequently, the large-scale rebound continues to extend.
The small-scale rebound is once again significantly lagging behind. The current position has touched the short side, so one can only exchange narrow stop losses for a high risk-reward ratio. Therefore, it is essential to maintain good stop losses, work in segments, and take bites one at a time.
The U.S. stock market has violently rebounded, showing a short squeeze trend again. Bitcoin continues to follow the U.S. stock market upward. The rebound magnitude is still somewhat far compared to the U.S. stock market.
The good news is that the hourly bullish framework continues and has stabilized above 89,000. The rebound of the dispute is running along the upward channel.
The current position is cautious about pursuing more. Pay attention to whether it synchronizes with the U.S. stock market for a pullback in the evening. If it stabilizes around 89,000, then the rebound of the dispute has not yet completed. Consequently, the large-scale rebound continues to extend.
The small-scale rebound is once again significantly lagging behind. The current position has touched the short side, so one can only exchange narrow stop losses for a high risk-reward ratio. Therefore, it is essential to maintain good stop losses, work in segments, and take bites one at a time.
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251125 Daily Market Analysis
$BTC
Bitcoin follows the U.S. stock market for an oversold rebound. The small level has produced a five-wave three-segment rebound.
If the high point 8w9 completes a false breakout at the major support and resistance level, then the small level rebound begins to trend weak. Pay attention to the pullback around 855 in the evening. If it follows the U.S. stock market to adjust downwards, then this 4H level will end, and we will look for a consolidation downward.
There is no advice to chase highs at the small level, and the large level has not yet completed a reversal. The bullish rebound may encounter renewed bearish pressure at any time. Therefore, low bullish positions do not require a pattern.
In the evening, pay attention to whether the upward breakout can stabilize above 8w9. The small level bullish extension can only continue if the rebound looks towards higher levels.
Bitcoin follows the U.S. stock market for an oversold rebound. The small level has produced a five-wave three-segment rebound.
If the high point 8w9 completes a false breakout at the major support and resistance level, then the small level rebound begins to trend weak. Pay attention to the pullback around 855 in the evening. If it follows the U.S. stock market to adjust downwards, then this 4H level will end, and we will look for a consolidation downward.
There is no advice to chase highs at the small level, and the large level has not yet completed a reversal. The bullish rebound may encounter renewed bearish pressure at any time. Therefore, low bullish positions do not require a pattern.
In the evening, pay attention to whether the upward breakout can stabilize above 8w9. The small level bullish extension can only continue if the rebound looks towards higher levels.
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251124 Daily Market Analysis
$BTC
During the decline last week, the changes in fees clearly indicated that the sentiment for buying low was quite strong.
The obvious change in open interest shows that shorts are gradually starting to reduce their positions.
With the weak rebound of Bitcoin, many short positions began to actively "chase shorts", either to continue to add to short positions for further declines or to add fuel in advance for subsequent rebounds. We need to proceed cautiously.
First, look at the weekly level; Bitcoin maintained at 87,000 last week. Liquidity began to enter from 80,000, along with some reduction in short positions. The downward momentum is starting to encounter resistance. With the expectation of interest rate cuts rising, market sentiment has also slightly eased.
During the decline last week, the changes in fees clearly indicated that the sentiment for buying low was quite strong.
The obvious change in open interest shows that shorts are gradually starting to reduce their positions.
With the weak rebound of Bitcoin, many short positions began to actively "chase shorts", either to continue to add to short positions for further declines or to add fuel in advance for subsequent rebounds. We need to proceed cautiously.
First, look at the weekly level; Bitcoin maintained at 87,000 last week. Liquidity began to enter from 80,000, along with some reduction in short positions. The downward momentum is starting to encounter resistance. With the expectation of interest rate cuts rising, market sentiment has also slightly eased.
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251123 Daily Market Analysis - Rebound is not a reversal
$BTC
Bitcoin has seen four consecutive weeks of decline, and Friday's U.S. stock market continued to drag down the cryptocurrency sector.
Until the New York Federal Reserve Chairman released dovish news [possible rate cuts in December], a massive buying spree in the U.S. stock market surged in, leading to significant price action in Bitcoin, gradually moving out of the downturn.
After experiencing a weekend rebound with reduced volume, market sentiment is gradually emerging from extreme panic, ushering in a minor upward rebound.
In the evening until tomorrow's pre-market, pay attention to the price performance around the rebound at 90,000. Especially noticeable is the current rebound with significantly reduced volume. Short sellers are closing positions, resulting in an oversold rebound on an hourly basis. If the rebound fails to test higher, continue to treat it with a bearish outlook.
Bitcoin has seen four consecutive weeks of decline, and Friday's U.S. stock market continued to drag down the cryptocurrency sector.
Until the New York Federal Reserve Chairman released dovish news [possible rate cuts in December], a massive buying spree in the U.S. stock market surged in, leading to significant price action in Bitcoin, gradually moving out of the downturn.
After experiencing a weekend rebound with reduced volume, market sentiment is gradually emerging from extreme panic, ushering in a minor upward rebound.
In the evening until tomorrow's pre-market, pay attention to the price performance around the rebound at 90,000. Especially noticeable is the current rebound with significantly reduced volume. Short sellers are closing positions, resulting in an oversold rebound on an hourly basis. If the rebound fails to test higher, continue to treat it with a bearish outlook.
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251121 Daily Market Analysis - Only those who retreat will expose their naked swimming
$BTC
Bitcoin has fallen for four consecutive weeks, with daily lows reaching new depths. The decline is clearly in an acceleration phase.
Due to the macro expectations of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market and the crypto sector are facing a multi-faceted squeeze from institutional whales and retail investors, with some cutting losses and others fleeing.
The rapid liquidation of leverage during high-level flash crashes, combined with continuous oscillations downward, is almost like a lifeline for short-term bulls.
In the current atmosphere of panic, the only thing that can protect you is to keep your hands steady.
The contract positions surged sharply, almost surpassing the positions before the flash crash at 1011. The funding rate remains bullish, so who exactly is madly bottom-fishing in the contract market while frantically dumping and suppressing prices in the spot market?
Bitcoin has fallen for four consecutive weeks, with daily lows reaching new depths. The decline is clearly in an acceleration phase.
Due to the macro expectations of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market and the crypto sector are facing a multi-faceted squeeze from institutional whales and retail investors, with some cutting losses and others fleeing.
The rapid liquidation of leverage during high-level flash crashes, combined with continuous oscillations downward, is almost like a lifeline for short-term bulls.
In the current atmosphere of panic, the only thing that can protect you is to keep your hands steady.
The contract positions surged sharply, almost surpassing the positions before the flash crash at 1011. The funding rate remains bullish, so who exactly is madly bottom-fishing in the contract market while frantically dumping and suppressing prices in the spot market?
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251120 Daily Market Analysis - What saves you, my Bitcoin
$BTC
Bitcoin has once again hit a new low during the US stock market. A gain of three and a retreat of two is roughly equivalent to not falling.
After a day of low-volume rebound, selling pressure seems to start decreasing. However, it still hasn't broken out of the bullish structure.
With evening news coming in, it is recommended to watch more and act less.
For the higher daily level, it has begun to gradually walk out of a slow decline, and there has been quite a bit of buying around the expected 88000 level, which has eased the fierce decline. This is relatively good news for short-term Bitcoin.
However, whether it can break out of the reversal will still require time to confirm, as it's hard to turn a large ship.
In the evening, pay attention to whether there will be another new low during the US stock market, especially after the non-farm payroll news. Shorting requires quick profit-taking, otherwise, small-level rebounds can easily trigger stop-losses.
Bitcoin has once again hit a new low during the US stock market. A gain of three and a retreat of two is roughly equivalent to not falling.
After a day of low-volume rebound, selling pressure seems to start decreasing. However, it still hasn't broken out of the bullish structure.
With evening news coming in, it is recommended to watch more and act less.
For the higher daily level, it has begun to gradually walk out of a slow decline, and there has been quite a bit of buying around the expected 88000 level, which has eased the fierce decline. This is relatively good news for short-term Bitcoin.
However, whether it can break out of the reversal will still require time to confirm, as it's hard to turn a large ship.
In the evening, pay attention to whether there will be another new low during the US stock market, especially after the non-farm payroll news. Shorting requires quick profit-taking, otherwise, small-level rebounds can easily trigger stop-losses.
See original
The small non-farm data will be released at 9:30 PM. As the first non-farm data after the suspension, it is of significant reference value.
Higher than expected is bearish, lower than expected is bullish.
The data may be distorted and can only be used as a reference, especially given the significant differences in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes regarding the interest rate cuts in December.
At that time, the market may experience significant fluctuations, so it is recommended to protect positions if you have them. If you have no positions, stay on the sidelines.
$BTC
Higher than expected is bearish, lower than expected is bullish.
The data may be distorted and can only be used as a reference, especially given the significant differences in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes regarding the interest rate cuts in December.
At that time, the market may experience significant fluctuations, so it is recommended to protect positions if you have them. If you have no positions, stay on the sidelines.
$BTC
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251119 Daily Market Analysis -- Meeting Minutes at 3 AM
$BTC
The big coin experienced a rare 'decoupling' with the US stock market last night, with the US stocks continuing to pull back, and the big coin slowly showing resilience.
The market surged in the early morning and then fell back, followed by a narrow range of fluctuations, waiting for the US stock market to give direction.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released at three in the morning, providing clear guidance on the expectations for rate cuts in the future market, which is not very friendly to Asian users in terms of timing. The market will have answers after waking up tomorrow morning.
Back to the market.
There was again selling pressure during the day, with a minor recovery action. There is an expectation of a W-bottom reversal pattern appearing again.
However, continuous fluctuations and downward movements can easily break this pattern, so it's only advisable to consider entering long positions once it breaks out on the right side.
The big coin experienced a rare 'decoupling' with the US stock market last night, with the US stocks continuing to pull back, and the big coin slowly showing resilience.
The market surged in the early morning and then fell back, followed by a narrow range of fluctuations, waiting for the US stock market to give direction.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released at three in the morning, providing clear guidance on the expectations for rate cuts in the future market, which is not very friendly to Asian users in terms of timing. The market will have answers after waking up tomorrow morning.
Back to the market.
There was again selling pressure during the day, with a minor recovery action. There is an expectation of a W-bottom reversal pattern appearing again.
However, continuous fluctuations and downward movements can easily break this pattern, so it's only advisable to consider entering long positions once it breaks out on the right side.
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$btc
Divergence indicates that a reversal is imminent.
The rise brought by the news has turned into a chicken or egg problem.
So do you want to wait for the reversal before taking action, or try to predict a bottom expectation in advance?
Divergence indicates that a reversal is imminent.
The rise brought by the news has turned into a chicken or egg problem.
So do you want to wait for the reversal before taking action, or try to predict a bottom expectation in advance?
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251118 Daily Market Analysis
$BTC
The shorts on Bitcoin continue to increase. Following CME's futures, the gap around 92,000 will be completed.
The spot price once fell below the 90,000 mark, and the market has entered a state of extreme fear.
Many people have already priced in the bear market in advance. Whether it’s the turning point of the bull or bear market, or the deep squat of the bull tail.
In times of pessimism, the market often prepares for the next trend, especially in the crypto sector, where experienced players who have gone through several rounds of bull and bear markets should have had such experiences.
Of course, this does not suggest that one should actively bottom-fish and be bullish. Rather, under the market's panic, please try to remain rational, and do not be scared into easily throwing away your chips.
The shorts on Bitcoin continue to increase. Following CME's futures, the gap around 92,000 will be completed.
The spot price once fell below the 90,000 mark, and the market has entered a state of extreme fear.
Many people have already priced in the bear market in advance. Whether it’s the turning point of the bull or bear market, or the deep squat of the bull tail.
In times of pessimism, the market often prepares for the next trend, especially in the crypto sector, where experienced players who have gone through several rounds of bull and bear markets should have had such experiences.
Of course, this does not suggest that one should actively bottom-fish and be bullish. Rather, under the market's panic, please try to remain rational, and do not be scared into easily throwing away your chips.
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