$SEI will be listed on Binance and other major exchanges on the 15th of August. With details of the tokenomics revealed, this has sparked wild speculations on what the price of $SEI will be at launch.

"Can SEI get to $1?" "I just need SEI to be at $5, and I'm made." "What if SEI gets to $10?" These are just some of the numbers flying around.

Can $SEI actually get to $1? Or even $10? Let's find out. We'll consider two things:

  • $SEI tokenomics

  • Historical record of Chain launches

$SEI Tokenomics

A quick look at $SEI tokenomics, and we can find the following:

  • Total supply: 10 billion

  • Circulating supply: 1.8 billion (18%)

With 1.8 billion tokens in circulation at launch, a price of $1 per $SEI will give it a market cap of $1.8 billion. Also, a price of $10 will give $SEI a market cap of $18 billion.

What do you think? Is this realistic?

Historical Records Of Chain Launches

Over the years, many Chains have launched their coin on Binance from day 1. Some of the most hyped ones are Arbitrum ($ARB), Aptos ($APT) and $SUI).

$SUI's launch was quite underwhelming, so I won't talk about that one. Let's see what happened on the first day of launch for ARB and APT.

Aptos ($APT)

Launched on October 19, 2022, APT had a price spike up to $100 in its first few seconds of launch. However, the tradable price for that day was a high of $9.1.

The initial circulating supply was 130 million. Initial listing was at $1, with a market cap of $130 million. A high of $9.2 saw ATP trading at $1.17 billion market cap.

Arbitrum ($ARB)

Similar to $SEI, $ARB has a total supply of 10 billion coins. It was launched on March 3, 2023. That day, ARB traded at a high of $1.5, 3x from initial listing of $0.5.

ARB had 1.27 billion initial circulating supply, constituting 12.7% of total supply. Starting Market cap was $635 million, and it had a market cap high that day of $1.9 billion when ARB was at $1.5

What Can We Conclude?

It's hard to be absolutely sure of what the price will be, but these data gives us an idea. Yes, SEI has a vibrant community, and the tech is great. But it doesn't have the same credibility Arbitrum boasted of at launch of its token. Sei is just getting off testnet, whereas Arbitrum had around $3.2 billion TVL at ARB launch.

You can say it's in a similar situation with Aptos, which had it's APT coin launched just after testnet.

Comparing both cases, we can say $SEI will be somewhere in between. I don't think $SEI will have a market cap of $1.8 billion at launch, let alone $18 billion. But $1 billion is possible.

With 1.8 billion SEI to be in circulation at launch, my expected price range is $0.3 - $0.7

What are your #SEI price predictions?