📌 Correction: The $2.8 billion figure in yesterday’s MSCI headline was an old estimate from JPMorgan last year; MSCI itself has never disclosed the scale of potential selling. Strategy says index-tracking funds hold only about 3.1% of its shares, worth roughly $1.6 billion based on Tuesday’s closing price. One more clarification: $8.8 billion is the upper-end scenario in which FTSE Russell or S&P Dow Jones also follow suit, bringing the total upper limit to about $11.6 billion. The November 30 selling would involve MSTR shares, not forced crypto sales. If the data is wrong, own up to it. Thanks to the readers who pointed out the issue.
Last night was a triple-hit: Nvidia’s CEO suddenly resigned, Treasury yields broke above 5%, and Fed officials took turns striking a hawkish tone. BTC couldn’t hold up and fell below $72,000 overnight, hitting a three-month low. It doesn’t follow U.S. stocks on the way up, but follows them all the way down—this is the clearest picture of the market right now.
📊 Data and sources (as of 2026-11-13 08:30 Beijing time)
· BTC: around $71,200, down about 3.9% in 24 hours; the November 12 UTC daily candle opened at $74,015, reached a high of $74,217, a low of $72,735, and closed at $72,884. Sources: Finnhub / Binance BTC/USDT.
· ETH: around $2,019, down about 1.9% in 24 hours; briefly fell below $2,000 intraday. Source: Binance spot data.
· Nvidia: CEO Jensen Huang resigned on November 12, effective immediately, and CFO Colette Kress took over on an interim basis; the stock briefly fell more than 13% after the news was announced. Sources: USA Today, TechCrunch, Nvidia SEC 8-K filing.
· ETF flows: On November 11, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $299.9 million, marking a fifth consecutive trading day of outflows and bringing cumulative outflows since November 5 to about $1.44 billion; BlackRock's IBIT saw outflows of $269.7 million for a ninth consecutive trading day, with cumulative outflows over nine days of about $2 billion; spot ETH ETFs saw outflows of $145 million the same day. Sources: SoSoValue, Farside Investors.
· Liquidations: About $725 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market over the past 24 hours. Source: CoinGlass.
· Macro: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 5%, reaching 5.10% (up 12 basis points on the day); gold fell 2.7% to $3,880 per ounce; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both struck hawkish tones; the probability of a December rate hike is about 85%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike rose to 15.3%. Sources: U.S. Treasury, Reuters, CME FedWatch, Polymarket.
· Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. October PPI will be released; expectations are for a 0.4% month-over-month increase, with core PPI up 0.3%. Source: U.S. Department of Labor calendar.
🔍 Three signals that are more interesting when viewed together
First, trouble for the core asset in the AI narrative, and BTC is the first to take the hit. Over the past two years, BTC's correlation with AI stocks has grown increasingly strong. Nvidia is the engine of the AI narrative, and when the engine sputters, BTC can't stay immune. Nasdaq futures fell first yesterday, followed by BTC breaking below the $73,000 and $72,000 levels—this isn't a crypto-specific problem; risk assets are being repriced across the board.
Second, ETFs are still bleeding, but this isn't a panic-driven rout. Five consecutive days of outflows, totaling $1.44 billion, with IBIT alone accounting for 90% of the November 11 outflows. But liquidations across the crypto market totaled $725 million over the past 24 hours, which isn't out of control relative to the scale of this decline. The main driver is the slow redemption of spot ETF holdings, not a cascade of leveraged liquidations. Bleeding is more grinding than a crash, and it's harder to tell when it will end.
Third, nearly all technical support levels have broken. The 200-day moving average is around $73,173, the 50-week moving average is $75,153, and the short-term holder cost basis is about $75,600—all are now above BTC's price. The next psychological level is the round $70,000 mark, with around $68,000 in view below that. The Fear & Greed Index is at 25 (on the brink of extreme fear); market sentiment has already taken a hit.
💡 My take
Tonight's PPI at 21:30 is the first test for this downturn. If inflation cools, expectations for a 50-basis-point hike should ease, giving BTC a chance to rebound above $74,000; if inflation comes in hotter than expected again, pricing for a December hike will strengthen further, and the $70,000 level will be put to the test. Nvidia is also due to report earnings on November 17, so uncertainty around the AI narrative won't go away before then.
Five consecutive days of ETF outflows show that institutions are still pulling back, but the pace hasn't accelerated ($300 million on the 11th, compared with $412 million in a single day last Friday). My view: this downturn looks more like “bleeding” than a “crash”—but if the bleeding goes on long enough, it can become severe.
⚠️ Risk alert
If tonight's PPI comes in hotter than expected and Treasury yields keep rising, a BTC break below $70,000 could trigger a cascade of long liquidations; if Nvidia keeps falling and drags down the Nasdaq, losses could deepen. Conversely, if PPI cools, short covering could happen quickly. Markets carry risk; invest with caution. This article is not investment advice.
💬 What’s your call on tonight’s PPI: cooling inflation or another upside surprise? Will BTC hold $70,000 first, or rebound to $74,000? Share your thoughts in the comments.