After last night’s move back up to $74,000, I went through the data. Honestly, this rebound was driven by short covering—not by a return of confidence.

The entire market saw $199 million in liquidations over 24 hours, more than two-thirds of them shorts.

Put simply: prices fell too fast, short sellers got liquidated, and forced buying pushed prices back up.

This isn’t buying pressure—it’s a meat grinder that paused for a moment.

What about the other side?

U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for four straight days, with outflows exceeding $1 billion since the start of the year.

Prices are bouncing, but money is flowing out. Think carefully about what that tells you.

My view is simple:

After October CPI came in scorching hot, the 10-year Treasury yield broke 5% intraday.

In this rate environment, rallies are for trimming your positions, not chasing them.

Whether 74,000 holds depends not on the candlestick chart, but on whether the Fed raises rates by 25 or 50 basis points in December.

Do what you see, not what you think.

What I see is: shorts are covering, institutions are pulling back, and macro conditions are tightening.

So don't buy into the word “reversal” ahead of time.

#BTC #ETH