$BTC
is playing out like it did last cycle.
Maybe it goes a little lower, but the “big bounce” could come at any time.
My personal guess for the lowest it could go before a big bounce is ~$65k. But it could also happen anywhere above that, too, just like it did in 2023.
It seems extremely likely to hold above the major support of the bottom pattern ($67k, allowing for brief wicks below).
Basically, somewhere between $65k and $74k seems likely to me for the local bottom (the higher low).
I would not wait for lower than that.
Remember: Bitcoin has already bled a lot versus the stock market, so BTC can be more resilient as much of BTC’s downside has been realized already.
I make my assumptions with the view that the cycle bottom is already in (just as I stated officially on August 20).
is playing out like it did last cycle.
Maybe it goes a little lower, but the “big bounce” could come at any time.
My personal guess for the lowest it could go before a big bounce is ~$65k. But it could also happen anywhere above that, too, just like it did in 2023.
It seems extremely likely to hold above the major support of the bottom pattern ($67k, allowing for brief wicks below).
Basically, somewhere between $65k and $74k seems likely to me for the local bottom (the higher low).
I would not wait for lower than that.
Remember: Bitcoin has already bled a lot versus the stock market, so BTC can be more resilient as much of BTC’s downside has been realized already.
I make my assumptions with the view that the cycle bottom is already in (just as I stated officially on August 20).
