Looking at the Binance Spot ARBUSDT daily chart, the trading pair status is TRADING. $ARB is Arbitrum on Binance Spot. The window runs from August 11, 2026 to November 8, covering 90 completed daily candles (UTC); today's candle is still in progress and isn't included.

Over these 90 days, $ARB rose from a closing price of 0.0803 on August 11 to 0.1662 at the close on November 8, a gain of 106.97%. Over the same period, $BTC rose from 63600 to 74851.44, a gain of 17.69%; $ETH rose from 1882.59 to 2127.46, a gain of 13.01%. Counting the direction from open to close each day: $ARB had 49 bullish days and 41 bearish days. The compounded open-to-close return over these 90 days was +108.06%. The difference from the +106.97% close-to-close return comes from overnight gaps.

I set “small-body day” as a strict condition: the absolute difference between the day's opening and closing prices is no more than 10% of the day's high minus low, and the day's range must be greater than 0. All 90 days have a range greater than 0, so each day can be evaluated. There are 15 such confirmation days, and the following day for each one is still within this 90-day window: the compounded open-to-close return is +26.93%, averaging +1.85% per day; 7 days closed up and 8 closed down. Compounding based on the confirmation days' closing prices gives +26.94%. The 15 confirmation days themselves had a compounded open-to-close return of +3.68%.

Of that +26.93%, the 3 days with the biggest gains on the following day compounded to +51.69%, while the remaining 12 days compounded to -16.33%. On August 19, the price went from an open of 0.0753 to a close of 0.0895, up +18.86%; the day's high was 0.0906 and low was 0.075. The signal day was August 18, which opened at 0.0751, reached a high of 0.076 and a low of 0.0736, and closed at 0.0753. Its own open-to-close gain was +0.27%; the body was 0.0002 and the range was 0.0024, so the body accounted for 8.33% of the day's range. On September 15, the price went from an open of 0.1337 to a close of 0.1518, up +13.54%; the day's high was 0.1562 and low was 0.1314. The signal day was September 14, which opened at 0.1331, reached a high of 0.1422 and a low of 0.1328, and closed at 0.1337. Its own open-to-close gain was +0.45%; the body was 0.0006 and the range was 0.0094, so the body accounted for 6.38% of the day's range. Next was September 2, when the price went from an open of 0.1104 to a close of 0.1241, up +12.41%; the day's high was 0.1278 and low was 0.1059. The signal day was September 1, which opened at 0.1094, reached a high of 0.1202 and a low of 0.1045, and closed at 0.1104. Its own open-to-close gain was +0.91%; the body was 0.001 and the range was 0.0157, so the body accounted for 6.37% of the day's range. If we remove the day with the biggest gain on the following day, the remaining 14 following days have a compounded open-to-close return of +6.79%.

The following day with the biggest loss was August 12. The signal day, August 11, opened at 0.0801, reached a high of 0.0815 and a low of 0.0773, and closed at 0.0803. Its own open-to-close return was +0.25%; the body was 0.0002 and the range was 0.0042, so the body accounted for 4.76% of the day's range. The next day, August 12, went from an open of 0.0802 to a close of 0.0741, down -7.61%; the day's high was 0.0809 and low was 0.0736.

For comparison, there are 74 days in the window where the following day is observable, but the day itself is not one of the 15 small-body days: their compounded open-to-close return is +63.51%; 41 days closed up and 33 closed down. Conversely, there are 9 days where the body accounts for at least 80% of the range and the following day is observable: their compounded open-to-close return is +12.19%, averaging +1.41% per day; 7 days closed up and 2 closed down.

The highest price in the window occurred on September 23, reaching 0.2555 intraday. The November 8 close of 0.1662 was 34.95% below that high. To get back to 0.2555 from that close, it would need to rise another 53.73%. The November 8 close was 130.19% above the August 16 low of 0.0722.

The first 45 bars went from the August 11 close of 0.0803 to 0.2166 on September 24, a gain of +169.74%; the next 45 went from 0.2166 to 0.1662 on November 8, a loss of -23.27%. The longest winning streak lasted 8 days, from the August 16 open of 0.0727 to the August 23 close of 0.1013, a gain of +39.34%. There was also a losing streak of 5 consecutive days, from the September 7 open of 0.1893 to the September 11 close of 0.1395, a loss of -26.31%. The biggest single-day closing gain occurred on September 5, with the close rising from the previous day's 0.1319 to 0.1772, up +34.34%. The biggest single-day closing loss occurred on September 28, with the close falling from the previous day's 0.2262 to 0.202, down -10.70%. Over these 90 days, the average absolute daily open-to-close move was 5.08%, compared with 1.40% for Bitcoin over the same period. In this 90-day period, 82 days closed above the August 11 close of 0.0803, 7 days closed below it, and 1 day closed at the same price (one of those days was August 11 itself).

Over these 90 days, $ARB's closing price rose from 0.0803 to 0.1662, a gain of 106.97%; over the same period, $BTC gained 17.69% and $ETH gained 13.01%. But after those 15 small-body days, the compounded open-to-close return on the following day was +26.93%, with 7 days closing up. The 3 days with the biggest gains compounded to +51.69%, while the remaining 12 returned -16.33%; removing the biggest day leaves +6.79%. In the same window, the following days after the 9 long-body days (body at least 80% of the range) compounded to +12.19%, while the 74 comparison days compounded to +63.51%. Next time $ARB has a day where the body is no more than 10% of the range, would you watch the following day first, or think the sample of only 15 is too small and the biggest winning day needs to be examined separately?