I’m flat today and won’t take a trade. $BTC 4H is still below both moving averages, but yesterday it was around 75700, and today it’s still at 75871. It barely moved all day. The bears can’t push it down, and the bulls can’t reclaim it.
Yesterday I said the trend had turned bearish. That view hasn’t been invalidated yet, but the price hasn’t moved down either, so I can’t claim I was right. I was definitely wrong on the trades: all five closed positions hit their stop-losses. Not a single one won. The good part is that each one stopped at the level I had set in advance—none lost more than planned.
I don’t have any positions open now. I’m waiting for the price to choose a direction. The copy-trading portfolio is also flat. Those five stop-losses yesterday hit my followers too. I won’t show you only the good-looking trades.
The Fear and Greed Index is 28, so the market is very fearful. But funding rates for both BTC and ETH are only at the 0.01% baseline. That means people are talking about fear, but no one is heavily positioned short. Without one side getting crowded, there’s no fuel for a short squeeze or a liquidation cascade. This kind of market is most likely to chop back and forth.
I’m watching 77162 above—that’s the 4H EMA21. Yesterday’s bearish thesis was based on price being held down by it. Below, I’m watching 74810, the recent 4H low. If price gets back above 77162, the bearish view is invalidated, and I’ll return to neutral and reassess. If it breaks below 74810, then the bears will have truly taken over, and I’ll start looking for short opportunities. I’m staying out of the middle, this range of more than two thousand points.
The thing I should avoid most today: after a losing streak, trying to win it all back with the next trade.
#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #BTC
Yesterday I said the trend had turned bearish. That view hasn’t been invalidated yet, but the price hasn’t moved down either, so I can’t claim I was right. I was definitely wrong on the trades: all five closed positions hit their stop-losses. Not a single one won. The good part is that each one stopped at the level I had set in advance—none lost more than planned.
I don’t have any positions open now. I’m waiting for the price to choose a direction. The copy-trading portfolio is also flat. Those five stop-losses yesterday hit my followers too. I won’t show you only the good-looking trades.
The Fear and Greed Index is 28, so the market is very fearful. But funding rates for both BTC and ETH are only at the 0.01% baseline. That means people are talking about fear, but no one is heavily positioned short. Without one side getting crowded, there’s no fuel for a short squeeze or a liquidation cascade. This kind of market is most likely to chop back and forth.
I’m watching 77162 above—that’s the 4H EMA21. Yesterday’s bearish thesis was based on price being held down by it. Below, I’m watching 74810, the recent 4H low. If price gets back above 77162, the bearish view is invalidated, and I’ll return to neutral and reassess. If it breaks below 74810, then the bears will have truly taken over, and I’ll start looking for short opportunities. I’m staying out of the middle, this range of more than two thousand points.
The thing I should avoid most today: after a losing streak, trying to win it all back with the next trade.
#加密貨幣 #AITrading #BinanceSquare #BTC
