The nonfarm payrolls data was just too “good.” A December rate hike is basically a sure thing now; all we can hope is that there won’t be another hike in Q1 next year.
#非农就业数据推升加息预期
First, the increase in nonfarm payrolls far exceeded both expectations and the previous figure. Second, the unemployment rate was below both expectations and the previous figure. Third, the labor force participation rate was above both expectations and the previous figure. Given these employment figures, there’s no obstacle to one rate hike.
On the other hand, both annual and monthly wage growth exceeded expectations, with monthly growth far surpassing both expectations and the previous figure. A rate hike is necessary.
So this once again confirms Brother Feng’s earlier conclusion: the market won’t start to recover until Q1 next year at the earliest. We’ll have to see what the December dot plot shows; we can’t rule out another rate hike in Q1 next year.
#非农就业数据推升加息预期
First, the increase in nonfarm payrolls far exceeded both expectations and the previous figure. Second, the unemployment rate was below both expectations and the previous figure. Third, the labor force participation rate was above both expectations and the previous figure. Given these employment figures, there’s no obstacle to one rate hike.
On the other hand, both annual and monthly wage growth exceeded expectations, with monthly growth far surpassing both expectations and the previous figure. A rate hike is necessary.
So this once again confirms Brother Feng’s earlier conclusion: the market won’t start to recover until Q1 next year at the earliest. We’ll have to see what the December dot plot shows; we can’t rule out another rate hike in Q1 next year.
