Over 24 hours, it rose only about 6%–7%, while over 4 hours it retraced 4.87%; leverage-side crowding continued to increase. $HOT spot and perpetuals rose 7.37% and 6.14%, respectively, on a rolling 24-hour basis. Perpetuals fell 0.94% in the previous complete 1-hour period, but trading volume increased 30.63% from the prior period, while OI quantity rose 2.48% over the same period.
Looking across 30 OI data points, positions expanded by a cumulative 52.19%; the indicative funding rate was about -1.0268%, and the most recent actual settlement was also as low as -1.0424%. These figures show that the long-short battle is intensifying, but they cannot identify the direction of newly added positions. Trading volume over the most recent 4 hours was only 0.40 times that of the previous window, which also does not support interpreting the extreme negative funding rate directly as a rebound signal.
I would put more weight on confirmation within the range: only a move above 0.0003889 USDT on higher volume over a complete hourly period, alongside a moderation in OI growth, would support another test of the highs. If it falls below 0.0003674 USDT on rising volume while OI continues to increase, beware of leverage-driven conflict amplifying the pullback further.
* NFA, DYOR
Looking across 30 OI data points, positions expanded by a cumulative 52.19%; the indicative funding rate was about -1.0268%, and the most recent actual settlement was also as low as -1.0424%. These figures show that the long-short battle is intensifying, but they cannot identify the direction of newly added positions. Trading volume over the most recent 4 hours was only 0.40 times that of the previous window, which also does not support interpreting the extreme negative funding rate directly as a rebound signal.
I would put more weight on confirmation within the range: only a move above 0.0003889 USDT on higher volume over a complete hourly period, alongside a moderation in OI growth, would support another test of the highs. If it falls below 0.0003674 USDT on rising volume while OI continues to increase, beware of leverage-driven conflict amplifying the pullback further.
* NFA, DYOR
