According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool by CME Group, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October with a probability of 61.8%, and to deliver a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike with a probability of 38.2%. By December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 13.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 56.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 30%.
In terms of data structure, the market has already fully priced in the possibility of tightening expectations within the year, and the pricing process is approaching its end. As upside-surprising hawkish risks are gradually absorbed by the market, the actual downward pressure on asset prices from marginal negative factors is visibly weakening.
For traditional financial markets, after this round of repricing, the upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index has slowed, and capital is looking for new support levels. Greater clarity around interest-rate expectations is often accompanied by liquidity reallocation, and risk assets have already built a solid technical bottom in the current range.
For the crypto market, the easing of macro uncertainty provides $BTC with excellent rebound momentum. As selling pressure wanes and a bottom structure is established, market liquidity is expected to recover a new round of risk-on sentiment after the remaining negative catalysts are exhausted.🚀
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
In terms of data structure, the market has already fully priced in the possibility of tightening expectations within the year, and the pricing process is approaching its end. As upside-surprising hawkish risks are gradually absorbed by the market, the actual downward pressure on asset prices from marginal negative factors is visibly weakening.
For traditional financial markets, after this round of repricing, the upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index has slowed, and capital is looking for new support levels. Greater clarity around interest-rate expectations is often accompanied by liquidity reallocation, and risk assets have already built a solid technical bottom in the current range.
For the crypto market, the easing of macro uncertainty provides $BTC with excellent rebound momentum. As selling pressure wanes and a bottom structure is established, market liquidity is expected to recover a new round of risk-on sentiment after the remaining negative catalysts are exhausted.🚀
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket