#美元指数时隔两月重上101 US dollars, and Bitcoin is standing at 101—has this rally in crypto and U.S. stocks run out of steam?
A stronger dollar is indeed a negative, but it’s not a death sentence.
The Fed just added 25 basis points, and officials also said, “One time isn’t enough.” The market is now pricing in another hike in October, with the U.S. dollar index heading toward 101, as ING’s people are seeing. Money is flowing into dollar-denominated assets, so risk assets are naturally under pressure.
But look at what the crypto market is doing: Bitcoin is stubbornly holding near 87,000, and just the other day it squeezed shorts and blew up more than 600 million in short positions. The ETH ETF is also attracting inflows. What does that mean? The market is fighting between two logics: “strong dollar” and “looser regulation.”
The SEC side has granted an innovation exemption for tokenized stocks—that’s a concrete positive. On-chain, what about it? Glassnode data shows that big holders actually reduced positions in September, and their accumulation score has dropped to around zero. That’s interesting—prices are rising, but on-chain activity isn’t following.
So my trading logic is very simple: don’t chase after highs, and don’t catch falling knives. Once the dollar breaks above the 101 level, historically the crypto market will have to shake out. Wait for the pullback and see whether 82,000 can hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOXL
A stronger dollar is indeed a negative, but it’s not a death sentence.
The Fed just added 25 basis points, and officials also said, “One time isn’t enough.” The market is now pricing in another hike in October, with the U.S. dollar index heading toward 101, as ING’s people are seeing. Money is flowing into dollar-denominated assets, so risk assets are naturally under pressure.
But look at what the crypto market is doing: Bitcoin is stubbornly holding near 87,000, and just the other day it squeezed shorts and blew up more than 600 million in short positions. The ETH ETF is also attracting inflows. What does that mean? The market is fighting between two logics: “strong dollar” and “looser regulation.”
The SEC side has granted an innovation exemption for tokenized stocks—that’s a concrete positive. On-chain, what about it? Glassnode data shows that big holders actually reduced positions in September, and their accumulation score has dropped to around zero. That’s interesting—prices are rising, but on-chain activity isn’t following.
So my trading logic is very simple: don’t chase after highs, and don’t catch falling knives. Once the dollar breaks above the 101 level, historically the crypto market will have to shake out. Wait for the pullback and see whether 82,000 can hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOXL
