$GOOGL Yesterday fell 4.74%, and the funding rate is still positive at 0.00027816. This is the real market feedback of the Trump trade—in one sentence: the tariff threat against tech stocks is not just talk; the market is pricing the actual risk.
Prices are down, yet the funding rate is positive. Longs are still adding to positions while trapped. This is the most dangerous structure. Historically, when a drop like this comes with a positive funding rate, it’s often not a bottom—it’s the prelude to a liquidation cascade. Every day longs hold through it, they pay funding, piling up costs. Once they can’t hold past a certain critical point, it turns into panic selling.
The market isn’t pricing any major long-term negative catalyst—this is purely a contest between short-term capital over how far Trump’s rhetoric will go.
So my view is very direct: bearish in the short term. I’ll place a short order near 345 on a price rebound, using 3x leverage, with a strict stop-loss set at 348 (above yesterday’s opening price). If it breaks directly below 340, I’ll also chase the short. Take profit first at 330. The logic behind this trade isn’t betting on Google’s fundamentals—it’s betting that Trump’s uncertainty will continue to suppress tech sentiment, and that a positive funding rate is a burden on the longs.
The invalidation conditions are also simple: if Trump suddenly changes his tune and signals support for tech, or if overall U.S. stock sentiment flips and drives a rally, I’ll accept the loss and exit.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #GOOGL
Where do you think this line of reasoning is most likely to be wrong?
Prices are down, yet the funding rate is positive. Longs are still adding to positions while trapped. This is the most dangerous structure. Historically, when a drop like this comes with a positive funding rate, it’s often not a bottom—it’s the prelude to a liquidation cascade. Every day longs hold through it, they pay funding, piling up costs. Once they can’t hold past a certain critical point, it turns into panic selling.
The market isn’t pricing any major long-term negative catalyst—this is purely a contest between short-term capital over how far Trump’s rhetoric will go.
So my view is very direct: bearish in the short term. I’ll place a short order near 345 on a price rebound, using 3x leverage, with a strict stop-loss set at 348 (above yesterday’s opening price). If it breaks directly below 340, I’ll also chase the short. Take profit first at 330. The logic behind this trade isn’t betting on Google’s fundamentals—it’s betting that Trump’s uncertainty will continue to suppress tech sentiment, and that a positive funding rate is a burden on the longs.
The invalidation conditions are also simple: if Trump suddenly changes his tune and signals support for tech, or if overall U.S. stock sentiment flips and drives a rally, I’ll accept the loss and exit.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #GOOGL
Where do you think this line of reasoning is most likely to be wrong?