$CRCL 24 hours down 3.386%, current price 92.73. Funding rate is positive at 0.00011754. Open interest is 1.22 million contracts. Political events like Trump tariffs or regulatory headlines often trigger a sudden on-chain plunge in US stock futures contracts, but with prices down and funding positive, the longs are betting on a hard policy reversal and holding positions.
With prices falling and funding positive, after longs get trapped they are still adding to average down. This structure is the most prone to triggering a chain-reaction liquidation cascade. Last time it was similar—funding rate stacking together with a price decline—within three days the market was forced out with a 15% drop. The shorts were just lying back collecting profits. The strongest counter-evidence would be if Trump suddenly rolled out a favorable policy and the longs used that momentum to pump the price, but the probability is low. The second-order effect is that if a liquidation wave comes, liquidity may flow toward short covering, and the price could accelerate the move lower.
My view is bearish in the short term because political uncertainty is high and the longs can’t bear the cost. Action: place a limit sell at 93.2, 2x leverage, stop-loss at 95.5 (invalid if it breaks above the prior high), take-profit at 90.0, position size 15%. If the price breaks below 90, I will add to the position to 20%, because the open interest of 1.22 million contracts corresponds to about $113 million. The liquidation wall may be here.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
With prices falling and funding positive, after longs get trapped they are still adding to average down. This structure is the most prone to triggering a chain-reaction liquidation cascade. Last time it was similar—funding rate stacking together with a price decline—within three days the market was forced out with a 15% drop. The shorts were just lying back collecting profits. The strongest counter-evidence would be if Trump suddenly rolled out a favorable policy and the longs used that momentum to pump the price, but the probability is low. The second-order effect is that if a liquidation wave comes, liquidity may flow toward short covering, and the price could accelerate the move lower.
My view is bearish in the short term because political uncertainty is high and the longs can’t bear the cost. Action: place a limit sell at 93.2, 2x leverage, stop-loss at 95.5 (invalid if it breaks above the prior high), take-profit at 90.0, position size 15%. If the price breaks below 90, I will add to the position to 20%, because the open interest of 1.22 million contracts corresponds to about $113 million. The liquidation wall may be here.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?