Tonight I want to discuss a tougher question than “which altcoin is pumping the most”: real institutions have put in actual money, but on Friday there are still about $16 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire—after a pullback, should retail investors still rush to chase a push toward $90,000?
First, some context (all public data—no numbers invented):
1) Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of over $1.7 billion in two days: according to the SoSoValue data, on Monday about $999 million (close to the highest single-day level since 2026), and on Tuesday about $715 million; Cointelegraph reported the total accordingly, at over $1.7 billion. Total net assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are about $111 billion. Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart estimates the average cost basis of ETF holders at about $81,722—once the price moves above that level, institutional positions return to being in profit.
2）Price momentum: This week, BTC briefly rose to around $87,000 (24-hour high on CoinGecko was about $87,251). Tonight, spot has roughly pulled back to around $85,500 (per CoinGecko/Coinbase/Kraken). The 7-day move is still about +13%. It’s not a “crash”—it’s just that after the rally, it’s catching its breath.
3）Derivatives fuel: During the rally, many media outlets cited data such as CoinGlass—headlines showed short liquidations on the order of about a billion dollars. Then market attention shifted to the 90,000 zone. More importantly, this Friday (Sep 25), Deribit has roughly $16 billion notional in Bitcoin options expiring (media figures: about $9.6B calls vs about $6.4B puts). Large open interest is stacked around 90k/95k/100k.
4）Sentiment: Alternative.me’s Fear & Greed Index is 71 today (Greed), down one step from yesterday’s 78 (Extreme Greed). Sentiment is still hot, but it’s no longer at that “first time in over a year” extreme level.
My take:
This upswing is “ETF real money” plus a “short squeeze” happening at the same time—don’t just look at candlesticks and shout bullish. Institutional inflows can lift the floor, but around the expiry of large options on Friday, implied volatility often gets repriced. When the move is too aggressive and leverage is piled on too thickly, the settlement could also cause some of the momentum to leak out.
Retail traders, pay attention:
• Don’t interpret “$1.7B over two days” as something that will happen every day. After a day of massive inflows, you should focus on whether subsequent inflows remain consistently positive—not extrapolate the single-day peak out to 90k.
• Pullback to around 85,500 isn’t an unlimited opportunity. If you’re trading contracts, first check your liquidation price and margin—don’t tell yourself the story of shorts getting blown up yesterday, then add even higher leverage to chase longs.
• Options expiry ≠ price must go to 90k. Concentrated open interest only indicates that the contest is centered around that area; it isn’t a navigation system. Whether spot support and ETF net inflows can hold matters more than slogans.
• Sentiment fell from 78 to 71, suggesting the market is cooling down a bit on its own. At this point, what matters is position discipline—not who has the better slogan.
Discussion prompt for everyone: Around Friday’s expiry, do you think it’s more likely that the “ETF continues shouldering the market toward 90k,” or that “squeeze momentum fades and price chops as it digests”? How should spot traders and derivatives traders each respond?