$BTC “Cutting a boat to seek a sword”—once, how should Bitcoin’s long positions be handled?
In the 2022 bear market, if counted from the highest point to the time Bitcoin bottomed and broke the bear-to-bull (bull/bear) conversion line, the weekly-level MSB took roughly 450 days (Fig. 1). After breaking 25211, during the period 25211—weekly OB, a horizontal box-like range was formed for about 22 days (Fig. 2). It then retested the area around 25211 twice to test overhead supply and wash out the market, followed by a breakout above the top of the range, starting a main uptrend that “never looks back.”
As for the current bear-to-bull conversion, it has only taken 350 days to complete the structure (Fig. 3), which is 100 days less than the previous cycle. The main players may be a bit impatient, but that also suggests the market’s consensus is currently fairly good: major institutions are “accumulating,” and at the very least this leaves room for imagination regarding the next leg up.
What might happen next? There is no price action that rises without pullbacks. If it goes up too much, it must come down—that’s inevitable. It’s only the depth of the pullback that’s unknown. If, going forward, capital continues to flow in strongly and overhead supply remains relatively small, it could form a range-bound consolidation between 75–98, or even 85–929. Of course, it could also form other consolidation patterns—like a bull flag. All of these are normal. Therefore, long-term longs shouldn’t be in a hurry: wait until a structure and pattern are clearly formed, then enter. One reason is to look for the lower point of the pullback; the other is to look for the breakout point. Those two long-term entry locations must be grasped.
Since there is no completely consistent price trajectory, the “cutting a boat to seek a sword” here is about copying the main players’ operational mindset.
(Of course, if the pullback breaks below 75, that would be even better—but will the main players really give an opportunity to pick up cheap chips? Who knows.)
In the 2022 bear market, if counted from the highest point to the time Bitcoin bottomed and broke the bear-to-bull (bull/bear) conversion line, the weekly-level MSB took roughly 450 days (Fig. 1). After breaking 25211, during the period 25211—weekly OB, a horizontal box-like range was formed for about 22 days (Fig. 2). It then retested the area around 25211 twice to test overhead supply and wash out the market, followed by a breakout above the top of the range, starting a main uptrend that “never looks back.”
As for the current bear-to-bull conversion, it has only taken 350 days to complete the structure (Fig. 3), which is 100 days less than the previous cycle. The main players may be a bit impatient, but that also suggests the market’s consensus is currently fairly good: major institutions are “accumulating,” and at the very least this leaves room for imagination regarding the next leg up.
What might happen next? There is no price action that rises without pullbacks. If it goes up too much, it must come down—that’s inevitable. It’s only the depth of the pullback that’s unknown. If, going forward, capital continues to flow in strongly and overhead supply remains relatively small, it could form a range-bound consolidation between 75–98, or even 85–929. Of course, it could also form other consolidation patterns—like a bull flag. All of these are normal. Therefore, long-term longs shouldn’t be in a hurry: wait until a structure and pattern are clearly formed, then enter. One reason is to look for the lower point of the pullback; the other is to look for the breakout point. Those two long-term entry locations must be grasped.
Since there is no completely consistent price trajectory, the “cutting a boat to seek a sword” here is about copying the main players’ operational mindset.
(Of course, if the pullback breaks below 75, that would be even better—but will the main players really give an opportunity to pick up cheap chips? Who knows.)
