A recent report from Galaxy Securities notes that on September 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve officially raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. This move directly lifts the system’s risk-free yield, putting the global macro liquidity environment once again under pressure for marginal tightening.
From an asset-pricing perspective, the rise in the risk-free rate is reshaping the valuation anchor for equity assets. In particular, it puts pressure on high-valuation growth sectors that are highly sensitive to forward cash flows. However, the tech and AI main theme has not cooled off; instead, it has accelerated the transition from a “forward narrative” driven purely by speculation to a “current realization” phase underpinned by actual earnings. On the first day of the rate hike, hard-tech segments within the supply chain that demonstrate strong “blood-making” (cash-generating) capabilities still held up solidly.
In traditional financial markets, this kind of structural divergence often means that capital is accelerating toward high-quality assets with genuine liquidity and solid fundamentals. While a high-rate environment suppresses risk-free preference in the short term, it also forces speculative bubbles to clear faster, laying a healthier upside structure for assets with robust fundamentals.
In the crypto market, the same rational macro capital screening logic applies. During the phase of separating truth from falsehood, the liquidity resilience of leading core assets such as $BTC becomes even more pronounced. As speculative bubbles are squeezed out, risk assets—after completing a technical pullback to test key support levels—may in fact be poised to enter a right-side rally driven by a more solid chip structure and supported by long-term capital. #Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
From an asset-pricing perspective, the rise in the risk-free rate is reshaping the valuation anchor for equity assets. In particular, it puts pressure on high-valuation growth sectors that are highly sensitive to forward cash flows. However, the tech and AI main theme has not cooled off; instead, it has accelerated the transition from a “forward narrative” driven purely by speculation to a “current realization” phase underpinned by actual earnings. On the first day of the rate hike, hard-tech segments within the supply chain that demonstrate strong “blood-making” (cash-generating) capabilities still held up solidly.
In traditional financial markets, this kind of structural divergence often means that capital is accelerating toward high-quality assets with genuine liquidity and solid fundamentals. While a high-rate environment suppresses risk-free preference in the short term, it also forces speculative bubbles to clear faster, laying a healthier upside structure for assets with robust fundamentals.
In the crypto market, the same rational macro capital screening logic applies. During the phase of separating truth from falsehood, the liquidity resilience of leading core assets such as $BTC becomes even more pronounced. As speculative bubbles are squeezed out, risk assets—after completing a technical pullback to test key support levels—may in fact be poised to enter a right-side rally driven by a more solid chip structure and supported by long-term capital. #Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket