$BTC 's Reclaim Came During a Hawkish Fed Week, Not a Dovish One
Two catalysts landed in the same week that were expected to weigh on risk assets. The Senate's CLARITY Act cloture vote failed 49-50 on September 15. One day later, the Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4%, the first hike since 2023, with guidance pointing to a possible second hike before year end.
Bitcoin's response: a weekly close of $85.55K, up 5.39% on the week after tapping $87.4K, reclaiming the weekly 50-week SMA (currently near $78.2K) for the first time since November 2025, on the back of over $1 billion in short liquidations.
a reclaim is a structural signal worth tracking, not a confirmed trend change. It only means something once price retests $78K and holds as support instead of resistance. Spot ETF flows stayed choppy over the same week, a $746 million midweek outflow followed by a late recovery, a sign of hesitation rather than institutional conviction.
Two outcomes are worth mapping here rather than guessing at one: the 50W SMA holds on a retest and becomes the floor for the next leg, or the retest fails and this move gets reclassified as a squeeze inside a less friendly macro backdrop.
Verify first. Risk later. Scale slowly.
Backtest both scenarios on CryptoGates' Strategy Engine before adjusting exposure.
#BTC #BitcoinETF
Two catalysts landed in the same week that were expected to weigh on risk assets. The Senate's CLARITY Act cloture vote failed 49-50 on September 15. One day later, the Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4%, the first hike since 2023, with guidance pointing to a possible second hike before year end.
Bitcoin's response: a weekly close of $85.55K, up 5.39% on the week after tapping $87.4K, reclaiming the weekly 50-week SMA (currently near $78.2K) for the first time since November 2025, on the back of over $1 billion in short liquidations.
a reclaim is a structural signal worth tracking, not a confirmed trend change. It only means something once price retests $78K and holds as support instead of resistance. Spot ETF flows stayed choppy over the same week, a $746 million midweek outflow followed by a late recovery, a sign of hesitation rather than institutional conviction.
Two outcomes are worth mapping here rather than guessing at one: the 50W SMA holds on a retest and becomes the floor for the next leg, or the retest fails and this move gets reclassified as a squeeze inside a less friendly macro backdrop.
Verify first. Risk later. Scale slowly.
Backtest both scenarios on CryptoGates' Strategy Engine before adjusting exposure.
#BTC #BitcoinETF
