Ethereum’s price has violently driven up in a bullish long white candle, breaking through 2748; the current price is still stubbornly hanging around the high level of 2720. This leg of the rally, with a surge in volume, is incredibly fierce. What everyone is most unsure about right now is whether this runaway train can keep charging forward—whether it’s still worth chasing in.
My view is that the big-picture cards really are in the hands of the bulls. But after the topping climax, the sudden drop in volume is a massive red flag. Don’t get stuck in this awkward resistance zone and, in a moment of hot-headed impulse, end up paying the bill for someone else by chasing and getting yourself “bailed out.”
Just staring at the chart can easily make you miss the bigger picture. Let me tell you about a real thing that happened to me earlier this morning.
Around 11 in the morning, a young guy pushed the door open. He poked his head in, asked, “Is there a customer?” Then, “If so, I won’t bother.” There weren’t really many customers in the room—just me and the Deputy Governor of the bank drinking tea—so I invited him in to sit down.
When I talked to him, it turned out he was a salesperson selling tutoring materials. Born in 2004, just graduated, and studied machine tools. When he speaks, his thought process is a bit stuttery. Whatever you ask him, he has to repeat it to himself first, then give a vague answer.
I casually asked him a few questions about anti-piracy mechanisms and competitor comparisons. He didn’t know any of them—he was even more clueless than I was. I asked him how much money he makes a month, and he said five or six thousand, with a minimum of three thousand. I highly suspect he hasn’t closed a single deal. His reactions are slow, and his thinking is slow too.
Song the director asked him what his parents do. He said they work for a company. I advised him, “Go back to the factory and keep tightening bolts. This business track just isn’t right for you.” He still didn’t accept it. He said he’s stubborn and the more he’s opposed, the more he wants to do it—he thinks people should challenge themselves.
This kid doesn’t even have the basic ability to communicate, yet he’s still dreaming of earning several thousand a month. He doesn’t look at real market feedback at all—he only lives in his own enthusiasm.
By lunchtime we had to go eat, so we gently sent him away. Song the director of the branch said, “Your advice is right, but he definitely won’t listen.” I said, “Yes—poor people’s children won’t turn back until they’ve slammed their heads against the wall and gotten blood on it.”
We went to drink mutton soup and talked about how to do things. Song the director said that many people do things with “open-loop thinking”—they only think about what they want to do and never consider feedback from the outside world. People who truly achieve results are “closed-loop” thinkers: they continuously adjust their direction based on real-world feedback.
That young guy is the typical open-loop type—no matter what the customer needs, he rushes in and hard-sells.
This reminds me of a few days ago when my cousin said he wanted to set up a pure-electric heavy machinery business in Chongqing. He said a few big shots from within the system wanted to invest. I directly warned him: never take anyone else’s money—other than that of true wealthy people.
Because these guys aren’t qualified investors—they also have open-loop thinking. When they put in 100,000, they expect you to hand back 100,000 every year. They don’t understand investing at all, and the probability of losing is always higher than the probability of winning. They only think about how much profit they can take in a year, not about how big a risk they’ll have to absorb if they make a wrong move. Once they feel you’re giving them less, there are plenty of ways to “fix” you.
If you do business without understanding what consequences you’ll have to pay when you mess it up, you’re going to lose money sooner or later.
Look at the current#ETH —many people who chase the price calculate in exactly the same way as those big brothers who wanted to invest. They only look at profit and ignore the costs.
This surge really was fierce. The main force truly used real money to push the price above 2748. The lows underneath also got pushed up step by step. The big-picture cards are definitely held by the bulls. As the overall trend moves upward, no one denies that.
But if you look closely at what it does after surging through this peak. The price chops around near 2720, and the buy orders instantly show a gap—trading volume shrinks dramatically. It’s like the main force spends a lot of money kicking the door open, then turns around and realizes that the retail crowd who would follow in never actually came in.
Why don’t retail traders follow? Because in the area above, from 2748 to 2760, there’s heavy overhead sell pressure—stacked densely—waiting to get their positions “unlocked.” Once the main force realizes retail isn’t buying, it would absolutely be impossible for them to keep pressing higher with their own real money.
At this point, if you chase the price, it’s the classic open-loop thinking—completely ignoring the danger signals on the chart, especially the sudden collapse in volume. At this level, the price has already run too far, leaving it outside the safe cost line. You’ve taken too big a step, and the cash flow didn’t keep up—so you have to step back and catch your breath.
If you really want to go long, then just wait honestly. Wait for the price to drop back into the 2680 to 2700 area. This was a breakout platform from earlier, supported by solid buy orders. If you can hold steady here, it shows that the bulls are genuinely defending the board, not playing a fake move. This is the kind of entry level where you can keep risk under control and calculate a favorable risk-reward ratio.
In trading, it’s all about knowing when to enter and when to exit in moderation, adjusting your position based on market feedback. Don’t learn that sales guy—he hasn’t even figured out his opponent’s bottom cards, yet he still dares to push forward with his head held high.
👇 [Tonight’s Uncle Kong Trading Notes]
Tactical direction: Long.
Entry points: 2690 - 2700. Don’t go to your death at the high end—wait for a pullback, and only go in after it’s been tested and holds. That’s the rule for doing business.
Lifeline floor: 2666. If it breaks below this level, admit you’re wrong and exit—first priority is preserving your life; never hold the position and take the hit.
Take-profit range: Reduce at 2748 / Fully close at 2790.
Strategy timeliness: After the article was published, no trades were executed within 6 hours—the strategy failed.
Only make the money you can calculate clearly; leave the excitement to everyone else.