$CRCL Current 91.67, up 5.745% in the past 24 hours, but the funding rate is 0. As an on-chain US stock contract, this rate feels a bit strange during politically sensitive periods—it suggests neither bulls nor bears are in a rush to make a move.
With the funding rate at 0 yet the price rising, this is a key signal: the market is waiting, and the buy-side likely comes from spot demand or short-term speculative positions, while the sentiment on the contract side hasn’t caught up. Now that the US election cycle has entered a critical stage, any rumor about tariffs on China or technology policy will directly hit targets in this CryptoLink sector. With the funding rate at zero, either leveraged longs haven’t built positions at scale yet, or shorts are waiting for clearer policy signals before entering.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: if suddenly a confirmed piece of news emerges that the US is easing tariffs on China, the shorts could get squeezed instantly—the funding rate would jump positive and the price would surge quickly.
A secondary effect is that if policy remains ambiguous, this kind of rate structure will drive away high-leverage players, worsening liquidity. Once volatility picks up, it becomes easier for small capital to control the price. For those holding long positions, costs are low, but they aren’t able to capture funding-rate gains. If the standoff drags on, they’ll likely close and switch positions.
Invalidation condition: if the price holds above 92.5 and the funding rate turns positive, it means the contract market is starting to chase longs, and my “wait-and-see” view would be wrong.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
With the funding rate at 0 yet the price rising, this is a key signal: the market is waiting, and the buy-side likely comes from spot demand or short-term speculative positions, while the sentiment on the contract side hasn’t caught up. Now that the US election cycle has entered a critical stage, any rumor about tariffs on China or technology policy will directly hit targets in this CryptoLink sector. With the funding rate at zero, either leveraged longs haven’t built positions at scale yet, or shorts are waiting for clearer policy signals before entering.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: if suddenly a confirmed piece of news emerges that the US is easing tariffs on China, the shorts could get squeezed instantly—the funding rate would jump positive and the price would surge quickly.
A secondary effect is that if policy remains ambiguous, this kind of rate structure will drive away high-leverage players, worsening liquidity. Once volatility picks up, it becomes easier for small capital to control the price. For those holding long positions, costs are low, but they aren’t able to capture funding-rate gains. If the standoff drags on, they’ll likely close and switch positions.
Invalidation condition: if the price holds above 92.5 and the funding rate turns positive, it means the contract market is starting to chase longs, and my “wait-and-see” view would be wrong.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CRCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?