BTC is currently hovering around $75,000. The price hasn’t seen a decisive breakdown, but the flow/inflows and outflows are more worth watching than the candlestick chart.
Latest full data shows that on September 15, US spot BTC ETFs recorded net outflows of about $450 million. The previous day saw net inflows of about $160 million; within a single day, the flows reversed rapidly, with IBIT and FBTC combined accounting for more than $370 million in outflows.
This doesn’t necessarily mean BTC will keep falling, but at least it indicates that institutional capital has not yet formed a stable takeover.
More sensitive is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is today. The market has already highly priced in a 25-basis-point hike; what will truly determine the next leg of the market is less about the words “rate hike” itself, and more about the rate path after the meeting and how investors vote once the news is released.
Next, I’ll mainly focus on whether the $75,000 area can hold, and whether the ETF continues to see multi-hundred-million-dollar outflows.