The Fed’s rate hike is already clearly telegraphed.
Predict the latest odds:
🔹 Hike by 25 basis points: 88%
🔹 Keep unchanged: 13%
🔹 Hike by 50 basis points: 2%
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. If it hikes by 25 basis points, the interest rate will rise from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, which will be the first rate hike since July 2023.
The market has fully priced in the 25-basis-point move. What truly determines $BTC
and the direction of the Nasdaq index is the dot plot and the post-meeting remarks:
If the guidance hints at a pause after the hike, it may mean the bearish impact is already priced in, and the market could drop first and then rebound;
If it suggests further hikes in December, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will continue strengthening. BTC will face pressure, and altcoins will be the real disaster area;
If it unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged, risk assets could surge instantly, but the market may also question the Fed’s resolve to suppress inflation, causing long-term Treasury yields to actually rise.
What’s more troublesome is that three developments are happening at the same time this week: crypto regulation, U.S. dollar liquidity, and the yen carry trade. All three lines are simultaneously disturbing the market.
Predict the latest odds:
🔹 Hike by 25 basis points: 88%
🔹 Keep unchanged: 13%
🔹 Hike by 50 basis points: 2%
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. If it hikes by 25 basis points, the interest rate will rise from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, which will be the first rate hike since July 2023.
The market has fully priced in the 25-basis-point move. What truly determines $BTC
and the direction of the Nasdaq index is the dot plot and the post-meeting remarks:
If the guidance hints at a pause after the hike, it may mean the bearish impact is already priced in, and the market could drop first and then rebound;
If it suggests further hikes in December, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will continue strengthening. BTC will face pressure, and altcoins will be the real disaster area;
If it unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged, risk assets could surge instantly, but the market may also question the Fed’s resolve to suppress inflation, causing long-term Treasury yields to actually rise.
What’s more troublesome is that three developments are happening at the same time this week: crypto regulation, U.S. dollar liquidity, and the yen carry trade. All three lines are simultaneously disturbing the market.
