Rate hike probability 86.7%. This number is worth discussing on its own.
Many people can’t tell the difference between “probability” and “certainty.” An 86.7% figure means: among the smartest money in the market, 86.7% of the bets have been placed on the “rate hike” side. This is not a prediction—it’s a hand that’s already been dealt, with half the card showing.
But what’s even more worth noting is the 13.3%. The most expensive thing in the market is never the consensus—it’s the opposite of consensus. If there is truly a rate hike early Wednesday morning, BTC will most likely drop first and then stabilize—because the 86.7% expectations have already digested most of the shock in advance. The real black swan is: no rate hike. Then all positions currently set up for “a rate hike” will be trampled in reverse; and the upside will be more frightening than the downside.
I’m not making a prediction—I’m calculating the odds. High-probability events give you limited upside, while low-probability events are the source of both extreme profit and extreme loss. Everyone at the poker table and everyone at the trading desk understands that.
So I won’t gamble on Wednesday’s outcome. I will do just one thing: adjust my positions to a state where, no matter which way things land, I can keep playing.
#BTC #FOMC #加息 #美联储 #FuturaKey
Many people can’t tell the difference between “probability” and “certainty.” An 86.7% figure means: among the smartest money in the market, 86.7% of the bets have been placed on the “rate hike” side. This is not a prediction—it’s a hand that’s already been dealt, with half the card showing.
But what’s even more worth noting is the 13.3%. The most expensive thing in the market is never the consensus—it’s the opposite of consensus. If there is truly a rate hike early Wednesday morning, BTC will most likely drop first and then stabilize—because the 86.7% expectations have already digested most of the shock in advance. The real black swan is: no rate hike. Then all positions currently set up for “a rate hike” will be trampled in reverse; and the upside will be more frightening than the downside.
I’m not making a prediction—I’m calculating the odds. High-probability events give you limited upside, while low-probability events are the source of both extreme profit and extreme loss. Everyone at the poker table and everyone at the trading desk understands that.
So I won’t gamble on Wednesday’s outcome. I will do just one thing: adjust my positions to a state where, no matter which way things land, I can keep playing.
#BTC #FOMC #加息 #美联储 #FuturaKey
