Is everyone doing well? Click below to join the group for discussion
If anyone listened to my live broadcast or saw my market views last night, I suppose no one would be going long on the contracts, right? I can't guarantee how much can be made by going short, but at least not going long can minimize losses, because I mentioned yesterday that if it breaks below 70,000, there would be another wave of accelerated decline. I didn't expect this wave of accelerated decline to come so quickly, and it has dropped to around 60,000. Looking at the news last night, there was nothing particularly special; the real news to pay attention to is today's US-Iran negotiations.
My personal view on today's US-Iran negotiations is that it's highly likely they will each state their own demands and insist on their core interests. It feels like a "demand meeting", so it is very difficult to reach a principled framework consensus while maintaining their own interests. Moreover, it can't be resolved in just one negotiation; it requires N+ negotiations. And everyone understands Trump's style; the situation can change very easily. Even if a consensus is reached, it can be easily altered, and it's normal for “changes” to appear again after a while; in other words, there is no credibility to speak of, and policies can change overnight.
Therefore, the market also has its expectations. What we are looking at this time is whether the negotiation content can convey some relatively "positive" news, such as temporarily not escalating the tension in the situation, etc.
Currently, the clearing map is piled up with too many short positions. The latest ETF trading day on 2026-02-05 has shown an outflow situation, totaling $153 million;
Currently, the market has rebounded slightly. Spot can be bought in batches at the bottom. If you want to go short on contracts, you can only wait for a rebound first and then see. Of course, the overall direction is still in a downward trend.
The market has currently entered the cyclical box fluctuation period before Trump's term, so in the short term, the pressure above the market is around 66,000, the pressure above ETH is around 1,960, and the pressure above SOL is around 85.
Due to the influence of news today, there are uncertain factors, so it is recommended to wait for the news to come out before considering opening positions; in addition, spot trading is not affected, so buy the dips in batches.
If you want to trade contracts, please join the group for real-time analysis and contract points.