Citrini Research believes coordination between the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could drive U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds higher.
This analysis suggests that debt management policy, banking regulations, and the Fed’s balance sheet are converging into a new framework, which could cause the U.S. to issue fewer long-term bonds and issue more Treasury bills.
Under the scenario above, the Fed will continue to shrink its balance sheet, while commercial banks expand their balance sheets to absorb additional short-term Treasury debt. Reduced supply of long-term bonds could create downward pressure on long-maturity yields.
Citrini Research says they expect 30-year Treasury bonds to perform better than 5-year bonds, thereby narrowing the yield spread between the two maturities. There are currently no further details on when these policy changes will be implemented.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/thoa-thuan-kho-bac-fed-co-the-dinh-hinh-lai-thi-truong-trai-phieu/
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