The price of Bitcoin cooled off after failing to achieve a sustained breakout above US$ 100,000 in January. The rejection prompted profit-taking in the short term and led BTC to a consolidation phase.

Since then, the price behavior has indicated stabilization, not aggressive selling. On-chain and macroeconomic indicators now point to an improvement in conditions. Investor positioning suggests a slightly optimistic scenario for February.

Selling Bitcoin for profit highlights a pattern

A significant transition to a sustained appreciation of Bitcoin should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators. One of the main ones is the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio metric, based on the simple moving average of 90 days. Historical data shows that strong bull cycles only occurred when this index exceeded the level of 5.0.

Mid-cycle recoveries over the last two years followed the same dynamics. Whenever the index did not remain above this level, the highs quickly lost strength. A new advance above 5.0 would indicate the entry of fresh capital into the market. This would also indicate that profit-taking is being absorbed by new demand, rather than causing negative pressure on the price.

Macroeconomic conditions remain favorable following the Federal Reserve's most recent monetary policy decision. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of the year. Chairman Jerome Powell classified the rates as within a 'neutral range', signaling a possible prolonged pause, rather than further monetary tightening.

Market psychology also corroborates this scenario. According to data from Santiment, extreme sentiment levels often coincide with inflection points. Optimism and greed tend to emerge near tops, while pessimism and fear generally precede recoveries. Currently, caution prevails, which usually favors gradual advances.

Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs may be decisive in February. In the last three months, these funds have recorded consecutive net outflows. In November 2025, the segment had outflows of US$ 3.48 billion. December saw an additional US$ 1.09 billion in outflows.

January 2026 showed a significant slowdown, with outflows of US$ 278 million. This slower pace suggests that institutional selling pressure is weakening. If flows turn positive in February, demand for ETFs may strengthen market stability. New structural contributions would increase the likelihood of appreciation.

From a technical standpoint, the price of BTC continues to be traded within an expanding wedge pattern. Recently, the asset reacted at the lower line of this structure. Bitcoin is currently priced around US$ 88,321. To confirm strength, buyers need to push BTC above US$ 89,241 and reclaim the psychological level of US$ 90,000. Acceptance above this level would confirm the intensification of the upward trend.

February is traditionally positive for the price of Bitcoin, with an average historical return of 14.3%. The factors already mentioned indicate a comparable scenario for BTC, suggesting that a 14% rise would bring the asset to US$ 101,000.

A confirmed breakout from this wedge would open up space for higher targets. The first major target is near US$ 98,000. Thus, reaching this mark would likely be followed by a controlled correction to US$ 95,000. This consolidation zone will be crucial for establishing consistent support. Structures of this type often precede more intense upward movements.

The risk of decline remains a relevant factor. If selling pressure returns or the macroeconomic scenario worsens, the asset may not sustain current levels. A drop below US$ 87,210 would increase the risk of continued negativity. In this context, a pullback to US$ 84,698 becomes likely. This movement would nullify the optimistic projection and delay the breakout thesis.