After the soft PPI, the U.S. stock market hit new highs, while crypto has practically stayed put. For me, this is the key signal of the morning — the positive external backdrop is not yet translating into a noticeable increase in demand.

$BTC

Price is holding around $63.5K.

Support: $63K
Below: $62.2–61.3K
Resistance: $64.5–65.2K
The next higher target: $66K

As long as $BTC remains below $64.5-65.2K, it’s too early to talk about a normal continuation of the uptrend.

$ETH

Price is near $1.90K.

Support: $1 855-1 810
Resistance: $1 940-1 980

$ETH looks a bit stronger, but without breaking above $1 940, the move remains within the range.

$USDT.D

Main area - 8.30-8.40%.

A drop below 8.30% will give crypto more room to grow. A return above 8.40% will mean capital is flowing back into stables.

Derivatives

Total OI - about $44.4B.
Liquidations in 24 hours - about $146M.
Funding for $BTC and $ETH is moderately positive.

There’s no overheating, but aggressive position building isn’t visible yet.

My scenario

If $BTC holds $63K, it will return above $64.5-65.2K, and if $USDT.D goes below 8.30%, then you can expect a move toward $66K. In that case, $ETH gets room to $1 940-1 980, and $SOL - to $75.8-78.

If $BTC loses $63K and $USDT.D holds above 8.40%, the next zone becomes $62.2-61.3K.

I don’t want to rush into longs. Crypto needs to first confirm it’s ready to respond to the positive backdrop.