Weekly review, trading plan for the week | $BTC
First, another piece of cycle logic. In 2022 and 2018, deep in their bear phases, July printed a strong downside impulse: -31% in 2018 and -15% in 2022. I think it’s reasonable to expect something similar in the next 10 days, especially since it lines up with the main plan ↓
In the last post, I laid out the conditions for a move in both directions. The main target is still on the weekly uptrend, the $67,300 fractal. Over the last week, there were a few inversions of a tight range, $64,450 - $64,360. The most recent one was on the buyers’ side, with matching volume delta. Right now I’m watching LTF. A 1h VC would be enough to open longs.
Reminder: HTF is still in a monthly bearish narrative. The target sits on a monthly element. The first one that actually matters is $48,900. I’ve kept referencing the monthly SNR block at $71,400 - $48,900 in these reviews. If it’s already played out, and there was a precedent, then the first target is probably $48,900. If it’s still live, then $57,750 and $52,500 are still in play. A move toward any of those levels in the next 10 days would fit the pattern I started with, and a 1D VC after $67,300 gets taken out would confirm it technically and let you open the last swing-short of the cycle.
First, another piece of cycle logic. In 2022 and 2018, deep in their bear phases, July printed a strong downside impulse: -31% in 2018 and -15% in 2022. I think it’s reasonable to expect something similar in the next 10 days, especially since it lines up with the main plan ↓
In the last post, I laid out the conditions for a move in both directions. The main target is still on the weekly uptrend, the $67,300 fractal. Over the last week, there were a few inversions of a tight range, $64,450 - $64,360. The most recent one was on the buyers’ side, with matching volume delta. Right now I’m watching LTF. A 1h VC would be enough to open longs.
Reminder: HTF is still in a monthly bearish narrative. The target sits on a monthly element. The first one that actually matters is $48,900. I’ve kept referencing the monthly SNR block at $71,400 - $48,900 in these reviews. If it’s already played out, and there was a precedent, then the first target is probably $48,900. If it’s still live, then $57,750 and $52,500 are still in play. A move toward any of those levels in the next 10 days would fit the pattern I started with, and a 1D VC after $67,300 gets taken out would confirm it technically and let you open the last swing-short of the cycle.