#BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 After a massive market drop, traders are left wondering if we can see further declines, where the bottom lies, and if it's time to buy the dip. This article outlines the current market trends, key support and resistance levels, and breaks down three major trading tools to help manage risk. Reminder: All content reflects personal trading opinions and is for reference only; the market carries risks, and trading decisions are at your own peril.
1. Market Review: Price action aligns with predictions; shorts continue to pay off.
Between June 15th and 16th, when the market hit around 67000, I clearly warned that the market was under pressure at high levels and advised against chasing longs, focusing instead on short strategies. The subsequent price action continued to trend downwards, aligning perfectly with our expectations. The mid to long-term shorts positioned between 66500 and 67000 can still be held, with a core target of the 60000-61000 range for timely take profits. Yesterday's market saw extreme volatility, with the critical support level at 63600 broken, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.
II. Core trend: The C-wave decline is not over—no blind bottom-fishing is allowed
The market is currently in the second half of the C-wave decline. The downtrend cycle dominated by bears will still last 4–5 more months. The overall trend remains weak. For both short- and mid-term, the core idea is high-short; every rebound is an opportunity to short.
Most retail traders lose money because they bottom-fish against the trend after a big drop. The 20-day recovery bounce that began at 59,200 previously caused a buildup of large numbers of long positions trapped in the 63,600–64,800 range. Overhead selling pressure is heavy, and there is no workable room for a short-term exit. Currently, the C-wave decline has only completed half. The 59,000 prior low is highly likely to be broken. Bottom-fishing right now is like standing halfway up a mountain. Oversold rebounds are often traps designed to lure buys. Keep your hands in check, and you’ll profit.
III. Key offensive/defensive price levels (main reference)
The current market is consolidating around 62,500 at a low level. Bulls and bears are locked in a fierce tug-of-war, and the short-term upside/downside room is limited—so priority should be given to staying on the sidelines. Core resistance: 63,600 has turned from support into strong resistance. If the market rebounds to this level and you see a pressure signal, that is a high-quality opportunity to short. Short-term support: 62,200 provides minor short-term support; once it is lost, the market will most likely break below 61,000. Core short-term short target: the 60,500–61,000 range.
IV. Practical trading approach for three major trading tools
1. Spot: Stay fully on the sidelines and give up trying to bottom-fish. The decline cycle hasn’t ended and the bottom formation hasn’t been confirmed. Completely stop spot bottom-fishing to avoid burning through capital and raising holding costs. Once the bottom signals are clear, the strategy will be updated in a timely manner.
2. Options: Wait for the high-win-rate opportunities in July. In July, the market is highly likely to deliver a high-win-rate行情 where principal can be doubled. After that, we will capture band (swing) profits using a dedicated strategy that combines short-, mid-, and long-term approaches. This strategy is available only to managed members.
3. HY contracts: Trade in line with the trend by shorting, and strictly control risk. Adhere to the principle of only short, never long, and trade in the direction of the trend—don’t guess the top or bottom. When the big pancake rebounds to the 63,600 resistance area and you see a pressure signal, take a light-position short with targets at 60,500–61,000. Rigorously manage the take-profit/stop-loss (win-loss) ratio, set proper take-profit and stop-loss levels, and absolutely do not hold positions through adversity. The ETH “auntie” trend is weaker: it consolidates in the 1,630–1,680 range. If it rebounds to 1,680 and faces pressure, place a light short. For the short term, watch 1,620–1,630.
Special reminder: In the second half of the C-wave decline, volatility is intense and there are frequent needle-like wicks. All operations must be done with light positions. Cut losses quickly and move on with small losses. Avoid holding oversized positions through adversity.
V. Trading core summary
On the larger trend, the bearish cycle has continued for 4–5 months. Stay firmly with the high-short (bearish) mindset. Don’t gamble on bounces in the short term—keep a close eye on the 63,600 resistance level to look for short opportunities. In terms of execution, keep the approach of doing less and watching more: stay in spot without action, follow the futures trend, and wait for the July opportunity with options. For risk control, strictly follow four principles: keep light positions, set stop-losses, don’t hold positions through drawdowns, and don’t blindly try to buy the bottom.