I consider myself a veteran in the crypto space. Over the past two years, I've watched my wallet grow from four figures to six figures, without participating in private placements or snatching white lists, and I've been too lazy to even open WeChat groups. I code during the day and analyze K-lines at night, stepping into pitfalls, facing liquidations, and even making a half-year's salary in a single day. In the end, I realized that surviving is not about how great your skills are, but about sticking to a few 'basic' rules. Today, I'm sharing my heart with everyone; the words may be rough, but the logic is sound.
1. Quick rises and slow declines? It's likely that the big players are lurking in the bushes fishing.
The market suddenly spikes and then pulls back hesitantly, reminiscent of someone deliberately toying with you—don’t get too excited; this is often the big fish testing the waters. The real signal of a peak is a massive drop in volume, leaving no opportunity for hanging orders. I've seen too many people chase after this 'slow decline' and end up stuck halfway up the mountain. Remember, the big players are not short on patience; what they lack is a buyer.
2. Fast drops and slow rises? It might be that the major players are dismantling the platform.
After the flash crash, the rebound is soft, like a lagging internet speed. Don't think that a deep drop means it's the bottom; it might be that the big players are quietly pulling the ladder. By the time retail investors rush in to catch the falling knife, the last support is cut, leaving no time to escape. A weak rebound after a crash is even more dangerous than the crash itself.
3. No volume at high positions? That's the calm before the storm.
After a price surge, trading volume suddenly shrinks, and the market is eerily quiet—this is not a good sign. It indicates that no one is taking over, and the main players might be preparing to dump. I've experienced losses: last year, after Bitcoin surged to $120,000, it quickly consolidated and soon dropped below $85,000. Increased volume is not necessarily a peak, but low-volume consolidation is mostly a trap.
4. Volume at the bottom? You need to watch for the 'drama.'
A single day of massive volume may be a bait, but continuous volume for a week is the true signal of major players building positions. Just like an alarm clock that rings at eight in the morning, it needs to ring every day to wake you up. The real bottom takes time to form; be patient and wait for the volume 'drama,' don't chase after one-day trends.
5. Trading volume is the electrocardiogram of the market; candlesticks are just makeup shots.
Technical indicators in the crypto space can be faked, but trading volume cannot deceive people. Low volume represents a flat market, while high volume indicates funds are moving. I usually hide the candlestick charts when watching the market and only look at the trading volume—volume is the footprint of capital, and no matter how cunning the big players are, they must leave traces.
6. No obsession, and you can live long enough to see more.
I set three rules for myself: do not average down, do not stay up late holding positions, do not revenge trade. When cutting positions, act decisively; when holding no positions, feel at ease. The crypto market operates 24 hours, opportunities are always there, but if you lose your capital, it's truly gone. Being a bit slower, a bit clumsier, and a bit more timid can help you survive the cycle.
Written at the end.
These six rules sound simple, but they have helped me avoid countless pitfalls. The crypto space lacks smart people; what it lacks is those willing to 'survive' in a 'clumsy' way. If you are also afraid of the dark, why not try holding these few dim lights—while they may not illuminate the distance, they can light up your next step.
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