Morning Sharing
After the ADP data came out, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has not only not decreased but has risen to 89%. However, yesterday's market did not soar; even if Buffett came, he would still have to drop it for two days, with alternating large bullish and bearish candles.
This morning, BTC continued to test 940 upwards, evolving into a false breakout. As of the time of writing, this is already the third upward attempt, and each upward test shows a gradual weakening of strength, which can easily lead to a major reversal.
The BTC 1-hour cycle has already shown a top divergence, and there is a high probability of a small adjustment today. At this stage, still testing at a high level, it is primarily shorting with a target of 920, as there is relatively little room for movement.
From the candlestick pattern, BTC has formed a wedge, which is also a reversal pattern.
Now with a top divergence + wedge reversal + multiple false breakouts upwards, the probability of shorting is increasing, but it does not necessarily mean a reversal. It is recommended to look for patterns in the hour and find entry points in the 15-minute timeframe, then enter on the right side.
The 15-minute cycle is a 925-940 irregular box fluctuation. Those with rich trading experience can short high and long low within the box, but there will be many false breakouts.
ETH Analysis
ETH, BNB, and SOL are much stronger than BTC. After ETH retraced to 3100, it formed a gap and moved north, but it also formed a top divergence. The trend in the 15-minute timeframe is extremely clear and strong.
If you want to short, it is recommended to place a limit order at 3240 on the left side, with a stop loss of 10 US dollars and a small position for entry.
On the right side, it is recommended to enter after breaking the trend line, which has a higher win rate.
#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #美国ADP数据超预期 #美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH
