Bitcoin may be behaving as if a recession is just around the corner — even though macro data increasingly suggests the opposite.
According to André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, Bitcoin’s price action is currently reflecting the most pessimistic global growth outlook since the 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 FTX-driven market breakdown.
In a detailed analysis published on X, Dragosch compared Bitcoin’s implied macroeconomic signals with real-world global growth surveys from Sentix, ISM, and the Philadelphia Fed. His conclusion: Bitcoin is far more bearish than the underlying economic environment warrants.
Bitcoin’s Implied Macro Outlook Has Diverged Sharply
Dragosch’s chart reveals a striking split:
Bitcoin’s implied global growth signal (black line) has plunged well below -1 standard deviation, reflecting recession-level expectations.
Meanwhile, survey-based macro indicators remain near neutral — a sign that investors and businesses are not forecasting severe contraction.
This exact type of dislocation occurred during:
March 2020 (COVID crash) — followed by a 6x Bitcoin rally.
November 2022 (FTX collapse) — followed by Bitcoin’s climb from ~$15K to ~$70K.
Dragosch argues that the current risk-reward setup is again asymmetric:
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment… You’re not even remotely bullish enough.”
Market Sentiment Is Still Weak Despite Improving Macro
Even with Dragosch’s bullish implication, fear dominates the market:
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 20 (“Fear”)
Recent extreme low: 10 (Nov. 22)
One month ago: 39 (“Fear”)
Late Nov 2024 high: 84 (“Extreme Greed”)
This persistent fear contrasts sharply with improving macro expectations.
Bitcoin traded around $90,559 on Nov. 29, down:
0.8% in 24 hours
3% year-to-date
28% below its ATH of $126,080 (Oct. 6)
Weak sentiment + improving macro = a setup similar to past major reversals.
Macro Signals Are Turning Supportive
While Bitcoin’s price implies recession fears, forward-looking macro indicators suggest recovery:
The CME FedWatch Tool assigns an 86.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 bps in December.
A shift to easing would reduce financial tightening pressure — historically bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets.
This disconnect between Bitcoin’s implied recession outlook and improving macro expectations is exactly what Dragosch highlights as a potential mispricing opportunity.
Is Bitcoin Positioned for Another Post-Shock Rally?
If history repeats itself, extreme bearish macro pricing paired with stabilizing economic indicators has often preceded Bitcoin’s strongest multi-month rallies.
The key question:
Is Bitcoin once again underestimating the real macro environment?
Bitwise Research believes so — and the data suggests the market may be far too cautious at current levels.
