Bitcoin is currently trading at one of the most pivotal levels in this cycle, where it is positioned between long-term support on the chain and a wall of upper resistance formed by millions of short-term position holders experiencing unrealized losses.
Spot trading price $70,925 weekly change +2.74% weekly RSI (14) 33.59 decline from the all-time high -43%
Use the latest on-chain indicators from Glassnode alongside the weekly and daily technical charts to analyze the current situation of Bitcoin and determine what should happen next. Two clear scenarios emerge.
How pessimistic is the outlook for Bitcoin now? Four levels of acquisition cost are essential.
The latest risk indicator chart from Glassnode shows four main price models on-chain against Bitcoin's spot price. These models collectively revealed the market's position relative to the acquisition cost of different investor groups.
Realized price — $54,000
This average acquisition cost per coin on the network. Trading Bitcoin above this level means that the holder's average price is making a profit. This is the fundamental long-term support and is currently much lower than the spot price, which is considered a positive structural signal.
The true market average — $82,000
This average acquisition cost is classified by actual economic activity, excluding dormant coins. Currently, the spot price is below this level, meaning that a significant portion of active participants are experiencing unrealized losses.
Average active investors — $88,000
Indicates the average acquisition cost for active market participants. Trading at a much lower price than this level represents pressure on active investors and acts as upper resistance.
Acquisition cost for short-term holders — ($83–84,000)
Represents the average entry prices for new buyers (coins held for less than 155 days). With the spot price trading significantly below this level, short-term holders are experiencing unrealized losses — history shows that this is a continuous source of selling pressure, but it is also a prerequisite for a capitulation bottom.
Key takeaway: The spot price at $70,925 is above the realized price and below the other three indicators.
This places Bitcoin in a historically recognized pressure zone. It is not entering the deep bear market of 2022 (when the price fell even below the realized price), but is correcting mid-cycle where short-term holders are holding the currency at a loss and upper supply is large.
The overall structure of Bitcoin is in a key position.
The weekly chart (from August 2020 to now) presents the overall technical background.
Bitcoin peaked at around $126,000 in October 2025 and then corrected by about 43% to current levels.
The current price is retesting the previous cycle's all-time high in 2021 (~$69,000, the yellow line), which has historically turned from strong resistance to long-term support. This week's green candle shows early signs of defending that area.
The relative strength index is slightly above the oversold territory (below 30) after remaining there for several weeks in February 2026 (the blue marks). Historically, the relative strength index remained oversold in the bear market of 2022 for several weeks.
The current reading is approaching those levels, which may indicate either further decline or that a strong rebound is near. A positive divergence occurs when the price records a lower low while the relative strength index holds a higher low — an important signal to watch.
The MACD is approaching its first positive crossover (the yellow circle) on the weekly chart since May 2025. This forms a clear positive signal that has historically led to sharp increases.
During the 2022 bear market, even a positive MACD crossover failed to push the price to rebound.
The positive MACD crossover on the weekly chart forms a strong reversal signal, but it has not occurred yet.
Broken support, fragile crossovers, and key demand zone.
The daily chart (from January 2025 to now) presents the shorter-term picture, with actionable signals currently available.
The green dotted box on the daily chart, at around $73–74,000, represents the highest historical level in March 2024. This was an important resistance level that briefly turned into support and has now been broken down.
This breakout is technically significant: the price is currently trading below this structural level, which has turned into upper resistance. The lower level in February 2026 around $65,000 remains the main support below current prices.
The daily relative strength index recorded deep overbought levels in December 2025 and again in February 2026, then recovered to reach a neutral range between 40 and 50 (the blue segment).
This indicates a retreat from the violent selling wave, but upward momentum has not yet been confirmed. A daily indicator break above 60 signals a real change in direction.
The daily MACD lines indicate a positive crossover and are currently trading just above zero - an initial positive signal (the yellow circle). The histogram bars appear small and interleaved in color, reflecting a consolidation phase rather than a clear trend.
This crossover needs to be maintained, and the histogram must expand into the green area to confirm continued buying.
Gather all these indicators: Two scenarios and one dividing line.
The combination of Glassnode's on-chain data and both timeframes of technical analysis leads to two scenarios. The levels confirming or invalidating each scenario are clearly defined.
The bullish scenario: mid-cycle correction and continuation upwards.
The bullish scenario means that the $69,000 level (the previous cycle's all-time high) holds as support, with short-term holders capitulating, resetting the market for a new bullish round:
The price defends the weekly support area at $69,000 and forms a rising bottom on the daily chart.
The daily relative strength index breaks above 60 to confirm the recovery of upward momentum.
The daily MACD histogram expands into the green area as bar volume increases.
The price recovers the $73-74,000 level (previous support becomes resistance) — this represents the first major confirmation.
The price then targets the $80-84,000 area (True Market Mean + cost of short-term holders) — reclaiming this area confirms a bullish trend reversal.
On-chain: recovering the cost for short-term holders means their return to profitability, removing a major source of selling pressure.
The bearish scenario — deeper correction and structural breakout.
The bearish scenario indicates that the selling pressures from short-term holders stuck above outweigh the buying power, and the support of $69,000 fails, leading Bitcoin to seek lower values:
The price breaking the $69,000 level at the weekly close is the main signal to confirm the bearish trend.
The weekly relative strength index dropped below 30 and remained there, reflecting bear market conditions in 2022.
The daily MACD crossover for the bulls has failed, and the lines have retreated below zero.
Identify the next target for the drop: $65,000 (demand zone February 2026) — breaking here accelerates selling.
Target a deeper level: $54,000 (the realized price). Historically, the area where bear markets find their final bottom.
On-chain follow-up: The price approaching the realized price represents extreme fear, and historically, the area most likely for long-term entry.
General assessment: $69,000 is the dividing line.
The weight of the evidence currently leans towards a cautious bearish trend in the short term but positively in the medium to long term. Bitcoin is now in a historically recognized pressure zone — below the average cost of short-term holders and True Market Mean, but well above the realized price floor.
The weekly relative strength index is approaching the oversold region, and the daily MACD is gearing up for a bullish crossover, suggesting that the worst selling phases may be near, but confirmation has not yet been achieved.
Set the $69,000 level as a dividing line: maintain it, and the bullish scenario strengthens; if lost on a weekly close, much lower prices become the base scenario.