Bitcoin (BTC) has not managed to close above $70,000 for more than a month, and the cohort of short-term holders has been continuously recording losses since October 2025 – a pattern consistent with bearish market conditions, according to Glassnode's weekly on-chain report.
Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to positive territory and the flow of spot orders is improving.
The financing of perpetual contracts has turned negative, indicating a crowded short positioning rather than a renewed conviction from buyers.
What on-chain data shows
Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase for over a month within a range of $62,800 to $72,600, with each rejection above $70,000 accompanied by net profit-taking spikes exceeding $5 million per hour. Glassnode describes this as opportunistic profit-taking, rather than demand-driven buying.
The price sits between the realized price at $54,400 – the average cost of the entire circulating supply – and the 'True Market Mean' at $78,400, which tracks the base price of actively traded coins.
The 7-day exponential moving average of the spent output profit ratio of short-term holders (STH-SOPR) has remained below 1.0 since October 2025 and currently stands at 0.985, indicating that recent buyers are, on average, spending at a loss.
An accumulation cluster is forming near the middle of the range, but its intensity is weaker than in previous phases that preceded significant price expansions.
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ETF and derivatives flows
The 7-day moving average of net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs has turned positive after several weeks of persistent outflows. The 'cumulative spot volume delta' has also started to trend upwards on major platforms, with Glassnode noting a generalized improvement rather than isolated activity.
The funding rates for perpetual contracts have turned negative, meaning that short sellers are now paying a premium to maintain their positions.
This overcrowded positioning creates an asymmetric situation: if spot demand continues to recover, forced liquidations of short positions could amplify any bullish movement.
Options positioning
The short-term implied volatility has compressed towards the median zone of 50%, with the 1-week segment declining faster than the 1-month, indicating a lower urgency for very short-term hedging.
Put options continue to trade at a premium over comparable call options, but the skew has decreased from its recent peak.
Call option purchases represent 40.3% of total options activity over the past 24 hours, compared to 27.8% in the previous week.
About $2 billion of negative gamma is concentrated around the strike at $75,000, where market maker hedging flows could reinforce any bullish price movement.
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