Amid the recent difficulty of Bitcoin to maintain above the critical level of $105,000, on-chain data indicates a concerning trend.
The total amount of BTC in circulation held by short-term investors (STHs) has increased in recent days. Historically, this signals negative pressure on the price in the short term.
According to Glassnode, the supply of these investors fell to 2.24 million coins on June 22, the lowest level of the year. Since then, there has been a significant recovery.
Currently, the total has returned to 2.31 million BTC. This group—formed by more recent or reactive participants, known as 'weak hands'—has accumulated about 70,000 coins during the period.
Total BTC supply held by short-term investors. Source: Glassnode
STHs are investors who hold their coins for less than 155 days and are historically more sensitive to price fluctuations. Therefore, when this group increases their positions, the asset may become more exposed to declines, as these participants tend to liquidate quickly at the first sign of instability, intensifying volatility.
At the same time, data from Glassnode indicates a slight decrease in the holdings of long-term investors (LTHs). According to the provider, this group reduced its exposure by 0.13%, a movement that reinforces caution in the market.
Total BTC supply held by long-term investors. Source: Glassnode
As these investors reduce their positions, the structural support of the market tends to weaken, leaving BTC more vulnerable to sharp variations in the short term.
BTC struggles under bearish weight
BTC's BBTrend indicator shows growing red bars, reflecting the gradual increase in selling pressure. This pattern indicates that sellers are slowly regaining control, with the downward movement gaining strength.
The BBTrend assesses the direction and intensity of a trend based on the expansion and contraction of the Bollinger Bands. When it displays red bars, this indicates that the asset's price is repeatedly closing near the lower band, evidencing persistent selling pressure and suggesting room for further declines.
If the scenario remains, BTC may extend its retracement and reach the region of $104,709.
BTC Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
On the other hand, an increase in demand could push the price of BTC above $107,745, with potential advancement up to the region of $109,310.
The article 'Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast: Decline Ahead or Chance of Recovery?' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.