Why do we say that there are many market conditions that we cannot understand?

交易指南 · 2023-11-11T12:59:41.000Z

But just because you don’t understand it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it? Kant said that what we know is only the appearance of the world, only the phenomenal world. As the essence of things, that is, "things in themselves", we cannot recognize them. What interests me is that he very seriously and calmly makes us aware of the limitations of human understanding. This kind of awareness is very accurate in the futures market and helps us think. For example, do we really know whether the market will rise or fall every time? Do you really know what factors ultimately determine each rise and fall? Is it market supply and demand or arbitrary speculation by big players? Market supply and demand are determined by several reasons? Is there another unknown factor? Which big companies are controlled by the combination of Zonglianheng and Zonglianheng? Is it because a group of funds on the opposite side defected at the last moment that one side won by chance? Because the development trend of too many major events is determined by accidental small things, even if we have extraordinary logical thinking and rational thinking capabilities, even if we are as wise as Einstein, we will definitely be able to analyze and recognize these accidental events and the consequences determined by these accidental events. Big trend? The answer is obviously no.

But not understanding something doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it. Kant said that we only know the appearance of the world, the phenomenal world. We cannot know the essence of things, the “things in themselves”.
What interests me is that he makes us realize the limitations of human cognition in a serious and calm manner. This kind of awareness is very accurate and helpful for us to think when applied to the futures market. For example, do we really know whether the market will rise or fall each time? Do we really know what factors ultimately determine each rise and fall? Is it the supply and demand of the market or the arbitrary speculation of large investors? How many reasons determine the market supply and demand? Is there another unknown factor? Which companies are the big investors? Is it because a fund on the opposite side turned against them at the last minute that one side won by chance? Because the development trends of too many major events are determined by accidental small things, even if we have extraordinary logical thinking and rational thinking ability, even if we are as wise as Einstein, can we analyze and recognize these accidental events and the major trends determined by these accidental events? The answer is obviously no.
Based on this understanding, we should not be like Zhuge Liang in the drama who always believes in his own judgment 100% (this is only in the drama, the real Zhuge Liang is much more mediocre) and stubbornly does not make second-hand preparations. It must be clear that we actually cannot understand many market conditions. But why can we do most of the market conditions?
First, we can consider doing it if we are 70% sure, because if we do it this way, we can win seven out of ten times, and we win in terms of probability.
Second, if the ratio of profit to loss is above 3:1, it can also be done. Because three times to one is not a loss. Of course, it is more ideal to have both. We should also try to find such opportunities to increase the winning rate.
Third, you can follow the general trend, and if it goes against the trend, you can exit and wait and see. This also conforms to the principle of reasonable risk-profit ratio arrangement. #BTC 
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